CELEBRATE THE SPACE ALONG WITH YOUR LOVED ONES. CHERISHING WEEKEND IS WAITING AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 18 May 2019

 

Indian NBFCs see no sign of liquidity crisis easing, await RBI's rescue act. China struck a more aggressive tone in its trade war with the United States, suggesting a resumption of talks between the world's two largest economies would be meaningless unless Washington changed course. With U.S.-China trade talks at an impasse, President Trump moved to tackle festering trade disputes with U.S. allies and North American neighbours. The administration agreed to end metals tariffs on Canada and Mexico, and postponed a decision on auto tariffs.  Stalled trade talks between Beijing and Washington are exacerbating a slump in the U.S. Farm Belt, and many farmers don’t believe an aid package being assembled by the Trump administration will be enough. U.S. household sentiment rose starkly at the beginning of May to its highest level in a decade and a half, driven by a brighter economic outlook.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump eases tariffs for allies as he focuses on China

[I]  US cuts Turkish steel tariffs by half to 25%

[I]  Labor party buoyed by narrow lead on eve of Australia poll

[I]  UK life science companies show signs of health

[I]  Voters want to move on but Brexit Britain is stuck

[I]  Employee ownership can make societies richer

[I]  Melbourne’s first-time homebuyers get a leg-up

[I]  Banking fraud complaints hit ‘all-time high’

[I]  Contactless spending continues to soar

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. lifts tariffs on Canadian, Mexican metals in boost for trade pact

[I]  Mexico says deal reached with U.S. on steel, aluminum does not impose quotas

[I]  China's tough rhetoric leaves trade talks with U.S. in limbo

[I]  IMF's Lagarde says U.S.-China trade war could be risk for world economic outlook

[I]  India flips to discount as gold prices gain; demand dips in top hubs

[I]  Trade talks between U.S. and China have stalled - CNBC

[I]  Saudi to supply an extra 2 million barrels a month to Indian Oil Corp from July

[I]  U.S. Treasury's Mnuchin defies House subpoena for Trump's tax returns

[I]  As Fed seeks policy advice, officials visit a struggling New Jersey city

[I]  Tariffs could lead to markdowns in retail shares

[I]  Fed's Harker in no rush on rates, worried about low inflation expectations

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Trade War Has Sunk Emerging Markets. There's More to Come.

[I]  Trump Says Freeing Fannie-Freddie From U.S. Control Is ‘Urgent’

[I]  From Recession to Record Rallies: Wall Street's Wild Trade Takes

[I]  Venezuela Sells $570 Million From Gold Reserve Despite Sanctions

[I]  Trade Jitters Kill Global Crude's Longest Bull Run Since 2011

[I]  Ag Economy Is So Bad That Farmers Hang on to Old Deere Tractors

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Seeks to Resolve Other Trade Disputes Amid China Impasse

[I]  U.S. Farmers Brace for Aid Package Some Fear Will Fall Short

[I]  U.S. Reaches Deal With Canada, Mexico to End Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

[I]  White House Delays Decision on Auto Tariffs for 180 Days

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Hits Highest Level in 15 Years

[I]  Fed’s Harker Says He’s Not in a Rush to Raise Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  CBDT wants shell cos ‘revived’ to collect pending taxes

[I]  Indian textile exporters set to gain from US-China trade conflict

[I]  US-China trade war escalation can trigger another financial crisis

[I]  RBI to study panel views on digital payments

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Govt won't give out info on black money

[I]  Niti Aayog wants to rein in the data barons

[I]  Are foreign investors falling out of love with India?

[I]  US-China trade tensions may lead to dumping of Chinese goods in India: Ind-Ra

[I]  Uzbekistan eyes $1.7 billion FDI including from India

[I]  Land, labour reforms to push economic growth: N K Singh

[I]  Shrimp production in Odisha hit by cyclone Fani

[I]  RBI to bank on data analytics for timely fraud detection

[I]  India probes alleged dumping of digital printing plates from China, Japan, 3 other nations

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Skilled immigrants only: US to replace green cards with Build America visa

[I]  Realtors say ruling on delayed handover of flats not one-size-fits-all

[I]  Silicon Valley IT firm sues US govt for denying H-1B visa to Indian

[I]  NBFCs see no sign of liquidity crisis easing, await RBI's rescue act

[I]  India's apparel exports to UAE decline 33% on higher import duty

[I]  Iron ore powers above $100 as supply crisis roils global market

[I]  China signals lack of interest in resuming trade talks with US

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

18 May 2019

REAL REJOICING IS RELIGIOUSLY “BEING WITH” THE PERSONS AND CIRCUMSTANCES, AROUND. WISHING A RELISHING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 May 2019

 

