SMILE - THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS LEADS THE DEEP WITHIN. WISHING A GIFTED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 03 Jul 2020

 

The employment report, based on survey data largely collected in mid-June, doesn’t reflect recent government-mandated business closures and related layoffs as the U.S. unemployment rate fell to 11.1% in June. The two industries that suffered the most job loss because of the coronavirus pandemic and related shutdowns—hospitality and retail—saw the strongest gains the last two months as the U.S. economic engine restarted. According to projections released by the Congressional Budget Office, the jobless rate is expected to remain in double-digits through the end of the year, and the economy will shrink an estimated 5.9%. Trade between the U.S. and the rest of the world slowed further in a sign of the continuing toll that the pandemic was taking on the global economy. Unemployment in Europe rose only slightly in May, a testament to the success of government programs that pay the wages of workers put on furlough by their employers.

Nitin Gadkari says that India needs Rs 50-60 lakh cr foreign investments to bolster coronavirus-hit economy while Care Ratings forecasts India's GDP may contract by 6.4% in FY21 whereas rating firms seek to withdraw nearly half of India debt ratings. RBI asks banks to reclassify MSMEs as per revised criteria while bank credit grows 6.18% to Rs 102.5 trn, deposits up 11%.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Delistings threaten to spoil Singapore exchange’s challenge to HK

[I]  US jobless rate dropped to 11% in June before virus spike

[I]  Businesses in Hong Kong fear collateral damage from security law

[I]  Australia plans to offer a haven for Hong Kong residents

[I]  Data point to soaring US gun sales in June

[I]  Slowdown in EU job losses defies economists’ predictions

[I]  Irish finance minister urges EU not to give up on global tax talks

[I]  Merkel urges swift agreement on EU coronavirus recovery plan

 

REUTERS

[I]  Japan will not revive state of emergency as Tokyo COVID-19 cases rise

[I]  Asian shares hit four-month high as U.S., China recoveries gather pace 

[I]  German watchdog chief calls Wirecard scandal a 'massive criminal act'

[I]  U.S. job growth roars back, but COVID-19 resurgence threatens recovery

[I]  Gap in U.S. Black and white unemployment rates is widest in five years

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  OPEC Cuts Output to Lowest Since 1991 as Virus Slams Oil Demand

[I]  Currency Is Key in Contest Between Asia’s High-Yielding Bonds

[I]  China v U.S., India’s Bright Spot, Job Growth Optimism: Eco Day

[I]  China Buys More U.S. Corn and Cotton But Still Lags Deal Pledge

[I]  Chaos in Gold Markets Ripples to Other Precious Metals

[I]  World’s Fifth-Largest Reserves Buffer Gives India Some Comfort

[I]  German Parliament Backs ECB Bond-Buying After Court Standoff

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Unemployment Rate Fell to 11.1% in June

[I]  Businesses Hit Hard by Coronavirus Claw Back Jobs

[I]  CBO Sees Double-Digit Jobless Rate Through 2020, GDP to Shrink 5.9%

[I]  U.S. Trade Deficit Widened in May

[I]  Treasury Reaches Loan Agreements With Five Major Airlines

[I]  Europe Avoids Jobless Surge as Furlough Schemes Cushion Economic Decline

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Insolvency regulator IBBI expands role of insolvency professional entities

[I]  India’s trade deficit with China reduces to $48.66 bn in FY’20

[I]  India discussing H-1B visa suspension with US: MEA

[I]  FCI’s burden to reduce with additional grains given out through PMGKAY

[I]  No GST on salary paid to expats working in Indian project

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India has many data security time bombs to defuse

[I]  India needs Rs 50-60 lakh cr foreign investments to bolster coronavirus-hit economy: Nitin Gadkari

[I]  India's GDP may contract by 6.4% in FY21: Care Ratings

[I]  Rating firms seek to withdraw nearly half of India debt ratings

[I]  RBI asks banks to reclassify MSMEs as per revised criteria

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  PE-VC fundraising plunges 94% in Q1: outlook for second half remains bleak

[I]  Garib Kalyan Yojana to clear FCI's bulging stocks, but may hurt finances

[I]  Covid policy response: Rural spending skyrockets, defence bears the brunt

[I]  Bank credit grows 6.18% to Rs 102.5 trn, deposits up 11%: RBI data

[I]  India's first private train to be on track by April 2023: Indian Railways

[I]  IMD predicts heavy rainfall in Mumbai, issues orange alert for next 2 days

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10580;  USDINR DGCX: 74.9175;  DJIA Mini: 25739;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6203;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22212;  EUR-USD: 1.1238; Crude Oil (WTI): 40.33  Gold (Spot): 1775

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

03 Jul 2020

FEEL THE BLESSING; IT’S COMING IN ABUNDANCE - EVERY MOMENT. WISHING A PIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Jul 2020

