HAPPY WEEKEND. YOU WILL LOVE THE WORLD AND THE WORLD WILL LOVE YOU.

Macro Economic News 07 Jul 2018

 

Global trade tensions and rising oil prices are expected to weaken the rupee over the next year, a Reuters poll has found, dragging the currency closer to the record low hit last week against the dollar. In the poll of 45 strategists taken July 2-5, the rupee was forecast to weaken to 68.90 per dollar by June 2019. The June employment report gives comfort to Federal Reserve officials who have played down concerns about the economy overheating and leaves them on track to continue gradually raising interest rates.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China hits back at ‘trade bullying’ Trump

[I]  Germany’s odd couple endure fiery political marriage

[I]  N Korean defectors caution US against Kim’s deceptive strategies

[I]  American ketchup next on EU’s list of trade targets

[I]  Britain’s retailers are too quick to blame business rates

[I]  Eurozone wage growth remains far from normal

[I]  Difficult question is how our lives will be fulfilled

[I]  Baby boomers happy to let state carry on paying

 

REUTERS

[I]  Dueling tariffs raise fears of long U.S.-China trade battle

[I]  India gold returns to premium, U.S.-China row limits interest

[I]  No breakthrough in nuclear talks as Iran demands more after U.S. exit

[I]  Duelling tariffs raise fears of long U.S.-China trade battle

[I]  China eyes expanded business ties with Eastern Europe amid EU concerns

[I]  U.S. jobs growth lifts Wall Street, offsetting tariffs

[I]  Belgium use daring and intelligence to outwit Brazil in thriller

[I]  Trade war risk, rising oil costs may keep rupee near record low

[I]  Investors to tune in for trade impact this profit season

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil, Beans and Steel: How Trade Wars Will Redraw Global Commerce

[I]  Theresa May Wins Cabinet Backing for U.K. Soft Brexit Blueprint

[I]  Why Soybeans Are at the Heart of the U.S.-China Trade War

[I]  U.S. Oil Could Soon Help Set the Brent Crude Price

[I]  Emerging-Market Currencies Rebound, Dollar Slumps Amid Trade War

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Jobless Rate Rises as Steady Hiring Draws More Job Seekers

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap Narrowed 6.6% in May

[I]  U.S., China Dig In for Long Trade Fight as Tariffs Take Effect

[I]  Fed Shifts Focus to Risks of Overheating Economy

[I]  In This Economy, Quitters Are Winning

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  CACP asks Centre to introduce price deficiency payment scheme

[I]  What the farm sector needs is urgent reform; loan waivers cause more harm than good

[I]  18% of installed wind capacity could be due for repowering

[I]  Related party deals are not job work, will attract GST, rules Appellate Authority

[I]  IBBI insists on independence of resolution professionals

[I]  Kharif sowing down by 14 per cent

[I]  US-China trade war may reopen oilmeal export window for India

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Indians are travelling more than ever. But why it's making people nervous across the globe

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $1.76 billion to $406 billion

[I]  India's engineering exports up 20 per cent despite US-China trade war: EEPC

[I]  Mauritius complains about inclusion in high-risk list

[I]  Free accident cover likely for Jan Dhan A/C holders

[I]  India Ratings gives thumbs down to Karnataka budget

[I]  Petroleum products to be brought under GST in stages, says Hasmukh Adhia

[I]  Oil price spike or ignore Donald Trump: India's big headache

[I]  Law Panel suggests to allow betting on sports as regulated, taxable activities

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  China blames US for 'largest-scale trade war' as tariffs kick in

[I]  US-China trade war: Whoever wins or loses, it is status quo for India

[I]  Government to soon announce new mechanism to ensure farmers get MSP

[I]  Game on, six vendors in contest to supply IAF with 110 fighters

Best Regards, ARBIND

07 Jul 2018

WISH WE LIBERATE FROM OWN CAPTIVITY GOOD MORNING

Macro Economic News 06 Jul 2018

Asia traders will be digesting the FOMC meeting minutes from June, and bracing for U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods set to go into effect Friday. Federal Reserve officials at their meeting last month signaled they could raise interest rates over the next year to a level that no longer seeks to stimulate growth, formally ending a long chapter in which the central bank unleashed unprecedented stimulus. Hiring at private U.S. employers grew less than expected in June, according to a report, as businesses struggled to find qualified workers.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US immigration crackdown disrupts businesses

