SWEET WISHES FOR A VERY SWEET PERSON. WISHING YOU A CHOCOLATEY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 09 Feb 2019

India could lose a vital U.S. trade concession, under which it enjoys zero tariffs on $5.6 billion of exports to the United States, amid a widening dispute over its trade and investment policies, people with close knowledge of the matter said. Indian bankers say piles of bad debt and the high cost of deposits mean they are unlikely to reduce interest rates on loans by as much as the central bank cut its key lending rate in a bid to spur growth.

Europe’s economy faces a daunting combination of weaker demand for its exports from China and elsewhere, the prospect of a messy divorce with the U.K. and political problems closer to home, the European Union warned. A much-watched experiment in Finland failed to provide evidence that offering people a guaranteed income is the answer to some of the insecurities caused by potentially profound changes in the jobs market.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]   Riyadh and Panama added to EU dirty money blacklist 

[I]   Desperation at the border as Venezuelans await aid 

[I]   No-deal Brexit risks rise as UK-Japan talks stall 

[I]   RBA cuts Australia GDP forecast as China slowdown worsens 

[I]   Australia calls emergency meetings amid climate crisis 

[I]   Rent controls are not the answer to the UK housing crisis 

REUTERS

[I]   U.S. considers withdrawal of zero tariffs for India: sources

[I]   Indian consumers cash in their gold jewellery as prices rally

[I]   China calls for peaceful talks to resolve Venezuela issue

[I]   U.S.-China trade talks resume next week, focus on intellectual property

[I]   EU countries agree on copyright reforms, deal in sight next week

[I]   U.S. fund managers brace for consumer slowdown

[I]   India's banks unlikely to match RBI's rate cut any time soon

[I]   China January new bank loans seen surging as PBOC keeps liquidity taps open: Reuters poll

[I]   RBI to cut rates again before elections, but no more: Reuters poll

BLOOMBERG 

[I]   Hedge Funds Start February With the Lowest Stock Exposure in a Year

[I]   What Crash? Big Oil Proves the Crude Price Is Just a Number

[I]   Ending D.C.'s Debt Obsession

[I]   Here's How the Pizza Market Is Shaping Up for Stocks in 2019

[I]   NYC Pensions Invest in Buyout Funds Union Says Profit From Jails

[I]   Three Big Banks Say It's Time to Hedge Against Emerging-Market Risk

[I]   Philippines Ends Budget Standoff, Approves 2019 Spending Plan

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]   Number of Workers Striking Across the U.S. Jumped in 2018

[I]   High-Rollers Cool Bets as Chinese Economy Slows

[I]   Experiment With Guaranteed Income Creates Less Stress but No Jobs

[I]   Fed’s Daly Unsurprised Economy Is Growing More Slowly

[I]   Early Data Show Slower Start to Tax Season

[I]   Eurozone Economic Forecasts Slashed

[I]   Trade Uncertainty Sends a Chill Through German Manufacturing

BUSINESS LINE

[I]   State FMs Group favours lowering GST to 5% on residential houses, 3% on affordable housing

[I]   India, Bangladesh ink pact for cooperation in medicinal plants, training civil servants

[I]   Govt, industry need to work together to develop defence equipment tech: Minister

[I]   India’s exports to China set to hit record high as market access widens

[I]   ‘Progress in education must for GDP growth’

[I]   Will SEBI’s new proposals turn building blocks of InvIT/REIT?

[I]   India rises 3 ranks in the Global Corruption Index! Really?

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]   Ordinances likely on key Bills after session

[I]   Only 61 earn over Rs 100 cr in India

[I]   Indian jewellers stock up; holiday dims activity elsewhere

[I]   Forex reserve again tops $400 billion level

[I]   Angel tax exemption may be hiked to Rs 25 crore

[I]   Auto loans likely to face downside risks on weak CV demand

[I]   India inflation seen speeding up in Jan but still below target

[I]   Government plans capital dose for regional rural banks

[I]   Big push for affordable housing, zero GST on cards

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]   Tax deducted from bank accounts of start-ups; I-T department clarifies

[I]   Payments industry recommends KYC bureau to Nilekani-led RBI committee

[I]   Direct tax mop-up at Rs 7.88 trillion in April-Jan: Govt informs House

[I]   Unemployment rises across religions, social groups, shows NSSO survey

[I]   Harmonisation of NBFCs to ease regulatory complications, say experts

[I]   High credit-deposit ratio restricts banks' ability to cut interest rates

[I]   Young Indians deserve to be a top priority for the state

[I]   Equity flows in January 43% lower than 12-month average, hit two-year low

Best Regards, ARBIND

09 Feb 2019

YOU ARE ALREADY ENOUGH, WHOLE, PERFECT, AWESOME AND UNIQUE. WISHING YOU WITH THIS PROPOSAL TODAY.

