HAPPINESS IS THE WAY, THE WAY TO CONTENTMENT; THIS WEEKEND. WISHING A JOYOUS WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 01 Feb 2020

 

Government forecast a pick up in economic growth to 6.0-6.5% in the next fiscal beginning April 1, in its annual economic statement presented on Friday, but warned of a widening fiscal deficit. Consumer spending and wage gains eased at the end of last year, signs the U.S. economy is returning to a more moderate pace of growth. The eurozone’s economy slowed sharply in 2019 as factories faltered amid weak overseas demand and its key automobile industry struggled to get to grips with a cooling market and the costs of developing a new generation of electric cars. OECD says that talks over global digital tax are back on track. Britain bows out of EU as Bank of England downgrades outlook while Colombia holds key rate as IMF sees growth outpacing peers. Economic survey of India highlights Government intention of aggressive disinvestment of CPSEs while expects growth to rebound to 6-6.5% in next fiscal, however, mentions funding $1.4-trillion NIP as a challenge.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Coronavirus cases in China exceed Sars as public anger rises 

[I]  US warns citizens not to travel to China after WHO declares global emergency 

[I]  Talks over global digital tax are back on track, says OECD

[I]  Tariffs dispute between US and France is ‘pushing countries to compromise’

[I]  Eurozone grows just 0.1 per cent as France and Italy shrink

[I]  Dilemma over stimulus for ECB after bloc falls below expectations at end of 2019

[I]  Britain bows out of EU as Bank of England downgrades outlook

 

REUTERS

[I]  India forecasts economic growth of 6-6.5% in 2020/21

[I]  U.S. ramps up anti-coronavirus measures at border as impact spreads

[I]  India's budget likely to increase spending to spur growth

[I]  Brexit at last: Britain leaves the EU as champagne corks fly

[I]  Asia gold demand slumps as coronavirus grips top consumer

[I]  Euro zone growth below expectations, inflation slows

[I]  U.S.-UK trade deal needs labour, climate protections, enforcement - U.S. lawmaker

[I]  Mexico aims to boost business with Brazil's 'very closed' economy

[I]  Venezuela to impose tax up to 25% on purchases in foreign currency

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Charting the Economy: Global Growth Was Sputtering Before Virus

[I]  Record Losing Streaks, 99% Plunges Are Part of the Virus Market Fallout

[I]  Earnings Became an Afterthought in Stock Market Ruled by Fear

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Titans Portend Gloom for Global Economy

[I]  ‘Black Swan’ Virus Outbreak Fears Send Oil Short-Selling Soaring

[I]  The Velocity of Risk Goes Viral in Financial Markets

[I]  Colombia Holds Key Rate as IMF Sees Growth Outpacing Peers

[I]  Sentiment Among U.S. Consumers Rises to an Eight-Month High

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending, Wage Gains Eased in Late 2019

[I]  Fed’s 2020 Rate Outlook Clouded by Framework Review

[I]  U.S. Removes Cosco Shipping Units From Blacklist

[I]  Tech Sector Fears Supply Delays as Effects of Virus Ripple Through China

[I]  Eurozone Growth Hits 6-Year Low as Key Automobile Industry Struggles

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Survey trusts free markets to create wealth

[I]  Drug Price Control Order led medicines to become costlier: Economic Survey

[I]  Raising funds for infrastructure will be "challenge": Economic Survey

[I]  Economic Survey sets the tone for Budget 2020

[I]  Economic survey: Government eyes aggressive disinvestment of CPSEs

[I]  Economic Survey 2020: Growth to rebound to 6-6.5% in next fiscal

[I]  Funding $1.4-trillion NIP is a challenge: Economic Survey

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Eco Survey finds what ails banks, suggests cure

[I]  The key that may unlock fiscal room for FM

[I]  Forex reserve hits fresh lifetime high of $466.69 billion

[I]  Thailand's sugar production to fall by 4 million tonnes

[I]  Push for micro-irrigation says Economic Survey

[I]  Economic Survey's GDP growth forecast for FY20 wide off projection

[I]  Blue economy comprises 4.1% of GDP, says Secretary of Earth Sciences

[I]  Highways sector needs Rs 19.63 lakh crore investment by 2024-25: Economic Survey

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  President Kovind makes pitch for swadeshi to build 'a better tomorrow'

