TOUCH THY HEART AND SAY I AM WITH YOU. WISHING A LOVING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 22 Feb 2020

 

U.S. business activity in February fell to its lowest level in more than six years as companies pulled back on fears of slow global growth, according to private survey data. U.S. home sales sputtered in January, the latest sign that some of the lowest interest rates in half a century are failing to offset the high prices and limited inventory keeping many buyers on the sidelines. If central banks want to get the most out of crisis-era stimulus tools the next time they are needed, they should be deployed “early and aggressively” when confronting a downturn, new research claims. President Trump said the U.S. would consider a third round of aid payments for farmers who have borne the brunt of retaliation for U.S. tariffs for much of the past two years. UK manufacturers also feel the heat as EU trade battles loom. China's passenger car sales tumble 92% in first half of Feb. while BOE's Tenreyro says hit to global growth could be large. India Inc’s effective tax rate falls for first time in 6 years although Auto sector's woes may not end anytime soon while service providers feel the pain as India Inc faces working capital squeeze. India-focused PE/VC funds create record by raising $11.7 billion in 2019 while Forex reserves touch lifetime high on rise in foreign currency assets.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed governor backs temporarily higher inflation target

[I]  UK manufacturers feel heat as EU trade battles loom

[I]  Fear of post-Brexit tariffs forces groups to rethink dependence on overseas markets

[I]  Eurozone’s manufacturing slump eases despite coronavirus 

[I]  Government bonds rally as concerns drip back into market

[I]  Economists should learn lessons from meteorologists

 

REUTERS

[I]  India set to dazzle Trump as trade rows fester

[I]  U.S., India at odds over trade as Trump heads for encounter with Modi - U.S. officials

[I]  China prisons, Korean church spread coronavirus woes as fears weigh on global markets, U.S. business

[I]  China's passenger car sales tumble 92% in first half of Feb. due to virus outbreak

[I]  Mercedes steering wheel to be outlawed after this season

[I]  Trudeau says rail blockades must end, indigenous protesters remain defiant

[I]  IMF urges Colombia to tighten fiscal adjustment, increase reserves

[I]  In next downturn, Fed may opt for quick, strong action

[I]  BOE's Tenreyro says coronavirus hit to global growth could be large

[I]  U.S. services, manufacturing sectors hit wall in February - Markit

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Singapore’s REIT Hub Ambition Pays Off With Most Foreign IPOs

[I]  U.S. Lifts Ban on Brazil Beef Imports After More Than Two Years

[I]  Flows Into Inverse ETFs Show Demand for Coronavirus Hedges

[I]  U.S. Dismisses Media Objections to Economic-Release Changes

[I]  China Could Use Offshore Wind to Power Entire Coast, Study Finds

[I]  The Hope That’s Driving Key Commodity Prices Higher

[I]  Fed Needs to Outline Plan to Fight Next Downturn, Economists Say

[I]  U.S. Existing-Home Sales Remain Solid Amid Scarce Inventory

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Hits U.S. Business Activity

[I]  Home Sales Sluggish as Lack of Inventory Frustrates Buyers

[I]  Central Banks Advised to Use Tool Kits Aggressively During Trouble

[I]  Trump Says Farmers Might Get More Aid

[I]  The U.S.’s Next Trade War? As China Clash Cools, Conflict With India Looms.

[I]  James P. Hoffa Won’t Stand for Re-Election as Teamsters President

[I]  Fed Official Proposes New Way to Target Inflation

[I]  Bank CEOs Courted By Regulator On Low-Income Lending Overhaul

[I]  Fed Officials Debate How to Incorporate Financial-Market Signals into Policy Outlook

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India Inc’s effective tax rate falls for first time in 6 years

[I]  Coal allocation for spot e-auction declines by 8% in April-January

[I]  India should bring in robust infrastructure for IP financing, says report

[I]  By March, consumers can expect price hikes and less choices on retail shelves

[I]  EU denies India’s charge that its pesticide limits create non-tariff barriers

[I]  FPOs should adopt two-level processing model, says co-op leader

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Auto sector's woes may not end anytime soon

[I]  Safe-haven yen takes a hit as hopes for China stimulus grow

[I]  Cabinet approves crop cover rejig, dairy sop schemes

[I]  Money flow from banks to NBFCs picks up in Oct-Dec

[I]  India & US delink trade deal from Donald Trump's visit, eye FTA

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Service providers feel the pain as India Inc faces working capital squeeze

[I]  Deal or no deal: Trump flip-flops keep all guessing ahead of India visit

[I]  Changes in CCI norms proposed to bring buyer cartels under competition law

[I]  India-focused PE/VC funds create record by raising $11.7 billion in 2019

[I]  Forex reserves touch lifetime high on rise in foreign currency assets

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
22 Feb 2020

THE SPIRITS OF LOVE, JOY AND PEACE IS IN ACCORD WITH SELF-CONTROL, THIS FRIDAY. WISHING A HARMONIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 21 Feb 2020

