STORY OF LIFE IS JUST A SERIES OF BABY STEPS WITH WISH, WILL AND WIT. WISHING A WOBBLY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 07 Dec 2019

 

The U.S. job market strengthened in November, as employers added 266,000 jobs and unemployment matched a 50-year low, fuelling the economic expansion; FED will feel comfortable maintaining their wait-and-see posture on interest rates after robust U.S. hiring. on contrary, the Canadian economy unexpectedly shed jobs in November and the unemployment rate rose to its highest level in more than a year, marking a retrenchment for a jobs market that has largely been a bright spot in recent years. Imports of Chinese goods fell in October after the U.S. imposed new tariffs on consumer goods, and the overall trade deficit narrowed on a drop in imports and exports. German industry hit by biggest downturn since 2009 with its output falling by 5.3% in year to October, weighing on Eurozone growth outlook. RBI has made NEFT transactions system available 24x7 from December 16. Rabi sowing crosses 400 lakh hectares a hope against slump causing auto component sales decline 10 per cent in first half and auto parts makers shed 1L jobs. RBI’s consumer confidence index dips in November coinciding onion prices zooming  to Rs 165 a kg while its imports reaching by Jan 20.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Opec and Russia agree deeper production cuts to prop up oil

[I]  Robust US jobs data show labour market’s resilience

[I]  November gains surpass expectations despite global trade and economic uncertainty

[I]  German industry hit by biggest downturn since 2009

[I]  Brazil’s booming credit markets fan hopes of ‘revolution’

[I]  Venezuela’s refugee crisis demands co-ordinated action

[I]  US tariffs will hit the American dinner party the hardest

[I]  Argentina puts austerity sceptic in charge of debt talks

[I]  The American labour market is entering largely unexplored territory

 

REUTERS

[I]  Saudi delivers deeper cuts as OPEC+ oil producers back new pact

[I]  Mexico thanks Trump for holding off on terrorist designation for drug cartels

[I]  Trade war goes digital: countries eye tariffs on Internet economy

[I]  Strong U.S. job growth showcases economy's resilience 

[I]  China to waive tariffs on some U.S. soybeans, pork in goodwill gesture 

[I]  Column: U.S. economy set fair for 2020, provided trade truce holds

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Good, Bad and Ugly: Decisive Week May Set Course for Currencies

[I]  OPEC’s Oil Surprise Came as Skeptics Were Doubting Price Rise

[I]  Robots in Finance Could Wipe Out Some of Its Highest-Paying Jobs

[I]  Consumer Credit in U.S. Rises More Than Forecast in October

[I]  Blame the Financial Crisis for More Expensive Christmas Trees

[I]  Repo-Market Minnows Say Fixing the Mess Means Going Beyond Big Banks

[I]  Larry Kudlow Says the U.S. and China Are Discussing the Amount of Farm Purchases

[I]  Bond Traders Trim Bets on 2020 Fed Rate Cut on Jobs Strength

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Strong U.S. Hiring Eases Concerns About Economy

[I]  November Jobs Report Affirms Fed Officials’ Make-No-Moves Stance

[I]  Trump Official Says ‘No Arbitrary Deadlines’ for China Trade Deal

[I]  Canadian Economy Shed Jobs in November

[I]  American Firms Import Fewer Chinese Goods

[I]  Trump’s Tax Cuts Reduce U.S. Burden to One of Lowest in the World

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI’s consumer confidence index dips in November

[I]  One lakh temp jobs gone in 10 months till July: ACMA

[I]  Rabi sowing crosses 400 lh

[I]  Coffee becomes part of farm-suicide belt

[I]  Fate of Indian carbon credits worth thousands of crores 

[I]  Men's grooming market grows beyond hair and beard products

[I]  Auto component sales decline 10 per cent in first half

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Auto parts makers shed 1L jobs due to slump

[I]  Free WiFi now at 5,500 railway stations

[I]  RBI fixes rate on floating bond 2031 for next 6 months

[I]  A prolonged rout looms for India bonds as RBI pulls support

[I]  Forex kitty continues to swells, scales past $451 bn mark

[I]  Consumers in India turn most pessimistic in more than five years

[I]  India trying to set up IPR office on US model

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  New power sector distribution scheme to have a capital outlay of Rs 2 trn

[I]  Govt hopes to hit bull's eye on divestment, meet Rs 1.05-trn FY20 target

[I]  Bankers will be allowed to work without any fear, assures PM Modi

[I]  Govt refuses to budge on FDI compliance by e-commerce companies

[I]  CII calls for GST cut, expansionary policy to pull economy out of slowdown

 [I]  Can't compare GDP data with consumer spending report, says govt panel

[I]  RBI to make NEFT transactions system available 24x7 from December 16

[I]  New RBI guidelines likely to help MFIs become small finance banks

[I]  Onion prices zoom to Rs 165 a kg; imports to reach by Jan 20, says govt

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
07 Dec 2019

IT’S TIME TO CREATE STORIES; ITS FRIDAY AGAIN. WISHING A FUN-FILLED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 06 Dec 2019