Macro Economic News 08 Feb 2019

 

The Reserve Bank of India's surprises with interest rates cut for the first time in 18 months. Europe’s economy faces a daunting combination of weaker demand for its exports from China and elsewhere, the prospect of a messy divorce with the U.K. and political problems closer to home, the European Union warned. German manufacturers reported a sharp drop in orders at the end of last year, a sign that businesses around the world may be holding back on new investments in the face of trade uncertainty. More than 58% of private-sector economic forecasters say a fresh government shutdown would take a toll on U.S. economic growth as well as business and consumer sentiment. A steady decline in demand for U.S. government bonds from foreign investors hasn’t been the disaster many analysts and investors feared it would be.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  France recalls Rome envoy over Italian ‘interference’

[I]  Norwegian hit by strike threats and losses

[I]  Trump pins hopes on strong economy ahead of 2020 poll

[I]  UK draws up secret plan to boost economy in no-deal Brexit

[I]  EU cuts Italy growth forecast to five-year low

[I]  Bank of England joins dovish peers with rates on hold

[I]  South Korea and US near deal on defence costs

[I]  Reserve Bank of India cuts key interest rate

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI unexpectedly cuts key rate

[I]  Oil prices squeezed by economy concerns, but OPEC output cuts provide support

[I]  Dollar firms, Aussie weakens as fresh growth worries prop up safe havens

[I]  Japan household spending rebounds slightly in December as real wages rise

[I]  RBI to set up working group for agricultural loan issues

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Australia Cuts GDP, CPI Forecasts on Consumption, Housing Risks

[I]  Fake Drugs Could Put Patients At Risk After No-Deal Brexit

[I]  British Workers Would Rather Have a Pay Rise Than a Lunch Break

[I]  OPEC Cuts? Rates Plunge? Oil Tanker Market to Shrug It All Off

[I]  India Assets End With Whimper as Surprise Rate Cut Fails to Amaze

[I]  Brexit Britain Is a Foreign Country to a Bemused World

[I]  Hedge Funds Post First Monthly Gains Since July

[I]  Brexit Is Nine Days Away for Exporters Sending Ships to Asia

[I]  Philippine Equity Index Nears Bull Market on Foreign Cash

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Most Economists Say Second Shutdown Would Hurt Growth

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Declined Last Week

[I]  Eurozone Economic Forecasts Slashed

[I]  Powell to Deliver Report to Senate Banking Committee This Month

[I]  Trump Tax Law Spurs Job Creation...for Tax Lawyers and Accountants

[I]  Fed’s Bullard Says No Need to Raise Rates Again

[I]  Economists Give Jerome Powell a Grade of B-Minus on His Performance

[I]  Domestic Investors Pick Up Foreign Creditors’ U.S. Debt

[I]  Trade Uncertainty Sends a Chill Through German Manufacturing

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Shaktikanta opens account with a surprise rate cut

[I]  Cotton output pegged at eight-year low

[I]  No big deal in Jan, PE/VC investments down by half year-on-year: EY study

[I]  CBDT Chairman: Solution in the works for angel tax issues

[I]  Cheer for auto-makers as registrations of vehicles rise in Jan

[I]  More rate cuts forecast with RBI focus seen on growth

[I]  For India Inc, traditional risks are clear and present perils

[I]  RBI relaxes norms to raise funds through ECB route

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Here's what experts think of RBI's focus shifting to growth

[I]  RBI takes sharp U-turn, lowers repo rate by 25 bps in first cut since Aug 2017

[I]  Companies ensure payback if execs flout norms

[I]  India's oilmeals export rises 5.5 per cent in January

[I]  India jumps 8 places to 36th on International IP Index

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Rate cut season back after 18 months as RBI moves to lift growth momentum

[I]  Industry promises Rs 39,000-cr investment at Bengal Global Business Summit

[I]  1.2 bn Indians, but just 150,000 declared income of over Rs 1 crore: CBDT

[I]  RBI increases limit on collateral-free agriculture loans to Rs 1.6 lakh

[I]  RBI monetary policy: Bad loan recognition norms, bulk deposits, and more

[I]  RBI monetary policy review: Risk weights eased for bank loans to NBFCs

[I]  Retail investors' wealth erodes as negative news-flow dents sentiment

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11048;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4700;  DJIA Mini: 25040;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7040;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20481;  EUR-USD: 1.1340; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.47;  Gold (Spot): 1310

