LIFE IS A CALL FOR CONQUERING FAITH WITH CONFIDENCE AND COMPASSION. WISHING A CANDIDLY CAPTIVATING WEEK AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Mar 2019

                                                                                                                                                       

Income softened in January, driven by a sharp dive in both dividend and proprietors’ income. The US job market doesn’t get much better than this; all sorts of people who have previously had trouble landing a job are now finding work. Here’s a look at who’s getting ahead, who could be left behind and how long the boom can last. Inflation fell short of the FED 2% target in 2018 for a seventh consecutive year, though a closely watched measure of underlying price pressures gained traction in December. Growth slowed at U.S. manufacturing firms in February, a sign that the slowing global economy and uncertainty over trade could have clouded the outlook for factories. The Canadian economy slowed in the fourth quarter in its worst performance in more than two years amid a drop in business investment and softer household spending.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US lashes out at Brussels over failed dirty money blacklist

[I]  Brexit, Trump and Merkel skewered by carnival art maestro

[I]  North Korea paints upbeat picture of Trump-Kim summit 

[I]  US takes tough line with UK on post-Brexit trade talks

[I]  UK must hold EU polls if Brexit is delayed, says Bundestag

[I]  Pakistan returns captured Indian fighter pilot

[I]  Anti money laundering rules threaten Cayman property boom

[I]  Property funds likely to halt trading, says rating agency

[I]  Dwindling numbers of buy-to-let property purchases

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's growth may decelerate further despite election spending

[I]  Trump asks China to lift tariffs on U.S. farm products

[I]  U.S. companies adapt to 'endless' China tariffs

[I]  Bostic: Markets may doubt Fed's inflation commitment

[I]  IMF'S Lagarde says messy Brexit could have 'significant consequences'

[I]  U.S. consumer spending, factory data point to weak first quarter GDP growth

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hottest Nasdaq Run Since 2012 Gets Fuel From Tech Earnings Surge

[I]  Stocks Rise for Fifth Straight Week; Oil Tumbles: Markets Wrap

[I]  Startling Near-Halt to Economy Stokes Fear of Canadian Recession

[I]  NYC's $38 Billion of Debt Raised as Wall Street's Sway Wanes

[I]  China Finalizes Rules for New Technology Exchange in Shanghai

[I]  Europe Awaits China's Stimulus Signal as Export Economy Suffers

[I]  Greece Wins Moody's Upgrade as Reforms Starting to Bear Fruit

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Inside the Hottest Job Market in Half a Century

[I]  How Do You Stack Up in Today’s Job Market?

[I]  Personal Income Cooled in January

[I]  Inflation Fell Below Fed Target in 2018

[I]  Congress Faces Fall Deadline to Address Debt Ceiling

[I]  Five Takeaways From Powell’s Congressional Testimony

[I]  U.S. Factory-Sector Growth Slowed in February

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Slipped in late February

[I]  Canada’s Economy Delivers Worst Quarterly Growth in Two Years

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India’s MSP programme for pulses under WTO lens

[I]  Electronics policy to create a Sovereign Patent Fund

[I]  Auto industry welcomes FAME-II approval

[I]  GST collection drops to Rs. 97,000 cr in February

[I]  Car sales record tepid growth in February; two-wheeler sales fall

[I]  ‘India-EU free trade pact not possible without lowering tariffs on cars’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  How geopolitical de-escalation dims Rupee's volatility

[I]  Forex reserve up by $944 million at $399.21 billion

[I]  Dollar near 10-week high vs yen on upbeat US GDP

[I]  Gig economy on rise; 70% firms used gig workers in 2018

[I]  Farmers in border areas at standstill as standing crops await tending

[I]  Brazil, Australia lodge complaint in WTO over India's sugar subsidies

[I]  Retail inflation for industrial workers up 6.6% in January

[I]  EPFO to take action against firms not factoring special allowance for EPF computation

[I]  India's growth may decelerate further despite election spending

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Sebi tightens norms for liquid MFs, takeover regulations of firms under IBC

[I]  Merger of Railway and Union Budget: How it stands after five years

[I]  Ordinance to allow voluntary use of Aadhaar to rekindle privacy debate

[I]  Manufacturing PMI hits 14-month high in February on export orders

[I]  GST collections drop to Rs 97,247 cr in Feb; rate cuts may have hit mop-up

[I]  Sugar stocks jump by 10% following govt's decision to provide soft loans

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Mar 2019

SMILE, IT IS THE REASON FOR MILLIONS TO SMILE. WISHING A SMILING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 01 Mar 2019

                                                                                                                                                       

The economy completed one of the best years of a nearly decade long expansion, growing at a modest pace despite turbulent markets, uncertainties about trade with China and a government shutdown in late December. White House Economist Confident Economic Growth Will Top 3% This Year. U.S. taxpayers reported 33.5% more in net capital-gains income in 2017 than in 2016, according to new IRS data that provide the first look at the final year before the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act took effect. Activity in China’s critical manufacturing sector fell to its lowest level in three years in February, weighed on by weak global demand and the long Lunar New Year holiday. Indian Economic growth slows to 6.6% in Oct-Dec quarter and Core sector growth slowing to 1.8% in Jan.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump and Kim fail to reach nuclear deal 

