ENJOY THE FEST OF TWO MOST BEAUTIFUL MUSIC BY GOD – YOUR OWN HEARTBEATS AND RAINDROPS. WISHING A CELEBRATORY WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 06 Jun 2020

The U.S. economy unexpectedly added jobs in May after suffering record losses in the prior month, offering the clearest signal yet that the downturn triggered by the COVID-19 pandemic was probably over, though the road to recovery could be long. The jobs report for May showed broad improvement, but with variations among industries and by such categories as gender, education and race. The European Central Bank scaled up its bond-buying program in a bold move that puts the ECB’s stimulus effort in line with that of the Federal Reserve, while U.S. unemployment and trade data pointed to a rocky recovery from the pandemic shutdowns that crippled the global economy.

Australia adds national security test to foreign investment rules while Trump seeks ways to curb US-listed Chinese companies and EU could face internal resistance to Chinese takeover rules. Argentina's pandemic-hit economy seen shrinking 9.5% this year whereas Philippines’ factory output falls by most since 2001.

CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian sees FY21 fiscal deficit at over 5% while Centre warns banks on delays in disbursing Rs 3 trn loans to MSMEs although Govt applies the brake on schemes outside the Rs 20 trillion package.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump targets EU and China over US lobster tariffs

[I]  Unemployment rate in US falls unexpectedly to 13.3%

[I]  Australia adds national security test to foreign investment rules

[I]  Trump seeks ways to curb US-listed Chinese companies

[I]  EU could face internal resistance to Chinese takeover rules 

REUTERS

[I]  OPEC, Russia meet to extend record oil cuts, push for compliance

[I]  Argentina's pandemic-hit economy seen shrinking 9.5% this year: central bank poll

[I]  Brazil government's 2020 deficit forecast already looking 'optimistic': Treasury Secretary

[I]  U.S. labour market unexpectedly improves; recovery years away

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Economists Have Biggest Miss Ever in U.S. Jobs-Report Shocker

[I]  Charting the Global Economy: U.S. Job Market Springs Back

[I]  Philippines’ Factory Output Falls by Most Since 2001 on Lockdown

[I]  OPEC+ Meets to Extend Cuts That Trump Says Saved Oil Industry

[I]  Long-Short Momentum Down 9% and Other Tales of a Shocked Market

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Unemployment Rate Fell to 13.3% in May

[I]  Where Employment Improved—and Where It Didn’t

[I]  The Soured Romance Between China and Corporate America

[I]  U.S. Exports, Imports Fell Sharply Amid Coronavirus Disruptions

[I]  Unemployment-Claims Report Signals Pace of Coronavirus Job Losses

[I]  ECB Ramps Up Stimulus Program Beyond $1.5 Trillion

[I]  Evidence Grows of Lockdowns’ Toll on Employment

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST Council to meet on June 12

[I]  Finance Ministry expects most MSMEs to avail credit under GECL in June

[I]  Nearly 85 per cent of customers willing to buy new commercial vehicle products post lockdown: Survey

[I]  Monsoon picking up pace in Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal

[I]  FMCG companies pin hopes on rural demand; to ramp up direct distribution

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Inside the meeting to save India's economy

[I]  Covid Live: G20 pledges over 21 bln dollars

[I]  Forex reserves surge to all-time high of $493.48 billion

[I]  Euro, risk currencies lifted by ECB stimulus

[I]  Reserve Bank sets up a Rs.500 crore digital payments infra fund

[I]  Finance Ministry puts a cap on expenses, hold on approval of new schemes

[I]  Google Tax: Government re-thinking equalisation levy

[I]  Finance Ministry puts a leash on expenses in times of Covid

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India Inc takes cautious approach to Covid disclosures mandated by Sebi

[I]  CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian sees FY21 fiscal deficit at over 5%

[I]  Centre warns banks on delays in disbursing Rs 3 trn loans to MSMEs

[I]  Govt applies the brake on schemes outside the Rs 20 trillion package

[I]  Ration woes, expenses lay bare the migrant distress since lockdown

Best Regards, ARBIND

06 Jun 2020

NATURE HAS PAINTED THE BEST ENVIRONMENT FOR US. WISHING A SOOTHING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 05 Jun 2020

U.S. exports and imports both posted their largest monthly decreases on record amid coronavirus-related shutdowns around the world. The number of workers applying for and receiving unemployment benefits was historically high but eased at the end of May, indicating the U.S. labor market has weathered the worst of the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic. The European Central Bank scaled up its bond-buying program in a bold move that puts the ECB’s stimulus effort in line with that of the Federal Reserve, while U.S. unemployment and trade data pointed to a rocky recovery from the pandemic shutdowns that crippled the global economy. U.K. consumer outlook becomes bleaker even as lockdown eases and Japan's household spending falls at record pace as virus stalls economy while Singapore bank deposits jump as Hong Kong, virus sow uncertainty although PBOC says it supports Hong Kong’s role as a financial center.