 

Climate campaigners, concerned about global warming, are turning their attention to the world of finance. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said it expects farm debt to rise to a record $425 billion in 2020, with no fresh government aid expected. U.S. energy firm Westinghouse is expected to sign a new agreement with state-run Nuclear Power Corporation of India for the supply of six nuclear reactors during U.S. President Donald Trump's visit next week, aiming to kickstart a long-running project although, as per the head of a U.S.-based business group, the two democracies are unlikely to reach a limited trade agreement in time as proposed new Indian tariffs have complicated negotiations. RBI rate committee torn between growth concerns, inflation fears as a majority of MPC members see space to cut interest rates further to boost economic growth, but the timing of any cuts would be critical. Corporate India's effective tax rate falls for the first time in six years while India ranks 77th on sustainability, 131st in child flourishing index rankings as per UN report. Japan's factory activity shrinks at fastest pace since 2012 while soft inflation adds to Japan's economic woes keeping BOJ under pressure while airlines warn of first global traffic drop since 2009 on virus.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Investors brace for losses in Argentina debt talks

[I]  Climate campaigners turn their fire on financial world

[I]  Big Tech companies want to act like governments

[I]  PBoC will help China recover quickly from coronavirus

[I]  Tax changes risk loss of a valuable resource pool

 

REUTERS

[I]  Westinghouse set to sign pact with NPCIL for nuclear reactors during Trump visit

[I]  RBI rate committee torn between growth concerns, inflation fears

[I]  U.S.-India trade deal unlikely before Trump's India trip - business group

[I]  Japan's factory activity shrinks at fastest pace since 2012 on coronavirus jolt

[I]  Soft inflation adds to Japan's economic woes, keeps BOJ under pressure

[I]  Outbreak will not change China's commitments to buy U.S. goods: senior U.S. official

[I]  India set to import record LNG volumes

[I]  Summit standoff as EU leaders grapple with Brexit-sized hole in budget

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Disagreement on Japan Evacuees; Cops Quarantined: Virus Update

[I]  Japan Price Gains Buoyed by Energy Offer BOJ Little Comfort

[I]  Fannie-Freddie May Be Freed With Treasury Backstop, Mnuchin Says

[I]  Brazil Government Resists Bid to Make Central Bank Target Growth

[I]  Virtual-Reality World Turns Digital Currency Into Cold Cash

[I]  Turkish State Banks Move to Lift Lira as Market Rout Deepens

[I]  Airlines Warn of First Global Traffic Drop Since 2009 on Virus

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Dim Farm Forecast Extends Into 2020

[I]  The U.S.’s Next Trade War? As China Clash Cools, Conflict With India Looms.

[I]  Fed Minutes Show Comfort With Economy, Rate Stance

[I]  IRS Offers Tax-Break Clarity to Accelerate Carbon-Capture Projects

[I]  Fed’s Kashkari Expects Rates to Remain Steady

[I]  Trump Supports Sales of High-Tech Products to China, in Blow to Hawks

[I]  Fed’s Clarida: ‘It’s a Good Picture’ for Economy, Watching Coronavirus Risks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  FinMin allows waiver of late fee for delayed clearance of import containers from China

[I]  Prolonged coronavirus outbreak could be disruptive for India Inc: Crisil

[I]  AEPC appeals to TN CM for separate export promotion policy

[I]  Corporate India's effective tax rate falls for the first time in six years

[I]  India must invest $109 bn to halve its road fatalities: World Bank report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  US left wondering what could have been as India setback beckons

[I]  Cabinet approves crop cover rejig, dairy sop schemes

[I]  Govt approves changes in PMFBY to make it optional for farmers

[I]  India & US delink trade deal from Donald Trump's visit, eye FTA

[I]  Indo-US trade deal: The ball is now in Washington's court

[I]  India ranks 77th on sustainability, 131st in child flourishing index rankings: UN report

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  High-powered meet today to salvage stranded thermal power projects

[I]  Every penny counts as GST officers send demand notices to companies

[I]  Govt takes a call to save telecom firms, but no relaxation likely on AGR

[I]  RBI unveils 5-yr financial inclusion strategy: Here're key recommendations

[I]  Govt rolls out 1% additional ad-hoc incentive for garments and made-ups

[I]  ETF flows show signs of revival in emerging markets, but India an outlier

 

MARKETS (06:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12037;  USDINR DGCX: 71.6375;  DJIA Mini: 29115;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7405;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23545;  EUR-USD: 1.0790; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.78;  Gold (Spot): 1620