[I]  Chinese state-linked debt unsettles bond investors

[I]  Pakistan to return Indian air force pilot as ‘peace gesture’

[I]  US economic growth loses steam in fourth quarter

[I]  Indian economy grows at slowest quarterly pace in more than a year

[I]  Europe’s utilities battle for survival

[I]  US music spending hits highest in a decade

[I]  Regulatory showdown awaits for Big Tech

[I]  Britain should let foreign graduates stay and work

 

REUTERS

[I]  India welcomes Pakistan's return of captured pilot

[I]  India's diesel demand to hit record highs in 2019 as country goes to polls

[I]  U.S. wins WTO ruling on Chinese grains; decision may also affect India

[I]  Gold hits two-week low as upbeat U.S. data lifts dollar

[I]  China's manufacturing activity shrinks again in Feb but at slower pace

[I]  Dollar scales 10-week high vs. yen on upbeat U.S. GDP

[I]  IMF agrees to extend Sri Lanka's $1.5 billion loan by one year

[I]  Indian economic growth slips to 6.6 percent, slower than expected

[I]  Fed's Powell: 'Muted' inflation gives room for wages to rise

[I]  Japan final Feb manufacturing PMI confirms fastest pace of decline in two-and-a-half years

[I]  U.S. economic growth in 2018 misses Trump's three percent target

[I]  Trump says hopefully India, Pakistan conflict coming to an end

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  North Korea’s Kim Vows to Meet Trump Again After Summit Collapse

[I]  U.S. Prepares Final China Trade Deal as Hawks Urge Caution

[I]  Wall Street Bulls Get a Reality Check From China

[I]  Asia’s Factory Woes Drag Into February Though Signs of Hope Emerge

[I]  Indonesia’s Inflation Rate Drops to Lowest in Almost a Decade

[I]  Fed's Powell Sticks With Message of ‘Patient’ Approach on Rates

[I]  This Week’s Trade War: U.S. Wins Short Game, China Takes Long

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Grew 2.6% in the Fourth Quarter

[I]  Capital Gains Jumped in Final Year Before Tax Cut Started

[I]  Tax Refunds Bounce Back After Slow Start

[I]  Jobless Claims Rose in Mid-February

[I]  Some States Are Sending Money Back to Taxpayers

[I]  China’s Factory Activity at Lowest Level in Three Years

[I]  Fed Chief Says U.S. Economy ‘Is in a Good Place’

[I]  White House Economist Confident GDP Will Top 3% This Year

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Centre moves to integrate Kashmir with mainland India

[I]  Economic growth slows to 6.6% in Oct-Dec quarter

[I]  Why drug firms are re-imagining their roles

[I]  Nod for software products policy

[I]  Foodgrain output in 2018-19 seen at 281 mt in Second Advance Estimate

[I]  Usha Thorat-led task force to ensure stability of external value of rupee

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  A tax ruling could change how MNCs make money in India

[I]  US Oil imports at 23-year low, as Opec nations cut shipments

[I]  Gold hovers near 2 week lows as dollar gains on upbeat US data

[I]  Dollar near 10-week high vs yen on upbeat US GDP

[I]  RBI forms task force to see overseas Rupee

[I]  In manufacturing’s digital dream, lies a lot of hope

[I]  Core sector growth slows to 1.8% in Jan

[I]  Centre emphasises farmer's role in exports promotion

[I]  Record rice output to propel India’s foodgrain production to 281.37 million tonnes in 2018-19

[I]  Foodgrains production may fall 1% to 281.37 million tonne: Agriculture Ministry

[I]  Gram Samridhi Yojana: New scheme to help unorganised food processing sector

[I]  Cabinet approves promulgation of Ordinance allowing trusts to setup units in SEZs

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Indian military signals de-escalation, warns Pakistan against 'provocation'

[I]  Real estate players see opportunity in the draft e-commerce policy

[I]  Govt may tweak jewellery hallmarking norms before making it mandatory

[I]  Robust demand for India Inc's overseas bonds despite India-Pak tensions

[I]  Iron ore prices rise by Rs 600-700 a tonne, but Karnataka prices down 15%

[I]  Non-food credit demand grew 13.1% in January, says RBI data

[I]  Govt will continue with policy to merge PSBs, says Arun Jaitley

[I]  RBI inks $75-billion bilateral swap arrangement with Bank of Japan

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10793;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0700;  DJIA Mini: 26014;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7092;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21632;  EUR-USD: 1.1372; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.42;  Gold (Spot): 1313

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

01 Mar 2019

LET THE LIGHT LIGHTEN UP EVERY MIND TO ENLIGHTEN EVERY HEART FOR DELIGHTING EVERY HUMAN. WISHING A LIGHT DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 Feb 2019