 

Oil producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to cut output by an extra 500,000 barrels a day in the first quarter of 2020 but stopped short of pledging action beyond March. Asian governments step up stimulus as economic growth stalls while ECB says it may need its own digital euro if payments drive fails. The U.S. now has lower taxes than all but three countries in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s cabinet approved a $120 billion stimulus program, citing the same global economic risks that have led central banks in the U.S. and Europe to cut interest rates while the Federal Reserve Bank of New York added $107.4 billion in temporary liquidity to financial markets. Growth takes a back seat as RBI revises inflation projection upwards in view of rising food prices while sharply cutting GDP forecast to 5% from 6.1%  and keeping repo rate unchanged at 5.15% with accommodative stance. OECD says more reforms needed to boost jobs, incomes while government may come up with more measures to arrest slowdown. India's manufacturing capacity utilisation declines to the lowest ever while panel considering ways to boost revenue suggests 5% GST slab may be increased to 6%. The Indian government has decided to withdraw a circular on intermediary services under the GST, a major relief for corporates, especially multinational companies. Government sources indicate that India may force social media platforms to offer user verification.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Future of the UK on the line in the general election

[I]  EU gives green light to sustainable investment rules

[I]  Greece woos the wealthy with ‘non-dom’ tax breaks

[I]  Brussels steps up row over global digital tax deal

[I]  Russians charged over global bank internet fraud

[I]  Central bank talk of launching cryptocurrencies is bluff

 

REUTERS

[I]  India may force social media platforms to offer user verification - government sources

[I]  BOJ's low-rate policy not behind megabank's fee moves: Aso

[I]  World Bank adopts $1 billion-plus annual China lending plan over U.S. objections

[I]  Japan firms brace for economic contraction after Olympics, seek more stimulus - Reuters poll 

[I]  Government's loan bonanza seen a temporary salve and a long-term pain

[I]  OPEC, allies agree to deepen oil output cuts

[I]  Modest U.S. growth outlook static despite hopes for trade reprieve - Reuters poll

[I]  UK jobs market wanes in November as demand for staff fades - REC

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K. Labor Market Freezes Amid Brexit, Election Uncertainty

[I]  Oil Sputters After OPEC+ Fails to Nail Down New Output Target

[I]  Ending Pakistan’s Boom-Bust Cycle Is Central Bank’s New Plan

[I]  Asian Governments Step Up Stimulus as Economic Growth Stalls

[I]  India’s Economy Is Sputtering. But Its Stock Market Powers Ahead

[I]  ECB Says It May Need Its Own Digital Euro If Payments Drive Fails

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Mnuchin Working Closely With Fed, Bank Regulators on Repo Market Issues

[I]  Trump’s Tax Cuts Reduce U.S. Burden to One of Lowest in the World

[I]  China Says U.S. Trade Talks Remain on Track

[I]  The U.S. Furniture Industry Is Back—but There Aren’t Enough Workers

[I]  Japan Approves $120 Billion Stimulus Package as Economic Clouds Gather

[I]  Fed Adds $107.4 Billion in Short-Term Liquidity to Financial Markets

[I]  Newsletter: The U.S. Now Has One of the Lowest Tax Burdens in the World

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Relief for back-office firms: Govt withdraws GST circular on intermediary services

[I]  WTO Appellate Body will soon become dysfunctional

[I]  Canada Pension Plan Investment Board to invest up to $600 million in NIIF

[I]  Listing of high-potential farm goods, global alerts to boost exports

[I]  Government is examining Direct Taxes Code: FM

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt wants you to verify social accounts

[I]  RBI set to tighten screws on co-op banks

[I]  Forex reserve hits a new high of $451.7 billion

[I]  View: It's time for a fair distribution of GST proceeds between Centre and states

[I]  No decline in household consumer expenditure: Govt

[I]  RBI revises inflation projection upwards in view of rising food prices

[I]  Government may come up with more measures to arrest slowdown

[I]  More reforms needed to boost jobs, incomes: OECD

[I]  RBI's downgrading of FY20 growth means the $5 trillion GDP goal may have to wait longer

[I]  State governments not keen to levy GST on exempted goods

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India's manufacturing capacity utilisation declines to the lowest ever

[I]  5% GST slab may be increased to 6%: Panel considering ways to boost revenue

[I]  RBI keeps repo rate unchanged at 5.15%, stance stays accommodative

[I]  RBI's policy surprise: Pause on rate cuts may hit real estate, auto sectors

[I]  Fifteenth FC may have kept devolution of divisible tax pool unchanged

[I]  Growth takes a back seat: RBI sharply cuts GDP forecast to 5% from 6.1%

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12069;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3725;  DJIA Mini: 27713;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7155;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23360;  EUR-USD: 1.1108; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.32;  Gold (Spot): 1476

