THIS WEEKEND WILL MARK A LASTING IMPACT IN LIFE; MAKE IT IMPACTFUL FOR OTHERS TOO. WISHING AN AMAZING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 12 Oct 2019

 

India's industrial output shrank at its fastest rate in more than six years in August, reflecting the impact of an economic slowdown that could prompt the central bank to cut its key policy rate for the sixth time in December. U.S. consumer sentiment unexpectedly rises to three-month high. The biggest U.S. banks are expected to kick off the earnings season on a sour note next week due to falling interest rates, which may have pressured net interest margins enough to cause the sector's first year-over-year earnings per share decline in three years. U.S. President Donald Trump sounded an optimistic note on Friday as high-level trade talks with China entered a second day, while Beijing indicated it was open to a “partial” deal that would avoid a planned hike in tariffs on its goods this month. The Federal Reserve said it would begin buying Treasury bills on Tuesday to boost its balance sheet and avoid a recurrence of the unexpected strains experienced in money markets last month. Global risk 'confluence,' as tariffs, Brexit, weaker forecasts collide. Yield Curve Recession Signal Fades as Haven Sell-Off Deepens.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Brussels to hold intensive Brexit talks with UK

[I]  Climate protest group sees surge in funding as it goes global

[I]  US agrees limited trade deal with China

[I]  Global economy is at risk from monetary policy black hole

[I]  Working age needs a more flexible approach

[I]  Pensions tax relief rules ‘in need of reform’

[I]  Continuing rise of the 40-year mortgage

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's industrial output shrinks at fastest rate in more than six years

[I]  India's September passenger vehicle sales dive 24% as slowdown persists

[I]  Indian festival fails to buoy gold demand; China awaits trade verdict

[I]  Japan's capital braces for what could be worst typhoon in 60 years

[I]  Bruised U.S. banks expected to report earnings decline

[I]  Trump sees 'good things' in trade talks; China dangles partial deal

[I]  Global risk 'confluence,' as tariffs, Brexit, weaker forecasts collide

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed to Start Buying $60 Billion of Treasury Bills a Month From Oct. 15

[I]  Fed’s Plan to Buy Treasury Bills Could Be an Expensive Ordeal

[I]  China Sounds Warning on Australian Ties After Minister’s Barbs

[I]  QE, or Not QE? Impact of Fed Bond-Buying Will Depend on Treasury

[I]  ECB Governing Council Is Turning Page After Spat, Villeroy Says

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Unexpectedly Rises to Three-Month High

[I]  Yield Curve Recession Signal Fades as Haven Sell-Off Deepens

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S., China Reach Truce on Trade

[I]  Fed Will Purchase Treasury Bills at Least Into Second Quarter of 2020

[I]  Trump Signs Executive Order to Offset Agencies’ Increased Administrative Spending

[I]  Fed Gives Large Banks a Break on Postcrisis Rules

[I]  Social Security Benefits to Rise 1.6% in 2020

[I]  WSJ Survey: Most Economists Say Manufacturing in Recession

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Goyal to stress on safeguards against import surges, better services deal at RCEP meet

[I]  Number of crorepati taxpayers up 20%

[I]  Indian oil refiners jolted by five-fold rise in freight rates

[I]  India now imports skilled labour for infra projects

[I]  Why strong monsoon rains are not necessarily good news for Indian farmers

[I]  Factory output turns negative, clocks slowest pace in 7 years

[I]  Auto sales continue to be on slow track in September: report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  RBI gets into clean-up mode, post PMC mess

[I]  Slowdown begins to hurt India's industries

[I]  RBI remains net seller of dollar in Aug; sells $4.1 billion

[I]  Forex reserve hits lifetime high of $437.83 billion

[I]  Modi-Xi could discuss roadmap to address widening trade deficit

[I]  IIP shrinks 1.1% in Aug on dismal consumer, capital goods output

[I]  Govt working to create information system on stressed companies

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Downward spiral: Industrial output shrinks by 1.1%; at nearly 7-year low

[I]  Focus on self-regulation at meet to discuss digital content players

[I]  Utility vehicle sales buck slowdown trend due to high discounts, launches

[I]  'Crorepatis' rise by 16,345 in AY19: Here's a look at direct tax data

[I]  Facing tight liquidity, NBFCs step up offshore fundraising exercise

[I]  Non-US banks have $1.4 tn at risk in the event of crisis, warns IMF

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

12 Oct 2019

SOMETHING AMAZING IS ABOUT TO HAPPEN THIS FRIDAY. WISHING AN ENJOYABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 11 Oct 2019