                                                                                                                                                       

The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened 10% last year, growing despite the Trump administration’s efforts through tariffs and other measures to make it smaller. In the strongest sign yet that an accord is near, U.S. Trade Representative said the U.S. was abandoning for now its threat to raise tariffs to 25% on $200 billion of Chinese goods. President Trump entered office determined to stop what he considered unfair practices by China. But he may now be tempted to settle, like his predecessors, for less-than-ironclad commitments. European businesses have eased back on borrowing as they become gloomier about their prospects in the face of a raft of uncertainties, including the possibility of a no-deal Brexit.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Pakistan and India face worst conflict in decades

[I]  Venezuela’s top talent seeks sanctuary in Spain

[I]  US and China settle on trade enforcement process

[I]  Ireland’s data regulator lists 16 Big Tech investigations

[I]  N Korea touts for investment ahead of summit

[I]  Surveillance from the sky may help to fight modern slavery

[I]  UK can emulate key accounting reforms of Sarbanes-Oxley Act

[I]  EU must solve low growth and defence weaknesses

 

REUTERS

[I]  World urges restraint as India, Pakistan trade blows over Kashmir

[I]  China February factory activity shrinks to three-year low, export orders worst in a decade

[I]  BOJ's Suzuki warns of more trouble for banks from weaker economy

[I]  Risk of more India, Pakistan military action unacceptably high: U.S. official

[I]  Cohen: Trump feared audit if he released tax returns

[I]  China's services activity cools in February: official PMI

[I]  Bank of Korea holds rates as growth risks rise, to sit tight for while

[I]  U.S. trade chief sees long-term China challenges, continued tariff threat

[I]  Japan's factory output posts biggest fall in a year, outlook sags

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Asia Stocks Slip as China PMI Data Dents Sentiment: Markets Wrap

[I]  Trade Truce May Throw Up a Surprise Winner: the Singapore Dollar

[I]  The ETF Finding Value in Emerging Markets

[I]  Ugly Batch of Tech Earnings Sends Shares Tumbling After Hours

[I]  China’s Factory Downturn Deepens Though Upside Signs Appear

[I]  China’s Yield Curve Steepens. A Good Sign for Growth? Not Quite

[I]  Australian Home Lending Now Weakest Since Reagan-Thatcher Era

[I]  U.K. Business Confidence Hits a Seven-Year Low Ahead of Brexit

[I]  U.S. Sanctions on Venezuela Are a Blessing to Colombian Oil

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Drops Threat of 25% Tariffs on Chinese Goods

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap in Goods Widened 10% in 2018

[I]  On China, Trump Risks a Repeat of Bush and Obama

[I]  Fed’s Powell Says Officials Close to Finalizing Portfolio-Runoff Plan

[I]  U.S. Pending Home Sales Rose 4.6% in January

[I]  Europe’s Slowing Economy Puts Businesses on the Back Foot

[I]  Slowing Home Price Growth and Construction Hit Housing Market

[I]  Powell Affirms Patient Approach to Interest-Rate Changes

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Decoding the Ordinance on unregulated deposit schemes

[I]  Centre in talks with UN Environment Fund for soft loans for compressed biogas projects

[I]  PE deals grew 36% y-o-y in January, says Grant Thornton

[I]  Govt’s $7-b recap plan for PSBs not sufficient to spur loan growth: Fitch

[I]  Awareness of Ayushman Bharat scheme still low in TN

[I]  What the ordinance on unregulated deposit schemes means to individuals, businesses

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Dollar stands tall amid caution over Sino-US trade talks

[I]  Banks sell bonds over SLR cap at fastest pace in 3 years

[I]  Bond veteran sees good days for Indian debt only in second half

[I]  India’s GDP growth seen at 6.7-7.2% in 3rd quarter

[I]  To save capitalism, we need to save communities: Raghuram Rajan

[I]  India's economy seen losing momentum ahead of election

[I]  All about the Unregulated Deposit Schemes Ordinance

[I]  Panel to overhaul Direct Tax law seeks 3 months extension

[I]  Bad populism is the ‘road to serfdom’ for economies: Raghuram Rajan

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Pakistan airspace a no-go, airlines in spot over cost of diverting flights

[I]  Finance Ministry asks direct tax code panel to revise existing I-T slabs

[I]  Late-stage fundraising for start-ups may be hit as tech stocks fall: Survey

[I]  Centre proposes agricultural power lines, but some states don't agree

[I]  CBDT chairman tells taxmen to boost collection without harassing taxpayers

[I]  Currency in circulation may touch around Rs 20.9 trillion by FY19

[I]  Far from reducing imports, India's oil and gas production has slumped

[I]  High inventory with channel partners to jolt farm input firms next season

[I]  Working hours in India one of the highest in the world, shows NSSO report

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10844;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4825;  DJIA Mini: 25987;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7082;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21465;  EUR-USD: 1.1377; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.92;  Gold (Spot): 1319

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

28 Feb 2019