India's mass exodus from cities triggers village property disputes while the Govt data shows around 26 lakh migrant labourers are stranded. RBI survey finds that consumer confidence collapses and economy may contract by 1.5 per cent in FY21 expecting Bank NPAs may worsening to 11.6 pc by end of this fiscal. India's policy uncertainty at 81-month high as index rises 4 months on trot and Centre says to SC that Employers claiming incapacity in paying wages must place balance sheets in court.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ECB boosts bond-buying stimulus package by €600bn

[I]  German stimulus aims to kick-start recovery ‘with a ka-boom’

[I]  US jobless claims ease as economy struggles to reopen

[I]  Pandemic hits black voters’ incomes hardest, FT poll shows

[I]  CO2 levels in atmosphere hit new highs despite lockdowns

[I]  Donors pledge $8.8bn for global vaccination programmes

REUTERS

[I]  Japan's household spending falls at record pace as virus stalls economy

[I]  Euro holds gains, dollar soft after ECB expands stimulus

[I]  Singapore bank deposits jump as Hong Kong, virus sow uncertainty

[I]  India's mass exodus from cities triggers village property disputes

[I]  OPEC+ to meet on Saturday to discuss extending oil output cuts

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  OPEC+ Set to Extend Cuts After Breakthrough With Iraq

[I]  PBOC Says It Supports Hong Kong’s Role as a Financial Center

[I]  Global Recovery Hope Erases Pandemic Losses in Indonesian Assets

[I]  U.K. Consumer Outlook Becomes Bleaker Even as Lockdown Eases

[I]  Euro Flashes Warning Signs Amid Longest Rally in Almost a Decade

[I]  U.K. Urged to Scrap BOE Inflation Target in Favor of Growth

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Exports, Imports Fell Sharply Amid Coronavirus Disruptions

[I]  Unemployment-Claims Report Signals Pace of Coronavirus Job Losses

[I]  ECB Ramps Up Stimulus Program Beyond $1.5 Trillion

[I]  Americans Are Saving More, but How Long Can It Last?

[I]  Coronavirus Pandemic Drives Unemployment Up Across U.S. Metro Areas

[I]  A Painful Economic Reversal of Fortune for African-Americans

[I]  Newsletter: The Slow Process of Healing the Economy

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  To revive economy, India has to focus on sectors with ‘pull effect’: Suresh Prabhu

[I]  IMD forecasts fresh low-pressure area in Bay by Monday

[I]  Delhi petrol pump dealers seek lowering of Value Added Tax

[I]  Monsoon eyes next major break over N-E India

[I]  Power demand witnesses decline for second consecutive month

[I]  Cargo volumes at state-owned ports decline 22% in April-May

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  You can go out again. But, conditions apply

[I]  26 lakh migrant labourers stranded: Govt data

[I]  Interest subvention on crop loans extended till August 31

[I]  Double whammy for service companies: Required to pay GST on defaults, bad debts

[I]  Consumer confidence collapses, economy may contract by 1.5 per cent in FY21: RBI surveys

[I]  Bank NPAs may worsen to 11.6 pc by end of this fiscal due to coronavirus pandemic: Report

[I]  View: Time for an Urban Employment Guarantee Programme

[I]  Employers claiming incapacity in paying wages must place balance sheets in court: Centre to SC

[I]  Economists demand a plan to turn crisis of reverse migration into an opportunity

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India's edible oil import falls 40% in May, lowest since 2011: SEA

[I]  Modi-Morrison online summit: India, Australia ink landmark defence pact

[I]  Bank of Mauritius approaches RBI to clear the air on NBFC impasse

[I]  Credit funds could see unlisted exposure rise over high redemptions

[I]  India's policy uncertainty at 81-month high as index rises 4 months on trot

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10066;  USDINR DGCX: 75.5900;  DJIA Mini: 26370;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6357;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22617;  EUR-USD: 1.1334; Crude Oil (WTI): 37.36;  Gold (Spot): 1708