 

The rating agency (Moody) expects a moderate pickup in real GDP growth and inflation over the next two years. Indian retail inflation probably reached a 12-month high in September, but still leaving room for further interest rate cuts because it's expected to remain below the Reserve Bank of India's target, according to a Reuters poll. The International Monetary Fund said that Countries around the world should urgently begin accelerating efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and the best way to do that is through implementation of carbon taxes and global cooperation. Top U.S. and Chinese negotiators met for the first time since late July to try to find a way out of a 15-month trade war as new irritants between the world's two largest economies threatened hopes for progress. Singapore Central Bank Is Set to Join Global Policy Easing Tide.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Johnson and Varadkar see ‘pathway’ to a Brexit deal

[I]  Toronto smart city plan hinges on waterfront land compromise

[I]  Trump trade team’s unified front tested in China talks

[I]  Draghi ignored in-house ECB advice on QE restart

[I]  India and China face off over Himalayan flashpoint

[I]  Washington watches as EU steps up scrutiny of Big Tech

[I]  Fed drops toughening liquidity rules on foreign banks

 

REUTERS

[I]  India seeks safeguards in China-led trade pact

[I]  Indian miners reject plan to link national coal index to foreign prices

[I]  U.S. backs Brazil for OECD membership, but Argentina first

[I]  Sterling shines on Brexit hopes, yen eases on trade optimism

[I]  U.S., China resume high-level talks to end grueling trade war

[I]  India's exports of gems, jewellery fall 6.2% in September

[I]  Day 1 of U.S.-China trade talks ends with hopes for limited deal

[I]  Markets dance to Trump's trade tunes

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  What to Watch to See if World Economy is Heading Into Recession

[I]  Singapore’s Luxury Apartment Market Is Hot, Thanks to China

[I]  Abu Dhabi Wants to Change How a Fifth of Global Oil Is Priced

[I]  New Hedge Funds Survive Better in Asia Than the U.S.

[I]  Nonsense Market Moves Have Investors ‘Exhausted’ by Trade Talks

[I]  Norway’s Outgoing Oil Regulator Is Upbeat Over Industry’s Future

[I]  Singapore Central Bank Is Set to Join Global Policy Easing Tide

[I]  Trade Talk Flop Would Hurt Stocks More Than Mini-Deal Would Help

[I]  Health Care Is Driving Growth in Canada’s Job Market

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  WSJ Survey: Most Economists Say Manufacturing in Recession

[I]  Trump to Meet With China’s Top Trade Negotiator on Friday

[I]  U.S. Inflation Cooled at the End of the Summer

[I]  ECB Minutes Show Lagarde Will Inherit a Fractured Institution

[I]  Fed’s Kashkari: If Data Continues As It Has, Another Rate Cut Is Warranted

[I]  Fed Adds $88.1 Billion to Financial System in Repo Transaction

[I]  Fed's Kaplan: Reserving Judgment on Need for Another Rate Cut

[I]  Newsletter: A Crack in the Labor Market and a Pivotal Moment for the U.S. and China

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Moody's cuts India's growth forecast to 5.8 per cent for FY20

[I]  Festive season hiring continues amid muted job growth

[I]  Gem, jewellery export dips 6% in September

[I]  India’s engineering exports to China up 58% in Aug

[I]  Monsoon withdrawal gathers speed over North-West

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Why world's 2.8 billion consumers are tense

[I]  Opec chief says deeper oil cut an option amid weaker 2020 outlook

[I]  India's August rice exports drop 29% on weak African demand: Govt

[I]  India jumps to 7th spot in Brand Finance Nation ranking

[I]  Why a third of the world’s consumers are suddenly nervous to spend

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Revenue crunch prompts govt to consider GST rate hike on low-tax products

[I]  Dairy companies see milk procurement price stabilising at higher levels

[I]  How auto companies are wooing reluctant buyers amid slowdown gloom

[I]  UDAY comes a cropper, puts power distribution companies in the red

[I]  Gem and jewellery export down 7.6% to Rs 1.3 trillion in first half

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11275;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1125;  DJIA Mini: 26535;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7127;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21740;  EUR-USD: 1.1017; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.83;  Gold (Spot): 1496

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
11 Oct 2019

ALWAYS, THERE IS A POSSIBILITY TO ADD FUN TO YOUR STORY. WISHING AN EMPOWERING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Oct 2019

 