[I]  Economic Survey: 'Counter-cyclical fiscal policy' to boost demand justified

[I]  Economic Survey links infrastructure with social reforms to boost growth

[I]  How long will it take to create trust that the Economic Survey argues for

[I]  Economic Survey makes a case for economic freedom; less govt interventions

[I]  Common man bears the cost of wilful default as promoters destroy wealth

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
01 Feb 2020

LET THE DAY BE A DAY FULL OF CELEBRATION AS THE FIRST MONTH ENDS ON FRIDAY TOO. WISHING A MEMORABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 31 Jan 2020

 

Britain bows out of EU with optimism and regret while Ireland warns no special favours for UK in EU trade talks. The US economy grew at a rate of 2.3% last year, slowest annual pace since 2016, settling into a steady pace of roughly 2% that has prevailed during the decade-old economic expansion. U.S. GDP growth masks biggest decline in imports since 2009. Federal Reserve officials, after holding rates steady on Wednesday, indicated in a post-meeting statement and press conference that they were focused on “global developments” in deciding what to do next about interest rates.  U.S. life expectancy increased in 2018 for the first time in four years as deaths from drug overdoses dropped. The Bank of Canada might need to look beyond its usual two-year horizon when considering the impact of monetary policy on consumer debt and housing markets. Mexican economy stagnates in fourth quarter whereas Eurozone jobless rate slides to 12-year low as sentiment improves. China's factory activity stalls as virus risks grow while Japan's fourth-quarter factory output falls at fastest pace on record with steady jobless rate in December at 2.2% and rising CPI.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Britain bows out of EU with optimism and regret

[I]  Coronavirus poses challenge for China’s centralised system

[I]  Diplomats warn over heady vision of future UK-EU relationship

[I]  Ireland warns no special favours for UK in EU trade talks 

[I]  Closure of Russia-China border sparks trade fears

[I]  UK battles to define defence and security role post-Brexit

[I]  US economy grows at slowest annual pace since 2016

[I]  Eurozone jobless rate slides to 12-year low as sentiment improves

[I]  Mexican economy stagnates in fourth quarter

 

REUTERS

[I]  State of emergency declared as bushfire threatens Australian capital

[I]  U.S. tells citizens not to travel to China as virus toll tops 200

[I]  China's factory activity stalls as virus risks grow

[I]  Japan's fourth-quarter factory output falls at fastest pace on record

[I]  Indian smartphone makers fear supply disruptions due to China virus

[I]  Japan's fourth-quarter factory output falls at fastest pace on record 

[I]  Japan jobless rate steady in December at 2.2% 

[I]  Tokyo Jan. core CPI rises 0.7 percent year-on-year

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China’s Factories Were Struggling Even Before the Virus Worsened

[I]  India Braces for Deficit Blowout, Higher Borrowing: Budget Guide

[I]  Argentina Cuts Key Interest Rate for Fifth Time Under Fernandez

[I]  Investors Flee Junk-Bond Funds, Pour Record Cash Into High-Grade

[I]  U.S. GDP Growth Masks Biggest Decline in Imports Since 2009

[I]  Home Loan Rate at Lowest Since September Pressures Mortgages

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Heads Into 2020 With Steady Growth

[I]  The World Is the Dog, the Fed Is the Tail

[I]  U.S. Regulators Propose Removing Limit on Banks’ Ownership of Venture Capital Funds

[I]  Ross: Coronavirus Outbreak Could Help Bring Jobs Back to U.S.

[I]  Life Expectancy Rises in U.S.

[I]  Bank of Canada Might Need to Look Beyond Two-Year Horizon in Setting Rates

[I]  Newsletter Special Report: GDP Steady, Outlook Stable

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Textile exporters bleed as Govt asks them to repay sops availed

[I]  Coronavirus impact: Shutdown in China may hit Indian companies hard

[I]  Govt grants two-year extension to rate discount scheme for coastal vehicle carriers

[I]  Domestic airline industry may post net loss of ₹ 7,800 crore: ICRA

[I]  Govt may trim budget allocation for PM-Kisan

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Your bank deposit cover may go up by Rs 2 lakh

[I]  Global currency markets show signs of surviving virus scare

[I]  Not fiscal stimulus, alternate measures needed to boost economy: Rajiv Kumar

[I]  UK-EU divorce on Friday; India on target list for post-Brexit UK trade campaign

[I]  Government may cut down on foreign training of officials

[I]  Government restores 2% additional duty benefit to mobile phone export

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Budget 2020: Tax revenue estimate for FY20 likely to be slashed 4-6%