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

08 Feb 2019

WITH A LOVELY ROSE OF A RAREST ESSENCE, WHISPER OF PASSION AND BREATHE OF LOVE, WISHING YOU A BLOSSOMED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 07 Feb 2019

 

A poll by Reuters showed that the Indian rupee is set to underperform against the dollar again this year, weighed down by uncertainty ahead of a national election in May, but is unlikely to retest life-time lows. Venezuela’s unfettered embrace of socialism now is ripping that nation apart, but the term has lost all ideological substance as it is currently bandied about in U.S. politics. The U.S. trade deficit unexpectedly narrowed in November to its smallest amount in five months, driven by a drop in imports, especially from China. German manufacturers reported a sharp drop in orders at the end of last year, a sign that businesses around the world may be holding back on new investments in the face of trade uncertainty.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  World’s largest carmakers warn of bleak year ahead

[I]  Business fury at UK failure on post-Brexit trade deals

[I]  EU prepares for no-deal Brexit — and ensuing blame game

[I]  ECB to test how long banks can last without fresh funds

[I]  Pay jump for contract staff signals shake-up in Japan’s job market

[I]  Climate change pushes global temperatures to record highs

 

REUTERS

[I]  Rupee the 'whipping boy', but to dodge record low

[I]  U.S. and China to resume trade talks next week in Beijing

[I]  Oil dips on rising U.S. supply, but OPEC cuts lend support

[I]  Aussie under pressure after RBA's dovish shift, yen firmer

[I]  Government tightens rules on unregulated deposit schemes

[I]  U.S. trade deficit narrows in November as imports decline

[I]  Brexit, global slowdown to weigh on Bank of England

[I]  U.S. Commerce Dept releases new dates for quarter four GDP, other reports

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Dollar Is ‘Best of a Bad Bunch’ in Surprise Turn for Wall Street

[I]  Europe's Diesel Drivers Beware: Heftier Tax Is Coming Your Way

[I]  Nifty Rally Leaves India Stock Investors Low in Two-Faced Market

[I]  U.S. Erupts in Fury as Germany Deports Terrorist to Turkey

[I]  Former Fed Chief Yellen Says Rates Next Move Could Be Up or Down

[I]  Brazil Keeps Key Rate Unchanged on Tame Prices and Weak Demand

[I]  Iran Oil Industry Faces Bleak Outlook 40 Years After Revolution

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Venezuela Disaster Exposes the Fake Socialism Debated in U.S.

[I]  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrowed in November

[I]  U.S. Factory Worker Productivity Rises; Shutdown Limits Picture

[I]  Domestic Investors Pick Up Foreign Creditors’ U.S. Debt

[I]  Powell Lauds Fed’s ‘Precious’ Independence From Politics

[I]  Fed Chairman Powell to Testify Before House Committee on Feb. 27

[I]  Trade Uncertainty Sends a Chill Through German Manufacturing

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Ayushman push comes at the cost of other health schemes

[I]  Draft logistics policy proposes e-marketplace and a fund for start-ups

[I]  Weak exports take a toll on volumes

[I]  China’s disdain for religious freedoms

[I]  Reinsurance firms approach IRDAI for separate set of accounting norms

[I]  In child poverty, India next only to sub-Saharan Africa: Report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rupee the 'whipping boy', but may dodge record low

[I]  Fiscal Deficit target of 3% is feasible as we are growing at a speed never seen before: FM Piyush Goyal

[I]  Government allows export of bio-fuels from special economic zones, EoUs

[I]  No cut in subsidies, expect more tax steps in full budget: Piyush Goyal

[I]  Cabinet approves amendments to Banning of Unregulated Deposit Schemes Bill

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt explores pre-packaged bankruptcy plan to fast track insolvency process

[I]  New RBI norms on bank subsidiaries to overhaul equity holding structures

[I]  America the country with the most unicorns, India a distant fourth

[I]  Despite over 200 million users, WhatsApp does not rule out exiting India

[I]  Countering India's e-commerce cacophony

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11111;  USDINR DGCX: 71.8575;  DJIA Mini: 25283;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7098;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20737;  EUR-USD: 1.1360; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.90;  Gold (Spot): 1304

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

07 Feb 2019