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

21 Feb 2020

MESMERISING IS TO BREATHE WITHIN DEEP WOODS. WISHING A SPELLBOUND DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 20 Feb 2020

 

India clears accord on intellectual property rights with U.S. Ahead of his first official trip to India, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and India were working on a major trade deal but he was not sure if it would be completed before the U.S. presidential election in November. FED officials signaled growing optimism about the U.S. economy last month, before the coronavirus outbreak in China began to cloud prospects of firmer global growth in 2020. Britain will prioritise access for high-skilled workers from around the world in its post-Brexit points-based immigration system, setting out its plans to put an end to a reliance on "cheap labour from Europe". Big Tech will have to share data under EU proposals while a Reuters poll suggests that U.S. economy will dodge coronavirus blow, but risks to downside. China cuts benchmark lending rate to prop up virus-hit economy while Argentina lowers key rate to 40% extending world’s deepest cuts and Indonesia moves closer to rate cut on virus. Govt creates tech group to chart the tech landscape for India whereas In a first in India, Karnataka is drafting separate labour law for gig workers. Law ministry may prepare Cabinet note for Aadhaar-voter ID linking soon.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Big Tech will have to share data under EU proposals

[I]  Bankruptcy risks rise for US shale

[I]  Fed sees ‘more favourable’ US economic outlook

[I]  Virus exposes western universities’ reliance on China

[I]  Germany set to force social media to report hate speech

[I]  Brussels and UK trade accusations ahead of Brexit talks

[I]  EU’s richest countries dig in heels over budget

 

REUTERS

[I]  Trump says working on a very big trade deal with India, but will take time

[I]  EU leaders to clash over money as Brexit blows hole in budget

[I]  World Bank pandemic bond under pressure as coronavirus spreads

[I]  EU trade chief downbeat on China accord, other Asian deals

[I]  U.S. economy to dodge coronavirus blow, but risks to downside - Reuters poll

[I]  India clears accord on intellectual property rights with U.S.

[I]  China cuts benchmark lending rate to prop up virus-hit economy

[I]  UK heralds end of 'cheap labour from Europe' with post-Brexit immigration system

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Euro Is Swept Up in Global Funding Frenzy and Set for More Pain

[I]  Gold Just Hit a Seven-Year High on Virus Fears

[I]  Australian Unemployment Climbs Despite Full-Time Jobs Surge

[I]  Johnson’s Fiscal Splurge Gets Green Light From Investors

[I]  More Than 64% of Venezuela’s Sales Are Now in Foreign Currency

[I]  China Rolls Out Legal Game Changer for $5 Trillion Bond Market

[I]  IMF Says Argentina’s Debt Levels Unsustainable After Review

[I]  Argentina Lowers Key Rate to 40% Extending World’s Deepest Cuts

[I]  Indonesia Moves Closer to Rate Cut on Virus: Decision Guide

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Minutes Show Comfort With Economy, Rate Stance

[I]  The U.S.’s Next Trade War? As China Clash Cools, Conflict With India Looms.

[I]  Fed’s Kashkari Expects Rates to Remain Steady

[I]  Trump Supports Sales of High-Tech Products to China, in Blow to Hawks

[I]  Peering Through the Coronavirus Murk Into China’s Economy

[I]  U.S. Sanctions Subsidiary of Rosneft Over Alleged Venezuela Oil Exports

[I]  Newsletter: Trump Pushes Back Against China Hard-Liners

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Transition to BS-VI fuel on track, say auto/oil industry bodies

[I]  Trump, Modi to discuss defence, security, energy

[I]  Prolonged coronavirus outbreak could impact India’s auto supply chain: ICRA

[I]  Cargo volumes may take a hit: ICRA Ratings

[I]  ‘Agro-processing offers challenges and opportunities for co-op sector’

[I]  Green push: Govt revamps crop cover scheme, prunes premium subsidy

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Economic toll of coronavirus continues to rise

[I]  Money flow from banks to NBFCs picks up in Oct-Dec

[I]  Consumer durables growth to pick in last quarter of FY20, says official

[I]  Govt creates tech group to chart the tech landscape for India

[I]  In a first in India, Karnataka is drafting separate labour law for gig workers

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  'Saving big deal for later': US President Trump dashes trade pact hopes

[I]  With or without US trade deal, regulatory issues remain for both countries

[I]  Aadhaar-voter ID linking soon? Law ministry may prepare Cabinet note

[I]  PMFBY scheme: Cabinet makes crop cover optional for loanee farmers

[I]  MPs' panel for dilution of default definition, but RBI flags concerns

[I]  Should the MPC focus on core or headline inflation? RBI must debate

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12114;  USDINR DGCX: 71.6375;  DJIA Mini: 29348;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7457;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23637;  EUR-USD: 1.0798; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.75;  Gold (Spot): 1610

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
20 Feb 2020