[I]  EU rigidity on Brexit putting lives at risk, says German minister

[I]  Europe braces itself for twin Trump summits

[I]  Bank of England’s Mark Carney warns of hit from global trade war

[I]  UK business leaders invited to dine with President Trump

[I]  EU ombudsman says ECB in denial over bankers’ group

[I]  Pakistan seeks more loans from China to avert currency crisis

[I]  N Korean defectors caution US against Kim’s deceptive strategies

 

REUTERS

[I]  Iran to Trump: oil will cost $100 per barrel, and it is your fault

[I]  Global Markets: China anxiety hits Asia stocks as tariff deadline nears

[I]  Trump says U.S. tariffs could be applied to Chinese goods worth $500 billion

[I]  Pound to rally after UK leaves EU, say FX strategists: Reuters poll

[I]  As tariffs loom, China state media slams Trump's 'gang of hoodlums'

[I]  Japan household spending tumbles but real wages offer glimmer of hope

[I]  Do your Brexit duty, Britain's May tells her divided government

[I]  Major currencies in holding pattern ahead of U.S. tariff deadline, jobs data

[I]  Bank of England's Carney boosts expectations for August rate hike

[I]  U.S. energy, agricultural and plastics firms gird for next round of tariffs to drop

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Chinese Stocks Set for Longest Weekly Losing Streak in Six Years

[I]  Oil Price Spike or Ignore Trump: China and India's Big Decision

[I]  7-Eleven Arrives in Vietnam Aiming for 100 Stores in Three Years

[I]  Earnings Season Another Reason for Asia Traders to Sell

[I]  Here's How Asia Rate-Hike Bets Are Shifting on the Trade Fight

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Shifts Focus to Risks of Overheating Economy

[I]  Behind the Flattening Yield Curve: Fed Rate Increases and Tariff Fights

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Continues to Expand

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Rose Last Week

[I]  U.S., China Prepare for Trade Battle

[I]  Tax Wrinkle Spurs Pension Funds to Buy More Treasurys

[I]  U.S. Nonmanufacturing Activity Accelerated in June

[I]  In This Economy, Quitters Are Winning

[I]  Trade War Could Knock Global Growth, Says Bank of England

[I]  Factory Activity Heats Up as Manufacturers Position for Tariffs

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Banks agree not to undercut each other on loans

[I]  US sanctions effect: Indian banks’ reluctance to process payments worries Russia

[I]  Air India divestment still on the cards, Govt waiting for right moment: Choubey

[I]  Education and skill development, the most preferred areas for CSR funds

[I]  Order does not give govt powers over officers: Jaitley

[I]  ‘Be prepared for heightened volatility in 2018’

[I]  Global giants see big gaming play in India

[I]  Monsoon to revive over East and Central India

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Global trade woes, dollar surge leave copper red-faced

[I]  Gold exports down 13% post-GST

[I]  How Indore has set the tone for municipal bonds

[I]  In case of a bumper crop, MSP hike may create storage issues

[I]  Government plans to sell 7-8 million tonnes of wheat at Rs 1,890/quintal to bulk consumers

[I]  Engineering exports grow 20 per cent in April-May period

[I]  MSP hike may weigh on RBI’s inflation forecast, push up rates

[I]  Be a sport, make gambling legal: Law Commission

[I]  Ecommerce subgroup suggests FDI in inventory model

[I]  Are you a bitcoin investor? Today is the last day to save your investment

[I]  GST credits taken by tech companies under taxman’s lens

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  We should not take our eyes off IBC, says CEA Arvind Subramanian

[I]  India may invest around Rs 16.6 bn to buy 70% in Sri Lankan ghost airport

[I]  Trai issues changes to interconnect regulations, tweaks norms

[I]  India set off highest trade restricting measures among G20 nations: WTO

[I]  Govt in process of creating comprehensive plan for aviation sector: Prabhu

[I]  A right to sell at MSP: CACP wants legislation to ensure farmers benefit

[I]  Banks finalise inter-creditor agreement to fast track NPA resolution

[I]  Tougher entry into India for investors from 25 nations in 'high risk' list

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10713;  USDINR DGCX: 69.0425;  DJIA Mini: 24307;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7554;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21691;  EUR-USD: 1.1687; Crude Oil (WTI): 72.79;  Gold (Spot): 1253          

Best Regards, ARBIND

06 Jul 2018

WISH WE CREATE A BALANCE OF EXPERIENCE EXPERIMENT AND EXPECTATION. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 05 Jul 2018

 