Best Regards, ARBIND

05 Jun 2020

TRUST, THE HOPE WILL BE UPLIFTED. WISHING AN ELEVATED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 04 Jun 2020

The fallout from the pandemic and protests highlights the income and wealth gaps that leave black Americans vulnerable. The gap between economic strata is widening across the globe and fear of social issues from the vulnerable classes are being raised from the business and intellectuals. Cases reflect the vulnerabilities that workers and governments face in the midst of historically high levels of jobless related to the pandemic. Unemployment also rises in Europe as coronavirus ends labour market recovery while ECB prepares more aid for virus-stricken euro zone. Australian retailers suffer record sales slump, backs grim outlook for second-quarter GDP.

China’s bond traders brace for more pain as slump deepens while India's benchmark bond yield has fallen back to levels seen before the administration ramped up its annual borrowing target by more than half, as investors bet that the nation's central bank has more tricks up its sleeve. Corporate bond issues more than double in April- May whereas the services sector again faced extreme headwinds in May as the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) clocked 12.6 in May. Moody's sounds another alarm for India after downgrading India's sovereign ratings, that the quality of retail and SME loans will also deteriorate while India Inc in no rush to bring back techies to office.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Unemployment rises in Europe as coronavirus ends labour market recovery

[I]  Covid-19 ends Australia’s run of record growth

[I]  US threatens to bar Chinese airlines

[I]  The outsourcers hoping to gain from the crisis

[I]  A divided America cannot compete in a superpower duel

[I]  Britain is out of step with its partners on quarantine

REUTERS

[I]  Australian retailers suffer record sales slump, backs grim outlook for second-quarter GDP

[I]  Euro holds firm as markets bet on ECB stimulus boost

[I]  ECB prepares more aid for virus-stricken euro zone

[I]  Sterling to take a pasting if UK seeks no extension for EU trade talks - Reuters poll

[I]  U.S. Senate passes bill lengthening coronavirus small-business loan terms

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Merkel Seals $146 Billion Deal to Pull Germany Out of Crisis

[I]  Even Good ADP Report Isn’t Changing Bleak U.S. Payroll Forecasts

[I]  In RBI We Trust Is Bond Mantra as India Yields Remain Resilient

[I]  Singapore’s Challenge, Japan’s Spree, Merkel’s Billions: Eco Day

[I]  Australia to Bolster Housing Sector With A$688 Million Stimulus

[I]  ECB Told to Be Bold With More Cash for Recovery: Decision Guide

[I]  China’s Bond Traders Brace for More Pain as Slump Deepens

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Pandemic Drives Unemployment Up Across U.S. Metro Areas

[I]  A Painful Economic Reversal of Fortune for African-Americans

[I]  Fed Expands Municipal-Lending Facility to More Localities

[I]  Unemployment Fraud Spreads Across U.S.

[I]  Coronavirus Stimulus Funds Are Largely Depleted

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Modi, Morrison to discuss trade, health, education, defence in virtual summit

[I]  Services PMI at 12.6 in May as activities contract sharply due to pandemic

[I]  Nod for Ordinance to amend Insolvency Code

[I]  Telangana to set up three3 panels for crop regulation

[I]  More players may enter contract farming

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Moody's sounds another alarm for India

[I]  India Inc in no rush to bring back techies to office

[I]  Corporate bond issues more than double in April- May

[I]  US to probe ‘Google tax’ among levies

[I]  The road ahead turns darker for India, Asia's virus hotspot

[I]  Service activity contracts again in May, PMI at 12.6

[I]  Government eyes $17 billion investment proposals to boost local manufacturing

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Interest waiver will impact financial viability of banks: RBI to SC

[I]  Suspension of IBC can affect resolution efforts and shift focus to recovery

[I]  India IT spending to dip 8% in 2020 amid Covid-19 pandemic, says Gartner

[I]  Windfall for sugar mills as Centre allows export of alcohol-based sanitiser

[I]  India must shed its protectionist attitude: Ex-CEA Arvind Subramanian

[I]  After mobile phone devices, phased manufacturing push for AC makers

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10052;  USDINR DGCX: 75.6700;  DJIA Mini: 26184;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6357;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22631;  EUR-USD: 1.1218; Crude Oil (WTI): 36.42;  Gold (Spot): 1703