[I]  Global oil demand could nearly halve if coronavirus threat escalates

[I]  LTCG, dividend distribution tax roll-back on top of Budget wishlist

[I]  India's food ministry seeks over $28 billion for food subsidies: Report

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12082;  USDINR DGCX: 71.6450;  DJIA Mini: 28821;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7363;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23268;  EUR-USD: 1.1026; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.23;  Gold (Spot): 1572

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
31 Jan 2020

THIS SPRING IS ABOUT TO BLOOM EVERY BUD INTO A RADIANT BLOSSOM. WISHING A CHEERFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 30 Jan 2020

 

The Federal Reserve held interest rates steady at its first policy meeting of the year, with the head of the U.S. central bank pointing to continued moderate economic growth and a "strong" job market, and giving no sign of any imminent changes in borrowing costs. All 10 members of the Fed’s rate-setting committee voted to hold the fed-funds rate in a range between 1.5% and 1.75% and reaffirmed the Fed’s make-no-moves posture. Powell says Fed has a role in combating climate change risk while South Korea central bank official says that it is premature to decide on rate cuts to counter virus impact. The Bank of England appears close to cutting interest rates for the first time in more than three years. Chile holds rates as protests portend months of uncertainty while top Brazil investors call for end to interest rate cuts. Germany says economic recovery reaches turning point whereas British car production falls at quickest pace since recession.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Coronavirus crisis hits global businesses in China

[I]  EU draws up 5G plan to screen security risks

[I]  Germany says economic recovery reaches turning point

[I]  Nigeria makes anti-corruption moves amid criticism over progress

[I]  Federal Reserve stands firm on interest rates

[I]  Global miners failing to meet Paris climate goals

 

REUTERS

[I]  Fed keeps rates steady, to tailor Treasury bill purchases later this year

[I]  Fed has a role in combating climate change risk, Powell says

[I]  British car production falls at quickest pace since recession

[I]  South Korea central bank official: premature to decide on rate cuts to counter virus impact

[I]  Bank of England rate cut hangs in balance at Carney's last policy meeting

[I]  U.S. House Democrats call for $760 billion in infrastructure spending over five years

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Virus Crisis Risks Delaying Earnings Reports Across Hong Kong

[I]  Powell Paves Way for Possible Dovish Shift in Inflation Strategy

[I]  Fed Virus Alert, Shattered Indian Dreams, Germany Lifts: Eco Day

[I]  Argentina Tells Investors Debt Sustainability Plan Coming Soon

[I]  Chile Holds Rates as Protests Portend Months of Uncertainty

[I]  Fed Holds Main Rate as Powell Stresses Need to Hit 2% Inflation

[I]  Economy Shrinks in Larger Number of U.S. States, Fed Gauge Shows

[I]  Top Brazil Investors Call for End to Interest Rate Cuts

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Holds Benchmark Rate Steady

[I]  No, Banks Don’t Hold the Key to Climate Change

[I]  USMCA: The Deal’s Been Signed, but the Debate Continues

[I]  Durable-Goods Orders Rise, Masking Manufacturing Weakness

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India Venture Capital market ended on a high note in 2019

[I]  India to discuss $10-billion trade deal with the US ahead of Trump’s India visit

[I]  Soon, state-owned ports too will be free to set tariffs

[I]  India seeks WTO comments on proposal to bring more steel

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  US green card ruling may not hurt Indians

[I]  States asked to set up PSFs to combat price volatility

[I]  3.4 lakh evade cap gains tax on equity, MF sales: Government

[I]  Gadkari urges industry to cash in on new expressway projects

[I]  Assam tops in budgetary practices, followed by Odisha, Andhra: Survey

[I]  Budget 2020: What FM Sitharaman can do to ease liquidity conditions

[I]  Government notifies rules for winding up of companies under Companies Act

[I]  Manufacturing companies may need up to 2,000 compliances under laws

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt unearths job incentive fraud; EPFO blocks accounts of 1 mn employees

[I]  Mumbai's realty market flatlining on stagnant prices, slow sales

[I]  Brexit: Indian exporters cautious but hopeful ahead of Wednesday vote

[I]  Ind-Ra expects states fiscal deficit to touch 3% of GDP in FY21

[I]  GST, VAT collection dips as 6 states' tax revenue till November FY20 falls

 

MARKETS (07:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12101;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4125;  DJIA Mini: 28681;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7403;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23219;  EUR-USD: 1.1013; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.05;  Gold (Spot): 1579

