DANCE WITH LIFE IS MOVING FROM CONDITIONAL INTERDEPENDENCE TO BEING ONE WITH EACH OTHER. WISHING A HARMONIOUS WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Nov 2019

 

Global debt is on course to end 2019 at a record high of more than $255 trillion, the Institute of International Finance estimated -- nearly $32,500 for each of the 7.7 billion people on planet. The FED, in its latest central bank financial-stability report, has identified elevated asset prices and historically high debt owed by U.S. businesses as top vulnerabilities facing the U.S. financial system. U.S. retail sales rebound as Americans spent more on shopping in October, signalling consumer spending remains on solid footing, but big-ticket purchases drop. U.S.-China trade talks are set to continue as both sides seek to hammer out a phase one trade pact. Eurozone harmonized inflation drops to nearly three-year low in October matching the preliminary estimate. Hong Kong sank into recession amid protests, trade war for the first time in a decade in the third quarter, government data confirmed. India’s top 1.5% accounts for 19% of total earnings as per the tax returns data. Untimely rains hit India's summer crops, delaying rural economy recovery as India witnesses the wettest June-September monsoon season in 25 years. Indian exports shrink for 3rd straight month; down 1.1% in Oct; imports fall 16.3%.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Latin America faces a second ‘lost decade’

[I]  Australian fires ignite bitter battle over climate change

[I]  ECB revokes licence of one of Austria’s best-known banks

[I]  Central bank trades prompted rival FX traders to share info

[I]  The US economy isn’t as competitive or free as you think

[I]  Boston property moves skyward as condo prices dip

 

REUTERS

[I]  Untimely rains hit India's summer crops, delay rural economy recovery

[I]  China central bank to maintain prudent policy to prevent inflation from spreading

[I]  Climate change, human activity rub salt into Venice's wounds

[I]  Trade deal hopes, surging health stocks power Wall Street to highs

[I]  Hong Kong confirms economy fell into recession amid protests, trade war

[I]  U.S. retail sales rebound, but big-ticket purchases drop

[I]  Global debt to top record $255 trillion by year's end

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Stocks Investors Loved-to-Hate Give Canada’s Market a Boost

[I]  Lebanon Bond Sell-Off Eclipses Argentina as Unrest Flares Up

[I]  Turkey Casts Venezuela Another Lifeline, Buying Its Scrap Metal

[I]  New ECB Benchmark Draws Scrutiny After Data Blip

[I]  Toronto Decline, Vancouver Recovery Leave Canadian Home Sales Flat

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Retail Sales Rebounded in October

[I]  Fed Flags Elevated Asset Prices, High Debt as U.S. Risks

[I]  New York Fed Adds $68.343 Billion

[I]  Warren Tax Plan Would Bring Rates Over 100% for Some

[I]  Deal on U.S.-Mexico-Canada Trade Pact Takes Shape, Pelosi Says

[I]  Powell Signals Optimism but Cites Trade Uncertainties

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Goods exports decline 1.11 per cent in October, trade deficit shrinks

[I]  Petroleum products, leather, garments dip; electronics, engineering, chemicals rise

[I]  No GST on salary, says CBIC

[I]  Railways hikes charges for meal, tea on Rajdhani, Shatabdi, Duronto trains

[I]  Rabi sowing affected in Madhya Pradesh, Punjab; overall acreage down 11 per cent

[I]  Wheat area down by 23 per cent; Punjab, Madhya Pradesh lag behind

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Cover on bank deposits could be enhanced soon

[I]  Trade deficit narrows to $11 billion in Oct

[I]  Forex reserve hits fresh high of $448 billion

[I]  Sino-US trade deal hopes lift Asian currencies

[I]  Consumer affairs ministry seeks removal of import bar to check pulses price hike

[I]  Consumer spend survey won’t be released: Ministry

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt paves way for insolvency resolution of financial service providers

[I]  Easing of IBC deadline to serve interests of public, debtor: MCA secretary

[I]  Top 1.5% account for 19% of total earnings: Tax returns data show disparity

[I]  Are India's falling consumer spending and strong GDP growth in sync?