Investors have got a little too optimistic about the timing for the European Central Bank to raise its benchmark interest rate from a record low, at least in the view of some policy makers. Trade barriers being erected by major economies could jeopardise the global economic recovery and their effects are already starting to show, the World Trade Organization said on Wednesday in a report on trade restrictions among G20 nations. Beijing reversed a plan to impose tariffs 12 hours before the U.S., saying it “won’t fire the first shot” and prepares to assess the levies about the same time as the U.S. Oil held near three-year highs on U.S. Independence Day as tight supplies at home and abroad overshadow a Saudi pledge to boost output.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Poland faces European backlash over judicial reforms 

[I]  Israel’s tech entrepreneurs struggle to lure overseas talent

[I]  The retreat from easy money that markets cannot escape

[I]  UK companies prepare EU bases in the lead-up to Brexit

[I]  Germany’s top telecoms regulator has US tech groups in its sights

[I]  US industry starts to feel pain of trade disputes

[I]  Malaysia suspends $22bn China-backed projects

[I]  Eurozone pay rises a relief for unions and ECB alike

 

 

REUTERS

[I]  China warns U.S. is 'opening fire' on global economy with tariff threats

[I]  Major currencies in suspense before Sino-U.S. tariff deadline, yuan steady

[I]  Polish-EU tensions flare again as new law requires judges to quit

[I]  China commerce ministry warns U.S. tariffs will hit global supply chains

[I]  BOJ's Masai urges banks to adapt to aging population, fintech

[I]  Iran threatens to cut cooperation with nuclear body after Trump move

[I]  WTO sees signs of trade tensions starting to affect global economy

[I]  UK economy picks up speed, raising chance of rate rise

[I]  Euro zone business activity picked up in June but doubts linger - PMI

[I]  China to cut coal use, curb steel in 2018-2020 pollution plan

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Says U.S. Tariffs to Backfire, Damaging World Economy

[I]  Biggest Buyers of India Bonds Show Tentative Signs of Return

[I]  Australia Disagrees With U.S. on Tariffs, Trade Minister Says

[I]  U.K. Services Growth Unexpectedly Jumps as Economy Picks Up

[I]  Volatile Yuan Puts Focus on China's Capital-Control Buffers

[I]  Kenya Central Bank Raises Growth Estimate on Agriculture Boost

[I]  Sainsbury Shows Need for Asda Deal as Grocery Growth Slows

[I]  Thailand Plans to Raise $2.9 Billion From Infrastructure Funds

[I]  Don't Expect Hong Kong's Empty-Home Tax to Cool Property Prices

[I]  Rate Policy Diverges in Southeast Asia as Currency Rout Deepens

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  China Scraps Plan to Impose Tariffs First

[I]  The Trade Slowdown Investors Fear Has Already Arrived

[I]  Factory Activity Heats Up as Manufacturers Position for Tariffs

[I]  Vote Resets U.S.-Mexico Relations on Trade

[I]  South Korea’s CPI Rises 1.5% in June

[I]  Mall Vacancy Rate Hits Six-Year High

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Exports may take a hit; glut possible

[I]  Ministers to discuss GST sop for digital payments on July 8

[I]  India plans to negotiate with US on oil imports from Iran

[I]  Corporate insolvency: IBBI specifies timeline for resolution process

[I]  Govt extends timeline for implementation of solar parks

[I]  Ministry seeks suggestions to step up exports

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Will NPA suck-in India's entire banking universe?

[I]  Kharif crop new minimum support price hike to cost centre ₹33,500cr more

[I]  Indians are falling out of love with gold

[I]  Trade wars: India should concede what it must, secure what it can

[I]  Public WiFi to contribute $20 billion to India’s GDP by 2019: Study

[I]  How to get private capital for Indian infrastructure

[I]  Govt weighs legislation on right to skill training

[I]  RBI tightens banks' statutory auditor rules

[I]  Cabinet approves extension of RRBs' recapitalisation scheme

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  I-T's record recovery of Rs 1 trn contributes 10% to direct tax collection

[I]  Steep hike in kharif MSPs may cost govt Rs 350 billion

[I]  Foreign direct investment: A long saga of broken promises

[I]  Insolvency process: IBBI rejigs norms, specifies timeline for resolution

[I]  Services PMI recovers from contraction, climbs to 52.6 on jump in orders

[I]  Here are the financial issues that NRIs might face on their return to India

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10754;  USDINR DGCX: 69.2000;  DJIA Mini: 24136;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7508;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21561;  EUR-USD: 1.1657; Crude Oil (WTI): 73.87;  Gold (Spot): 1256          

Best Regards, ARBIND

05 Jul 2018