India's monsoon rains started withdrawing from the northwest region, marking the most delayed retreat of the seasonal rainfall. Federal Reserve officials grew more worried when they cut interest rates last month that slowing global growth, exacerbated by the U.S.-China trade war, could sap domestic hiring and economic activity, according to minutes of the monetary-policy meeting.  A proposed agreement on how countries should tax multinational companies wouldn’t just target technology firms that are predominantly American. China offers to buy extra US goods to ease trade war. Hong Kong Is Sinking Into a Recession With No Recovery in Sight. A third of the world’s consumers are suddenly nervous to spend.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  OECD takes aim at tech giants with tax shake-up

[I]  EU ill-equipped to face China and US, trade chief warns

[I]  China offers to buy extra US goods to ease trade war

[I]  US accuses Iran of lying about oil delivery to Syria 

[I]  UK housebuilders brace for triple blow to finances

[I]  China is cornering Africa’s ecommerce market

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. tariffs on China are working: U.S. Secretary of Commerce

[I]  China lowers expectations for U.S. trade talks after blacklist: officials

[I]  U.S. weighing China currency pact as part of partial trade deal: Bloomberg

[I]  BOJ urges Asia to speed up efforts for smooth phase-out of Libor

[I]  India's monsoon starts withdrawing in delayed retreat

[I]  Decreasing U.S. job openings point to cooling labour market

[I]  EU ready to make 'major concession' on Brexit deal: The Times newspaper

[I]  China lowers expectations for U.S. trade talks after blacklist - officials

[I]  Federal Reserve policymakers increasingly divided on way ahead, minutes show

[I]  Tougher U.S. sanctions make Cuba ever more difficult for Western firms

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hong Kong Is Sinking Into a Recession With No Recovery in Sight

[I]  A Third of the World’s Consumers Are Suddenly Nervous to Spend

[I]  Soaring Gold Prices Put Indian Buyers Off Ahead of Diwali

[I]  Endless Wrangling Over Brexit Depresses U.K. Housing Market

[I]  Sweden Needs to ‘Borrow Like Crazy’ to Ease the Economic Pain

[I]  Japan’s Machine Orders Slide Raises Recession Worries

[I]  Fed Minutes Show Debate Emerges on When to Halt Rate Cuts

[I]  Mortgage Investors Warm to 15-Year Securities as Yields Fall

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Officials Last Month Worried Trade War Could Curb Hiring, U.S. Economy

[I]  U.S. Worker Demand Softened Over the Summer

[I]  Trade Talks Resume at Pivotal Moment in U.S.-China Relations

[I]  Elizabeth Warren Vows to Remake Capitalism. Businesses Are Bracing.

[I]  Facebook CEO to Testify at House Panel About Libra

[I]  Global Tax Proposal Widens Net Beyond Tech Giants

[I]  Newsletter: ‘The Global Economy Is Now in a Synchronized Slowdown’

[I]  Fed Minutes to Shed Light on Internal Debate Over Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Xi-Modi may announce additional confidence building measures at Mamallapuram summit

[I]  DA for Central govt employees/pensioners to go up by 5%

[I]  India slips 10 places to 68th on global competitiveness index

[I]  Global value chains can help developing countries improve growth outcomes: World Bank

[I]  Effects of global slowdown more pronounced in India: IMF chief

[I]  The US-China trade war is ‘a game of threats’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Cash-strapped realtors face double whammy

[I]  Dollar bond rush seen unabated even as returns drop

[I]  After onions, tomato price soar to Rs 80/kg in Delhi

[I]  Govt identifies hundreds of products for possible import curbs

[I]  Govts may get more power to tax MNCs like Google, Facebook

[I]  GST refunds denied to MNC back offices

[I]  Lower toll for EVs on the cards to push green mobility

[I]  Govt to now launch Rs 100 crore scheme for cooperatives

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India slips down 10 places to 68th rank on global competitiveness index

[I]  SBI to cut MCLR by 10 basis points across all tenors from Oct 10

[I]  Automotive sector becomes the new sweet spot for IT services firms

[I]  Centre's GST collections go up, states' portion dip in current fiscal year

[I]  No special liquidity window for NBFCs, says RBI deputy governor

[I]  Depositors feel the pinch as SBI cuts savings bank rate to 3.25%

[I]  Kind employers may offer gifts, but onus lies on employees to pay tax on it

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11282;  USDINR DGCX: 71.2800;  DJIA Mini: 26263;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7142;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21520;  EUR-USD: 1.0991; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.50;  Gold (Spot): 1509

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
10 Oct 2019