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
29 Jan 2020

GOD OF WISDOM BLESSES US ALL WITH THE ULTIMATE PURPOSE OF OUR EXISTENCE. WISHING AN INSIGHTFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 29 Jan 2020

 

IMF sees medium-term risks to global economy; more easing not the answer while investors seek clarity from Fed on balance sheet expansion. According to a Congressional Budget Office report U.S. national debt will rise to 98% of gdp by 2030 while sustained federal budget deficits and debt will hit the highest levels since World War II. U. S. business investment fell in December, according to a closely watched proxy measure - the latest sign that manufacturing remains on uneven footing. FED officials are likely to hold interest rates steady in coming months while the focus of their meeting this week shifts to fine-tuning their control of short-term rates. The eurozone’s main banking regulator encouraged lenders to consider mergers and acquisitions to boost profits, reinforcing an increasingly vocal message to bankers across the region whereas Six eurozone banks fall short of ECB capital requirements. Portugal is expected to curb tax breaks for wealthy foreigners; Australian headline inflation exceeds estimates as drought bites and Moody’s says it’s too early to assess South Africa’s progress. Indian government is expected to raise spending on infrastructure and cut some personal tax in its 2020/2021 budget, to spur consumer demand and investment, government sources and economists said. With rise in acreage and surge in yields, record production of Rabi wheat is expected. MCA notifies easier winding-up rules for small firms to ease shutting business.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US attacks UK’s decision on Huawei

[I]  Six eurozone banks fall short of ECB capital requirements

[I]  Portugal to curb tax breaks for wealthy foreigners

[I]  Abe nominates dovish economist to Bank of Japan

[I]  Spectre of stagflation looms over India and China

[I]  Investors seek clarity from Fed on balance sheet expansion

[I]  UK competition policy undermines British start-ups

 

REUTERS

[I]  UK seeks to end automatic rights for EU vessels to fish in British waters

[I]   Australia inflation edges up but still below target

[I]  Risk currencies steady as investors assess virus fallouts 

[I]  India's budget likely to raise spending to revive economic growth

[I]  White House did not ask for a suspension of U.S.-China flights - official

[I]  BOJ debated scope for policy review in January - summary

[I]  Decline in UK shop prices eases in January - BRC

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Australian Headline Inflation Exceeds Estimates as Drought Bites

[I]  Hong Kong Reopens to Crisis as Virus Tests Market Resilience

[I]  Market Linchpin Rejects Argument It’s to Blame for Repo Chaos

[I]  ECB’s Hernandez de Cos Says WTO Needs Makeover to Stay Relevant

[I]  No End to Brexit Blight for Economy as Britain Leaves the EU

[I]  Moody’s Says It’s Too Early to Assess South Africa’s Progress

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. National Debt Will Rise to 98% of GDP by 2030, CBO Projects

[I]  Durable-Goods Orders Rise, Masking Manufacturing Weakness

[I]  Fed Faces Decisions on Its Balance Sheet

[I]  European Banking Regulator Encourages Mergers to Boost Profits

[I]  Outbreak Tests Faith in Global Economy

[I]  Banks Face Eased Volcker Restrictions on Venture-Capital Funds

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India’s crude steel output rises 1.8 per cent to 111.2 million tonnes in 2019: Report

[I]  Just one out of 4 assessees has submitted GST audit conciliation report so far for FY18

[I]  What is the aam aadmi hoping for in this Budget?

[I]  Rise in acreage, surge in yields to push rabi wheat production to new highs

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  NBFCs' wishlist to emerge from the shadows

[I]  Record grain output in 2020; horticulture to grow too

[I]  NBFCs seek setting up of permanent refinance window in Union Budget

[I]  India's budget likely to raise spending to revive economic growth

[I]  Cracking the whip: E-comm policy to deal with online counterfeits

[I]  Power companies feel divestment may increase cost of borrowings

[I]  The top officials working behind the scenes on India’s budget

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Bankers get shield from fraud heat; boards of PSBs to be held accountable

[I]  From tax rate cuts to job creation, India Inc sees a populist Budget

[I]  MCA notifies winding-up rules: Shutting business now easier for small firms

[I]  IMF sees medium-term risks to global economy; more easing not the answer

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12101;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4125;  DJIA Mini: 28733;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7428;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23344;  EUR-USD: 1.1016; Crude Oil (WTI): 53.96;  Gold (Spot): 1565

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
29 Jan 2020