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
06 Dec 2019

TODAY IS GOING TO BE THE BEST DAY; CELEBRATE IT LIKE NEVER BEFORE. WISHING A REJOICING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 05 Dec 2019

 

India ranks 73rd in UN index assessing e-commerce readiness while Union Cabinet clears Personal Data Protection Bill. India will launch its first debt exchange-traded fund comprising debt of state-run companies in a bid to allow retail investors to buy government debt. India's demand for diesel will remain subdued until the second half of 2020. RBI is seen making sixth interest rate cut, but no cure for economy's ills whereas Losses from frauds due to white-collar crime rise 80% from last year. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said that the U.S. has “serious concerns” with proposals being discussed in the global rewrite of corporate tax rules. Service-sector activity across the U.S. expanded in November whereas the U.S. nonfarm private sector added 67,000 jobs same period, missing economists’ expectations by a wide margin. Japan manufacturers turn less pessimistic with service sector mood brightens. Germany is set to end 2019 with big budget surplus that then shrinks. New Zealand gives banks seven years to raise capital buffers while Chile holds key rate as protests sink peso and halt growth and Brazil to review third-quarter growth after export data debacle. Romania says it has buffer to stave off any funding pressure although analysts feel that the end of imaginary stimulus may be a real risk to markets in 2020.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Countries vow to press ahead with digital taxes despite US threat

[I]  Brussels on collision course with Germany over budget row

[I]  India’s citizenship law passes first hurdle

[I]  Trump slams Trudeau over apparent mockery at Nato summit

[I]  Japan ratifies US trade deal in record time

[I]  Brussels urged to resist state-backed foreign rivals

 

REUTERS

[I]  India to launch first debt exchange-traded fund

[I]  India's services industry returns to growth in November on strong demand - PMI

[I]  Japan unveils $120 billion fiscal package to shore up growth

[I]  Britain, EU expected to agree free trade deal, cable to gain: Reuters poll

[I]  RBI seen making sixth interest rate cut, but no cure for economy's ills

[I]  India's diesel demand growth seen stuck in low gear until mid-2020

[I]  Japan manufacturers turn less pessimistic, service sector mood brightens - Reuters Tankan Poll 

[I]  Germany to end 2019 with big budget surplus that then shrinks - paper

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trade Deal Back On, Abe Fiscal Stimulus, Weak U.S. Data: Eco Day

[I]  China Traders Suspect State Support Amid Odd Stretch of Calm

[I]  Japan’s Abe Says Stimulus Opens Path to Future Growth

[I]  Australian Shoppers Flatline as Tax, Rate Cuts Fail to Fire

[I]  New Zealand Gives Banks Seven Years to Raise Capital Buffers

[I]  Repo Turmoil Prompts U.S. Regulators to Scrutinize Market Dangers

[I]  Chile Holds Key Rate as Protests Sink Peso and Halt Growth

[I]  Brazil to Review Third-Quarter Growth After Export Data Debacle

[I]  Argentine Central Bank Chief to Resign as Fernandez Takes Over

[I]  Romania Says It Has Buffer to Stave Off Any Funding Pressure

[I]  End of Imaginary Stimulus May Be a Real Risk to Markets in 2020

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  The U.S. Furniture Industry Is Back—but There Aren’t Enough Workers

[I]  U.S. Services Sector Grew Solidly in November

[I]  On Trade, France and U.S. Go It Alone—to World’s Detriment

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Added 67,000 Jobs in November

[I]  China Threatens Retaliation Over Proposed U.S. Sanctions

[I]  Treasury Secretary Mnuchin Raises Concerns Over Global Tax Talks

[I]  Fed Pumps $70.1 Billion in One-Day Liquidity Into Financial Markets

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Oil marketing firms’ bid to encourage alternative fuels

[I]  Delhi HC stays interest levy on profiteered amount under GST

[I]  Commerce Ministry division to track FTA utilisation

[I]  India's drugs regulator asks States to halt online drug sales

[I]  Services PMI expands for first time in three months

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt mulling a 'riskier' plan to ease cash crunch

[I]  Centre pushes for eNAM in states without APMCs

[I]  Government to check for inconsistencies in Household Expenditure survey

[I]  India still has long way to go on reforms, says World Bank

[I]  India ranks 73rd in UN index assessing e-commerce readiness

[I]  Union Cabinet clears Personal Data Protection Bill. Major takeaways from Cabinet meet

[I]  Government set to close loss-making PSUs

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  E-commerce, tech firms call for clarity on Personal Data Protection Bill

[I]  Slowdown effect? As capital goods orders dry up, Pune's MSMEs falter

[I]  White-collar crime: Losses from frauds rise 80% from last year, says survey

[I]  Govt's ethanol-blending policy needs stimulus to adhere to 2022 timeline

[I]  Services sector activity grows on strong demand in Nov, PMI rises to 52.7

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12072;  USDINR DGCX: 71.6275;  DJIA Mini: 27637;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7193;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23300;  EUR-USD: 1.1082; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.17;  Gold (Spot): 1475

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
05 Dec 2019