 

Factory activity around the world showed further signs of recovery in June as governments eased restrictions, but weak demand still weighed on production and employment. A recovery that started out like a V is changing shape - after recovering rapidly from mid-April through mid-June the economy has shown signs of sputtering in the past two weeks. ILO warns about another Covid-19 wave can result in loss of 340 million jobs whereas Fed’s Daly says recovery could take four years if Virus contained. Federal Reserve policymakers are looking at reviving a Great Recession-era promise to keep interest rates low until certain conditions are met, in a bid to deliver a more rapid recovery from the recession. The US administration said companies face legal risks for involvement with entities in China blamed for human-rights abuses. Latin America is seen heading for deepest slump since at least 1901 while OPEC cuts output to lowest since 1991. China’s Central Bank is signalling a slower pace of easing whereas emerging market inflows increase nine-fold in June. India's factory activity contracts for 3rd straight month and new projects fall over 50% in June.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Europe outperforms Wall Street as investors look across the Atlantic

[I]  Russians set to back Putin’s move to extend his rule

[I]  Hong Kongers look to the exits as China imposes security law

[I]  Johnson the Brexiter offers open door to people of Hong Kong

[I]  Germans rushed to reopen wallets after lockdown eased

[I]  US Treasury takes stake in trucking company with $700m bailout

 

REUTERS

[I]  Record U.S. job growth expected in June, but masks labor market weakness

[I]  Huge acceleration of clean energy innovation needed to meet net zero target - IEA

[I]  Emerging market FX pickup exposed to reversal after new coronavirus surge: Reuters poll

[I]  U.S. House passes bill to sanction Chinese banks over Hong Kong

[I]  Fed revisits idea of pledging to keep interest rates low

[I]  Russians grant Putin right to extend his rule until 2036 in landslide vote

[I]  Emerging market inflows increase ninefold in June -IIF

[I]  Fed mulls promises for the future, appears to discount yield curve control

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Mulls Explicit Forward Guidance, Stays Wary of Yield Targets

[I]  OPEC Cuts Output to Lowest Since 1991 as Virus Slams Oil Demand

[I]  Yield-Curve Control Experts Debate How Fed Could Juice the Yen

[I]  Aussie Bets Diverge as Virus Fears Collide With Growth Optimism

[I]  India’s Growing Economic Reliance on China May be Tough to Break

[I]  China’s Central Bank Is Signaling a Slower Pace of Easing

[I]  Latin America Seen Heading for Deepest Slump Since at Least 1901

[I]  Recovery Could Take 4 Years If Virus Contained, Fed’s Daly Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Debated Options to Provide More Economic Support

[I]  A Recovery That Started Out Like a V Is Changing Shape

[I]  Fed’s $600 Billion Main Street Lending Program Sees Lukewarm Interest

[I]  Global Manufacturing Shows Fresh Signs of Recovery

[I]  U.S. Warns CEOs Over Supply Chains Tied to Rights Violations in China

[I]  USMCA Takes Effect but Trade Tensions Remain

[I]  U.S. Treasury to Lend $700 Million to Trucking Firm YRC

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST collection in June exceeds ₹90,000 crore

[I]  Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.2 in June, butbusiness conditions continue to deteriorate

[I]  Consumers at the receiving end as power bills give them a rude shock

[I]  No change in small savings rates for July-Sept quarter

[I]  Customs department gives clearance to cargo imported from China

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Next up: Trade curbs on countries illegally holding Indian land

[I]  MSCI defers raising India’s weight in global indices

[I]  Auto sales improve in June

[I]  Aid for NBFCs come with riders attached

[I]  Private equity tap to run dry for realty firms

[I]  GST Council may look at rationalising rates

[I]  India's factory activity contracts for 3rd straight month in June

[I]  Curbs on companies from countries illegally holding Indian land

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Digital payments rebound in June after blip in April transactions

[I]  Another Covid-19 wave can result in loss of 340 million jobs: ILO

[I]  Govt committed to reforms, make tax structure simple: FM on GST day

[I]  No cash benefits for ESIC subscribers without bank account details

[I]  World Bank grants India $750 mn emergency funding to help small businesses

[I]  New projects fall over 50% in June as coronavirus lockdown takes hold

[I]  June records 'excess' rainfall, good precipitation expected in July: IMD

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10492;  USDINR DGCX: 75.6925;  DJIA Mini: 25621;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6159;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22146;  EUR-USD: 1.1263; Crude Oil (WTI): 39.84  Gold (Spot): 1769

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Jul 2020

A SIMPLE SMILE OF NATURE FOR MAKING OUR NATURE SIMPLE. WISHING AN EASY DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 01 Jul 2020

 