RBI directs NBFCs to appoint ‘chief risk officers’. Germany's Angela Merkel reaffirmed that leaving politics after serving her term as chancellor, dismissing speculation her candidacy for a big European Union job. Theresa May wishes to set out a timetable for her departure in early June after the latest attempt to get her Brexit deal approved by parliament. Donald Trump proposed overhauling the U.S. immigration system to favour young, educated, English-speaking applicants. The latest tariff increases on Chinese imports will likely boost to U.S. inflation temporarily, reflecting the relatively small portion of American spending that goes to goods rather than services. The share of U.S. workers born outside the country rose again last year, hitting the highest level in decades, boosted by steady immigration and a drop in the native-born birthrate. Housing starts rose 5.7% in April from the prior month, driven by an uptick in single-family construction across much of the country. Consumer debt and housing worries in Canada eased out.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU fines five banks €1bn over foreign exchange cartel

[I]  May begins countdown to resignation

[I]  French unemployment falls as reforms continue

[I]  US sets course for its next Middle Eastern war of choice

[I]  The independence of central banks must be respected

 

REUTERS

[I]  Shadow banks must appoint risk officers: RBI

[I]  In nod to 2020, Trump pitches U.S. immigration overhaul 

[I]  Britain's May to agree departure after latest Brexit deal bid

[I]  Indian rice prices slide to seven-month low as demand stalls

[I]  Stung by U.S. sanction threats, EU seeks ways to boost the euro

[I]  With inflation elusive, two Fed policymakers lay out a welcome mat

[I]  IMF: Too early to assess Sri Lanka economic damage from Easter bombings

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Goldman Fund Says Bond Market Has Gone Too Far, Yields Will Rise

[I]  China Cuts U.S. Treasury Holdings to Lowest Level Since 2017

[I]  Iran Says Talks With Trump Possible If U.S. Returns to 2015 Deal

[I]  Lebanon's Latest Brush With Crisis Has Hezbollah Scolding Banks

[I]  Your Cup of Coffee's About to Get Cheaper

[I]  It's All Starting to Look Glum for the Australian Dollar

[I]  Bonds Calling the Shots for Stocks as Rate Cuts Outweigh Trade

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump’s Latest Tariffs Likely to Have Only Modest Impact on Inflation

[I]  Foreign-Born Workers Make Up Highest Percentage of U.S. Employment Since 1996

[I]  U.S. Targets Huawei as It Seeks to Revive China Trade Talks

[I]  Silicon Valley Will Feel Sting of Export Restrictions Against Huawei

[I]  Home Building in the U.S. Rose in April

[I]  Fed Officials Reveal More Doubts About Inflation Dynamics, but See Few Solutions

[I]  Canada Consumer Debt, Housing Worries Ease Modestly

[I]  China Says It Doesn’t Know About U.S. Plans for Beijing Trade Talks

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Apex bank directs NBFCs to appoint ‘chief risk officers’

[I]  Handicraft exporters to Iran breathe easy as govt drops documentation requirement for export sop

[I]  Making big accounting firms fall in line

[I]  Met kicks off monsoon watch, trains focus on Andamans

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  US-China trade war: Is there a silver lining for India?

[I]  Your GST shield may get a new lease of life

[I]  Ecomm biggies log out of deep discounts

[I]  RBI is giving less-cash India another chance

[I]  Trump to propose merit-based immigration system

[I]  More USD–INR swaps can prevent liquidity crisis from worsening

[I]  Niti Aayog bats for ending data monopoly

[I]  National business register: A record of all business enterprises in the country

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI asks NBFCs with over Rs 5,000 cr assets to appoint chief risk officer

[I]  Indian IT has a talent challenge as engineers flock to global tech centres

[I]  Choosing your company's name? MCA lists examples to avoid any duplication

[I]  Now, a dedicated portal to oversee renewable power sector in India

[I]  Taiwan looks to fast-track FTA talks with India, eyes higher tech exports

[I]  Mid, small-cap stocks bear brunt of market correction, decline 10% in April

[I]  Govt employees to enjoy greater say in how their NPS corpus is invested

 

MARKETS (08:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11290;  USDINR DGCX:70.2950;  DJIA Mini: 25867;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7329;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21391;  EUR-USD: 1.1176; Crude Oil (WTI): 63.32;  Gold (Spot): 1285

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

17 May 2019

“I AM WITH YOU” IS THE MOST SOUGHT WORDS BY YOUR LOVED ONE. WISHING A CARING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 May 2019

 

