YOU ARE AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL OF SELF-CONSCIOUSNESS AND CONTRIBUTION. WISHING A PRETTY SATISFYING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 25 Apr 2020

We are heading to adjust to a world of more debt, less globalisation and greater digitalisation. While figures show early slowdown and suggest further decline, the gap between financial markets and global economy yawns wider. Central banks are under pressure to fairly disburse trillions of dollars to companies and local administrative units for better utilization of aid-funds. As government contemplates partial lifting of lockdown, big industrial units are ready with a new set of operating procedures but MSMEs see many bottlenecks in restarting the operations. Resiliency of the economy is put on test with diminishing efficiency and deteriorating demands. Business activity in the U.S., Europe and Japan collapsed in April as governments tightened restrictions on movement and social interaction aimed at limiting the spread of the coronavirus, according to surveys of purchasing managers. Business leaders are echoing for co-ordinated approach to safely reopening the economy amidst the risk of double-dip depression while possibility of economic devastation hitting women workers hardest is rising leading to gender and economic gap across societies. Rule of Capital and rule by law both seem to be continuously facing its limits as seen by their frequent changes. The need of hour appears to be the higher level of self-consciousness and sense of contribution from all feasible aspects and from every meticulous human being.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  The costs of fighting this crisis will be with us for years

[I]  US business leaders call for co-ordinated approach to safely reopen

[I]  Top of Form

Global trade contracts as coronavirus hits world economy

[I]  Top of Form

Investors baffled by soaring stocks in ‘monster’ depression

[I]  Top of Form

Fed caught in political crosshairs over bailout role

[I]  Top of Form

Cash hoarders and conglomerates have their day in the sun

[I]  Top of Form

The risk of a US double-dip depression is real

REUTERS

[I]  Mortality rates drop sharply in parts of India, bucking coronavirus trend

[I]  Indian funds seek to reassure investors after shutdowns fuel redemption fears

[I]  Showdown looms between Silicon Valley, U.S. states over contact tracing apps

[I]  France, Germany in standoff with Silicon Valley on contact tracing

[I]  U.S. deficit could quadruple to $3.7 trillion in coronavirus crisis - CBO

[I]  'Full fury' of coronavirus sends German business morale to record low

[I]  U.S. core capital goods orders eke out surprise gain

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K. Treasury Committee Head Urges Insurers to Pay Virus Claims

[I]  Japan Hopes Longer Holiday Marks End of Virus Lockdown

[I]  Oil Slump May No Longer Be a Curse for Renewable Energy

[I]  Canadian Stocks Climb For Fifth Consecutive Week as Tech Gains

[I]  Wall Street Rethinks What’s Possible in Week Oil Went Negative

[I]  Italy Dodges Downgrade With Credit Rating Affirmed by S&P

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Drop as Economic Outlook Sours

[I]  Fed Allows Banks to Eliminate Limits, Fees on Monthly Withdrawals From Savings Accounts

[I]  Global Economy Hit by Record Collapse of Business Activity

[I]  Millions of U.S. Workers Filed for Jobless Benefits Last Week

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Post lockdown: Big units get ready, MSMEs see roadblocks to restart

[I]  Domestic oil and gas producers seek govt support to mitigate impact of crude price crash

[I]  Rs 1-lakh crore fund in the works to repay pending dues to MSMEs: Nitin Gadkari

[I]  Why the economic devastation caused by Covid will hit women workers hardest

[I]  SC upholds capping excise duty refund to actual value

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India loosens up with a late-night order

[I]  Lockdown in Mumbai, Pune may extend till June

[I]  Pay cuts, layoffs: Startup morale under lockdown

[I]  No job or pay cuts: 3 auto cos assure staff

[I]  Govt gets started to make WFH process smooth

[I]  India's forex reserves surge $3.09 billion to $479.57 billion

[I]  Finance Commission against RBI lending to Centre

[I]  Economic crisis recovery perceptions low: TRA

[I]  Several states extend working hours from 8 to 12 hours in factories

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Banks want IBC proceedings in all pending cases to be suspended for 2 years

[I]  Kirana stores are the new battleground for India's e-commerce giants

[I]  Govt had Rs 1.35-trn outstanding loans from RBI in week to April 17

[I]  Finance panel's advisory council bats for support to small players, NBFCs

[I]  31% apparel units to shut down, 2.5 mn jobs at risk due to lockdown: CMAI

[I]  Major states still not allowing industries to reopen: FIEO to govt

Best Regards, ARBIND

25 Apr 2020

WAYS FOR ENJOYMENT ARE RIGHT THERE, EVEN FRIDAY IS STILL A FRIDAY. WISHING A DELIGHTFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 24 Apr 2020