Fitch cuts India growth projection to 8% for FY22; pegs contraction at 5% this fiscal while Govt's total liabilities rise to Rs 94.62 lakh crore in Jan-Mar FY20, Public debt accounts for 91% of it. Creative freelancers have been some of the hardest hit in the coronavirus-driven recession, according to economists. Performers, production crews, ride-share drivers and personal trainers were among the first to lose work and will likely be among the last to regain lost ground in the coming months. Mnuchin and Powell pledge additional relief to prevent lasting damage to economy. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin says he intends to work with Congress to help pass additional legislation to steer remaining funds from the PPP to the small businesses hit hardest by the pandemic. A string of recent signs of improvement points to the world’s second-largest economy recording positive growth for the second quarter. Survey finds that a third of top brands are likely to suspend social media spending while US are companies filing for bankruptcy at fastest pace since 2013. IMF chief says that Africa faces worst economic shock since 1970s while Dubai's economy shrank by 3.5% in first quarter whereas Zimbabwe central bank raises main lending rate to 35% as inflation soars.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China draws condemnation for new Hong Kong security law

[I]  Third of top brands likely to suspend social media spending, survey finds

[I]  US companies file for bankruptcy at fastest pace since 2013

[I]  Africa faces worst economic shock since 1970s, says IMF chief

[I]  Democrats’ climate plan promises net zero US emissions by 2050

[I]  Germany to restructure special forces to tackle far-right leanings

 

REUTERS

[I]  Indian private firms seen developing 15 million tonnes capacity coal mines this year - minister

[I]  China will not experience high inflation or deflation: central bank publication

[I]  As Japan re-opens, a hospital grapples with coronavirus aftermath

[I]  Asia's factory pain eases as region emerges from pandemic

[I]  U.N. backs changes to aviation emissions scheme in boost for airlines

[I]  EU sets out rules for 5G small antennas in boost for data capacity

[I]  Dubai's economy shrank by 3.5% in first quarter amid coronavirus crisis

[I]  Zimbabwe central bank raises main lending rate to 35% as inflation soars

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  India’s June Rally Seen Fading on Poor Earnings Outlook

[I]  From Fear in Wuhan to Oil Crash: Six Months in Emerging Markets

[I]  Australia House Prices Fall for Second Month as Shutdowns Bite

[I]  Europe Exchanges Reject Shorter Trading Hours Amid Virus Turmoil

[I]  Airlines Risk Extinction as India Refuses to Rescue Billionaires

[I]  Venezuelan Crude Output Falls for Sixth Month, Deepening Crisis

[I]  Argentina Weighs Earlier Coupon Payments as Debt Talks Stall

[I]  Direct Lending Boom Fizzles With Investors Looking Elsewhere

[I]  Argentina Creditors Urge Officials to Move Ahead on Debt Talks

  

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Mnuchin, Powell Pledge Additional Relief to Prevent Lasting Damage to Economy

[I]  In Los Angeles, an Economy Built on Freelancers Crumbles

[I]  Second Chance at Aid for Small Businesses Draws Support

[I]  Fed Keeps Options Open on Yield Caps

[I]  China’s Economic Recovery Picks Up More Momentum

[I]  Labor Department Proposes Fiduciary Exemption for Retirement Plans

[I]  Fed Opens Lending Program for New Issuance of Corporate Debt

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Eight core industries contract 23.4% in May

[I]  Handicraft exports may fall 40% this fiscal due to Covid-19

[I]  Free foodgrains, pulses scheme for poor extended till November, says PM Modi

[I]  Fiscal deficit touches 58% of budget estimate at May-end

[I]  June ends up with above-normal rainfall at 18 per cent

[I]  Mobility interventions, renewable energy can lead to significant savings, says NITI Aayog report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  With no tax, MNCs ramp up dividends

[I]  In a rare event, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu bonds yield less than G-secs

[I]  Non-food credit growth slows to 6.8% in May

[I]  Fitch cuts India growth projection to 8% for FY22; pegs contraction at 5% this fiscal

[I]  Govt's total liabilities rise to Rs 94.62 lakh crore in Jan-Mar FY20

[I]  March quarter current account ends in a surplus after more than a decade

[I]  Government may license import of ACs, TVs to check shipments

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Ban to hit Chinese companies, loosen their grip on Indian app market

[I]  Public debt accounts for 91% of Centre's Rs 94-trillion liabilities

[I]  States continue to tap cheap rates to borrow more than originally planned

[I]  FinMin told to levy tax on imported goods to boost local products: Pradhan

[I]  Sebi again eases compliance rules for processing of demat request

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10286;  USDINR DGCX: 75.7525;  DJIA Mini: 25622;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6146;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22248;  EUR-USD: 1.1225; Crude Oil (WTI): 39.79  Gold (Spot): 1784

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
01 Jul 2020