Met dept sees delay in southwest monsoon, Kerala to get rains on June 6. IT hiring in India hits an 8-year high. Indian trade deficit in April widens to $15.33 billion. Australia jobless rate jumps to eight-month highs, Australian dollar stumbles. Weak U.S. retail sales, industrial output highlight slowing economy. World economy rebound thrown into doubt by escalating trade war. Escalating tariffs between the U.S. and China have fueled a debate over who is actually paying—but the answer isn’t straightforward because the person paying the tariff doesn’t necessarily bear its burden. Spending at U.S. retailers declined in April, signaling hesitation among consumers. The U.S. birth rate fell to a 32-year low, deepening a fertility slump that is reshaping America’s future workforce. Alabama governor signs nation's most restrictive anti-abortion law. Germany’s economy rebounded in the first quarter after narrowly avoiding recession late last year, easing the immediate pressure on policy makers in Europe as the outlook continues to darken for global trade.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump to delay car tariffs decision by up to 6 months

[I]  US consumers start to pay price of trade war with China

[I]  German economy rebounds in first quarter

[I]  Tension in Italy coalition fuels talk of split

[I]  Khan swallows pride to clinch toughest IMF bailout yet

[I]  German authorities raid 14 banks in offshore tax fraud probe

[I]  Foreign companies in China face cyber security crackdown

[I]  The US needs antitrust law for the 21st century

[I]  Electioneering has pushed the Indian economy aside

 

REUTERS

[I]  China April home price growth solid, big cities lead in sign of broadening strength

[I]  Australia jobless rate jumps to eight-month highs, Australian dollar stumbles

[I]  Oil extends gains into third session amid Middle East tensions

[I]  April trade deficit widens to $15.33 billion

[I]  Monsoon to hit India on June 6: IMD

[I]  Fed's Barkin watching effect of U.S.-China trade dispute on business confidence

[I]  Weak U.S. retail sales, industrial output highlight slowing economy

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Investors Are Dumping These Southeast Asia Funds

[I]  Global ‘Wall of Worry’ Feeds Rush for Treasuries as Risks Mount

[I]  Secret Bond Deals Making China's Debt Market More Confusing

[I]  Quants Think Like Amateurs in World’s Wildest Stock Market

[I]  World Economy Rebound Thrown Into Doubt by Escalating Trade War

[I]  China Housing a Bright Spot in Soggy Economy as Prices Gain

[I]  Australia Unemployment Rises, Boosting Odds of Interest-Rate Cut

[I]  Fear of Election ‘Bolt From the Blue’ Has India Markets Worried

[I]  Funding Crisis to Worsen Unless India Pumps In Cash, Kotak Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Who Pays the Trump Tariffs? We Do, These Americans Say

[I]  Retail Sales Declined in April

[I]  Trump Administration Delays Decision on Car Tariffs

[I]  U.S. Births Fall to Lowest Level Since 1980s

[I]  U.S. Industrial Production Dropped in April

[I]  Germany’s Economy Rebounds Despite Darkening Trade Outlook

[I]  U.S. Economy Lost Some Steam at Start of Second Quarter

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  June 6 is D-Day for the monsoon, says IMD

[I]  Export growth almost flat in April; imports rise 4.5%

[I]  Lawmakers look set to vote down May’s Brexit plans

[I]  Container freight stations, warehouses seek exclusion from higher fire-risk category

[I]  Home buyers to pay higher GST on balance payment even if occupancy certificate is issued before April 1

[I]  Government to disinvest 15% in RITES to raise nearly Rs. 700 crore

[I]  Insurers find it hard to offload downgraded paper of NBFCs

[I]  Insurers slow to respond to emerging risks, says report

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  IT hiring in India hits an 8-year high

[I]  India backs French initiative to combat terror

[I]  Maha drought worse than 1972: Sharad Pawar

[I]  GST anti-profiteering body may get fresh lease of life

[I]  RBI releases payments systems roadmap for a ‘cash-lite’ India

[I]  National business register: A record of all business enterprises in the country

[I]  Iran sanctions: Indo-Afghan Banking via Chabahar Port hit

[I]  India's services exports rise 6.6% to $17.94 bn in March

[I]  US-China trade war: Chinese investment in India may be imminent, says Anand Mahindra

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  GDP likely to grow at around 7% in FY20: CEA Krishnamurthy Subramanian

[I]  Slowdown in automobile sales forces parts makers to tread with caution

[I]  VCs, PE firms bet big on packaged consumer goods, park $676 mn in 2018

[I]  Higher GST will apply to dues on finished real estate projects: CBIC

[I]  FinMin, RBI try to cobble together consensus on economic outlook

[I]  RBI's vision 2021 looks at a 'cash-lite' society, cyber security, and more

[I]  Met dept sees delay in southwest monsoon, Kerala to get rains on June 6

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11185;  USDINR DGCX:70.4175;  DJIA Mini: 25628;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7255;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21056;  EUR-USD: 1.1208; Crude Oil (WTI): 62.42;  Gold (Spot): 1296

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

16 May 2019