Best Regards, ARBIND

04 Jun 2020

CALMING IS THE COMFORTING TRUST. WISHING A UPLIFTING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 03 Jun 2020

The Trump administration is taking the initial step to prepare tariffs against a range of trading partners unless they back off proposals to impose taxes that would fall heavily on the major American internet companies. The U.S. economy could take the better part of a decade to fully recover from the coronavirus pandemic and related shutdowns, a U.S. budget agency said, as a series of surveys pointed to continuing weakness in global manufacturing. President Trump’s economic team wants to encourage the public to return to work and resume normal life, including going to restaurants and taking vacations, in its proposals for the next coronavirus relief package. Asian stocks jump to 3-month high as recovery hopes outweigh looming risks while Japan's service sector activity shrinks for fourth month in May and Australia's economy is in recession after first-quarter GDP contracts ending three-decade expansion. India launched a $6.65 billion plan to boost electronics manufacturing, saying it would start by offering five global smartphone makers incentives to establish or expand domestic production.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU seeks to curb state-backed foreign rivals

[I]  Thailand tempts travellers with luxurious lockdown

[I]  US retailers step up security and close stores after looting

[I]  ECB set to expand bond-buying to soak up debt

[I]  Libya’s warring sides agree to restart ceasefire talks, says UN

[I]  Central Europe fears effects of German slowdown

[I]  IMF officials say Argentina can improve debt restructuring offer

REUTERS

[I]  Brent oil rises to $40 amid hopes for output cuts, recovery

[I]  G7 finance leaders to hold virus telecon on Weds, Japan's Jiji says

[I]  Australia's economy is in recession, Treasurer says after first-quarter GDP contracts

[I]  Asian stocks jump to 3-month high as recovery hopes outweigh looming risks

[I]  India launches $6.7 billion plan to boost electronics manufacturing

[I]  EU balks at adding Russia back into G7

[I]  Japan's service sector activity shrinks for fourth month in May - PMI

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  OPEC+ Edges Closer to Compromise to Extend Deepest Ever Cuts

[I]  Oil’s Comeback Encourages U.S. Shale and Complicates OPEC+ Task

[I]  Australia’s Economy Contracts, Ending Three-Decade Expansion

[I]  Brent Oil Rises Past $40 as OPEC+ Cut Extension Looks Likely

[I]  Bond Traders in Japan Can’t Stop Fretting Over Long-End Supply

[I]  China Takes First Steps Toward $3 Trillion REIT Market

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Faces Long Recovery From Coronavirus Effects, Experts Say

[I]  White House Weighs Options for Next Stimulus Bill

[I]  U.S. Weighs Tariffs Against Nations Seeking to Tax Internet Firms

[I]  Census Bureau Says 60.5% of Households Responded to 2020 Count

[I]  Retailers and Restaurants Grapple With Damage, Just as Many Were Starting to Reopen

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  At 268 lakh tonnes, sugar production this year is higher than projected: ISMA

[I]  Will definitely get our growth back: Modi to India Inc

[I]  Tea exports likely to register a fall

[I]  Fruit and vegetable output set to cross record 320 mt

[I]  Lockdown exit: 2.1 crore jobs added in May

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Cos with staff stuck in India may get tax relief

[I]  India set to re-enter UN Security Council

[I]  Want to make India a major electronic manufacturing hub: Ravi Shankar Prasad

[I]  Oil hits three-month high over hopes for output cuts

[I]  Another source of much-needed cash dries up for Indian firms

[I]  Tax relief likely on creation of ‘permanent establishment’

[I]  Five Indian states are leading economy to recovery from lockdown

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Domestic capital goods companies seek price preference policy from Centre

[I]  External affairs, commerce ministries differ on invitation by RCEP nations

[I]  Govt launches Electronics Mfg Scheme 2.0, aims to get 5 top global players

[I]  SBI creates separate business vertical to drive MSME, agri finance

[I]  RBI seeks clarity from govt on Taiwan's foreign direct investment status

[I]  India Inc warns of social issues if growth does not revive soon

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10073;  USDINR DGCX: 75.2775;  DJIA Mini: 25815;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6272;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22627;  EUR-USD: 1.1205; Crude Oil (WTI): 37.61;  Gold (Spot): 1725

Best Regards, ARBIND

03 Jun 2020