India's plan to screen FDI from neighbouring countries and some fear it will affect projects and delay deals. India's government has redoubled efforts to push state-run banks to boost lending and it has demanded that lenders submit a daily report detailing the volume and scale of loans sanctioned. OPEC's share of India's oil imports fell to 78.3% in 2019/20, its lowest in at least 19 years as refiners in Asia's third biggest economy increased imports of U.S. and Mediterranean grades. About 4.4 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits last week in a continuation of a historic labor-market decline triggered by the coronavirus pandemic. Since mid-March, workers have filed more than 26 million jobless claims as global economy hit by record collapse of business activity. Japan has rejected lockdown because virus will resurge while Dubai prepares to relax coronavirus lockdown to support economy. Experts expect Global economic contraction to be steepest on record with a U-shaped recovery. ECB Seen Boosting Pandemic Response to Help Economy at the same time Hedge Fund assets dip below $3 trillion to least in six years while China’s 2020 economic growth seen sliding below 2% as per a survey. CII pegs GDP growth between -0.9% & 1.5% while IMF projecting 3% contraction of global GDP.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Merkel warns against lifting lockdown too quickly

[I]  Economic woes undermine Putin’s pledge pandemic is ‘under control’

[I]  US jobless claims of 4.4m take pandemic toll to a record 26m

[I]  Swiss central bank suffers record loss in market rout

[I]  US financial aid for Greenland sparks outrage in Denmark

[I]  China to give WHO an extra $30m to fight coronavirus

[I]  Japan rejected lockdown because virus will resurge, says expert

[I]  Dubai prepares to relax coronavirus lockdown to support economy

REUTERS

[I]  India's new foreign investment rules worry Chinese investors

[I]  South Asia coronavirus cases top 37,000, headache for governments eyeing lockdown end

[I]  Coronavirus thwarts vulture funds' efforts to finally crack China

[I]  India pushes lending, asks banks for daily reports - sources

[I]  OPEC's share in Indian imports lowest in nearly two decades - data

[I]  Fed to disclose who borrows what under its emergency programs 

[I]  More U.S. companies return payroll loans after new Treasury guidance

[I]  Global economic contraction to be steepest on record, recovery U-shaped

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hedge Funds Are on Defense and Testing the Stamina of a $5 Trillion Stock Rally

[I]  U.S. Aid Bill Passed; China Cuts Another Rate: Virus Update

[I]  ECB Seen Boosting Pandemic Response to Help Economy

[I]  Hedge Fund Assets Dip Below $3 Trillion to Least in Six Years

[I]  China’s 2020 Economic Growth Seen Sliding Below 2% in Survey

[I]  Singapore Home Prices Fall With Property Market at Standstill

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Millions of U.S. Workers Filed for Jobless Benefits Last Week

[I]  Global Economy Hit by Record Collapse of Business Activity

[I]  Frustrations Build for Those Still Awaiting Stimulus Checks

[I]  Ruth’s Chris to Repay Loan Amid Outcry Over Rescue Program

[I]  The Debt Is Soaring; Debt Risks Are Not

[I]  Fed Focuses on Lending Programs, But Monetary Policy Deliberations Loom

[I]  Some States’ Unemployment Claims Surged as National Rate Fell

[I]  Fed to Disclose Loan Amounts, Borrowers on Business Lending Programs

[I]  Newsletter: Historic Collapse in Economic Activity

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Recovery of interest for late GST payment needs to be adjudicated in case of dispute, says HC

[I]  As government wields stick, EXIM logistics players fall in line

[I]  Covid-19: CII calls for urgent across-the-board fiscal stimulus

[I]  South Asian Climate Forum sees normal monsoon this year

[I]  Renewables sector misses FY20 target due to headwinds

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Guide to opening your business after lockdown

[I]  Top companies, PSUs set to issue over Rs 45,000 crore bonds in April

[I]  RBI to conduct simultaneous purchase, sale of gilts via OMO on April 27

[I]  Corporates miss vendor payments, bill discounting platforms see red

[I]  Individual borrowers may find it hard to repay loans on time amid coronavirus outbreak: Assocham

[I]  DIPAM may look at sale of smaller CPSEs to meet FY21 disinvestment target

[I]  CII pegs GDP growth between -0.9% & 1.5%

[I]  IMF projecting 3% contraction of global GDP due to COVID-19 pandemic: Gita Gopinath

[I]  Fitch sees global economy shrinking 3.9 per cent in 2020

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Coronavirus impact: RBI's TLTRO 2.0 gets cold-shoulder from banks

[I]  India Inc gets IBC breather for six months amid coronavirus outbreak

[I]  PM Modi, Sitharaman to meet today to finalise second stimulus package

[I]  Stricter lockdown in the north pulls summer consumer sales down further

[I]  India crude oil production plummets 5.5% in March

[I]  Currency in circulation continues to remain high amid Covid-19 lockdown

MARKETS (11:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9155;  USDINR DGCX: 76.4700;  DJIA Mini: 23256;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5732;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 19210;  EUR-USD: 1.0764; Crude Oil (WTI): 17.32;  Gold (Spot): 1724

Best Regards, ARBIND

24 Apr 2020

YOU ARE ABOUT TO SHOW THE MOST AMAZING SIDE OF YOURS. WISHING A REMARKABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 23 Apr 2020

The coronavirus pandemic battered Asian economies in April with social-distancing policies and business closures taking a particularly heavy toll on the region's service sector firms. In the US, the same is expected to weigh on the financial condition of Social Security, which is currently projected to pay benefits that exceed its income in 2021. Trump has ordered a temporary block on some foreigners from permanent residence in the United States, saying he wanted to protect American workers and jobs during the coronavirus pandemic. The coronavirus pandemic pushed South Korea's economy into its biggest contraction since 2008 in the first quarter, as self-isolation measures hit consumption and global trade slumped. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac will be permitted to buy home loans for which borrowers have stopped making payments, but mortgage companies will have to pay a hefty fee to sell. European Central Bank to accept some junk-rated bonds as loan collateral as a latest action to ensure eurozone banks can access central bank cash during the coronavirus pandemic. Hedge funds suffer worst quarterly outflows since financial crisis while China struggles with sharp rise in unemployment and South Korea posts biggest GDP fall since 2008 as pandemic cripples demand whereas Britain is suffering worst peacetime downturn ever.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Remittance flows expected to plunge more than $100bn

[I]  International oil prices rebound following Trump warning

[I]  Restaurants, hotels and gyms face up to a future of social distancing

[I]  Hedge funds suffer worst quarterly outflows since financial crisis

[I]  US restaurant closings spur farmers to destroy food

[I]  Confidence evaporates among Europe’s crisis-hit consumers

[I]  China struggles with sharp rise in unemployment

[I]  India cannot simply spend its way out of a crisis

REUTERS

[I]  Special Report: India’s migrant workers fall through the cracks of the coronavirus crisis

[I]  Indian refineries scale back output as virus chokes demand

[I]  Global Economy: Pandemic throws Asia's services firms, factories into deeper decline 

[I]  South Korea posts biggest GDP fall since 2008 as pandemic cripples demand

[I]  Saudi Arabia may re-route tankers if U.S. imposes crude import ban - sources

[I]  Trump order temporarily limits U.S. immigration during coronavirus crisis

[I]  Japan's coronavirus shutdowns pummel service, factory sectors - PMIs

[I]  Britain suffering worst peacetime downturn ever; recovery may falter: Reuters poll

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil Collapse to Worsen China’s Deflation, Open Path for PBOC

[I]  Good Budget News on U.S. Relief Package May Be Bad News for Economy

[I]  Hedge Funds Suffer Largest Quarterly Withdrawals Since 2009

[I]  Europe Inches Toward a $2.2 Trillion Plan That May Never Happen

[I]  Flood of Cheap Cash Lifts India Company Bond Sales To Record

[I]  China’s Banks Halt Oil Product Positions as Investors Burnt

[I]  Singapore Sees Sharper Economic Slump as Virus Spreads Globally

[I]  Fitch Warns of Credit Risks If Development Banks Pause Repayment

[I]  Drought Dominates Outlook for Australia’s Farms, Not the Virus

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Small-Business Loan Fund May Run Dry Again. Is There Another Way?

[I]  Small-Business Loans: Strip Clubs, Marijuana Stores Need Not Apply

[I]  Emergency Grants to Small Businesses Average $4,360

[I]  Social Security Costs Expected to Exceed Total Income in 2021

[I]  Oil Price Rout to Hit U.S. Regional Economies

[I]  Regulator Moves to Ease Crunch at Mortgage Companies

[I]  European Central Bank to Accept Some Junk-Rated Bonds as Loan Collateral

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Covid-19 crushes micro and small enterprises

[I]  Railways offers incentives to freight customers

[I]  India to return to normalcy in 2-4 months: CT Group

[I]  Covid-19 impact: 36 per cent drop in Railways cargo in early April

[I]  Shipping ministry overrules port trusts to offer sops to users, PPP operators stung by the pandemic

[I]  Govt allows crew change of Indian seafarers at Indian ports

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Flood of pink slips coming, warn startups

[I]  Virus will be with us for a long time: WHO chief

[I]  Lockdown impacted 40 mln internal migrants: WB

[I]  Labour migration likely to hurt Rabi, Kharif crop

[I]  NBFCs cast shadow on economic recovery

[I]  India notifies FDI policy change mandating prior nod for border-sharing nations

[I]  MCA allows companies to hold first AGM before September 30

[I]  The steps India has taken so far to contain economic fallout of Covid-19

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Markets, economy take divergent paths amid Covid-19 uncertainties

[I]  NBFCs may fall by the wayside without a major forbearance package

[I]  Retailers want govt to allow sale of non-essentials amid Covid-19 lockdown

[I]  Coronavirus spread to weigh on domestic ports and logistics sectors

[I]  Another excise hike for petroleum products on cards to offset revenue loss

[I]  Covid-19: Global pvt wealth takes a hit; India sees 20% dip in Jan-March

[I]  Fundraising via corporate bonds shrinks 1.1% in FY20 as firms favour ECBs

MARKETS (11:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9258;  USDINR DGCX: 76.1100;  DJIA Mini: 23377;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5761;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 19360;  EUR-USD: 1.0830; Crude Oil (WTI): 15.50;  Gold (Spot): 1718

Best Regards, ARBIND

23 Apr 2020