[I]  Australia, New Zealand continue to bat for India's entry into RCEP

[I]  Exports shrink for 3rd straight month; down 1.1% in Oct; imports fall 16.3%

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
16 Nov 2019

EVERYTHING THAT GOD ALLOWS TO COME OUR WAY ALWAYS HAS A PURPOSE; FRIDAY COMES OUR WAY. WISHING A FRIVOLOUS FRIDAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 15 Nov 2019

 

Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers on Capitol Hill the central bank was optimistic its interest-rate cuts this year would buoy the U.S. economy against headwinds, including trade uncertainty and a global slowdown. A lower percentage of people out of work is relying on unemployment payments amid tighter state rules on obtaining the benefits and a strong job market. Germany narrowly avoids recession as growth ticks up in the last quarter. Australia considers to offer cheap loans to boost rare earths. Fed and BoE institutional models would not benefit the ECB. UK companies opine that their business with India may increase after Brexit. Moody’s cuts India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019. India's October diesel demand falls the most in nearly 3 years while wholesale inflation hits 3 year low in October.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Soaring Indian onion prices raise risk of political fallout

[I]  Chilean businesses count cost of riots

[I]  US and China struggle to finalise ‘phase one’ trade deal

[I]  Two Namibian ministers resign in fishing scandal

[I]  Germany narrowly avoids recession as growth ticks up

[I]  Australia to offer cheap loans to boost rare earths

[I]  A recession could fuel a new crypto boom and bust

[I]  Fed and BoE institutional models would not benefit the ECB

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's October diesel demand falls the most in nearly 3 years

[I]  U.S. and China 'getting close' to trade deal - White House economic adviser

[I]  Hong Kong to unveil depth of recession amid protests, trade war

[I]  'Suffering' German economy narrowly escapes recession in third quarter

[I]  Fed's Williams, echoing Powell, says policy is in 'a good place'

[I]  Strong healthcare costs help to lift U.S. producer inflation

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Powell Sees Few Risks Likely to Derail Record U.S. Expansion

[I]  Global Economy on Thin Ice With Frail Trio From China to Germany

[I]  Macro Risk Checks Which Hedges Actually Work and Which Are Duds

[I]  Singapore Touted as Capital Markets Model for Developing Nations

[I]  Thailand’s ‘Fragile’ Economy Is Expected to Post Muted Recovery

[I]  Japanese Banks Face Headwinds Even With Profit Goals in Sight

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Powell Signals Optimism but Cites Trade Uncertainties

[I]  Fed’s Bullard: After Three Cuts, It’s Now Time for Fed to Hold Steady

[I]  New York Fed’s Williams Backs Keeping Rates Steady

[I]  Fewer Jobless Americans Tap Unemployment Benefits

[I]  Fed's Clarida: U.S. Testing Edge of Full Employment, Price Stability

[I]  Rewrite of Lower-Income Lending Rules to Advance in December

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Steel companies hike prices by Rs 500-750 a tonne for the first time this fiscal

[I]  MSMEs oppose government move to redefine classification based on turnover

[I]  Cultivate fallow land and create job opportunities to address farmer suicides: NIAS study

[I]  UK companies say business with India may increase after Brexit

[I]  Moody’s cuts India’s GDP growth forecast to 5.6 per cent for 2019

[I]  Due date for filing GST returns for FY 18 extended to Dec 31

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Market worried over fiscal i math, repo-bond yield spread widens

[I]  CBDT mops up Rs 6 lakh cr in direct tax collection so far

[I]  Fresh probes against Indian forged steel fittings by US

[I]  US initiates new anti-dumping duty, countervailing investigations

[I]  India-Russia-China explore alternative to SWIFT payment mechanism

[I]  Wholesale inflation hits 3 year low in October

[I]  Labour Ministry rejigs social security code, yet again

[I]  Tax department going after CXO pay cheques

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Consumer spend sees first fall in 4 decades on weak rural demand: NSO data

[I]  Lenders may miss RBI's six-month deadline to approve debt-resolution plans

[I]  Land-buying hurdle hits private equity firms betting on warehousing units

[I]  Oct wholesale inflation at 40-month low of 0.16% on cheaper non-food items

[I]  MSME plays key role in becoming $5 trillion economy, says Union minister

[I]  Banks turning their back on India Inc, focusing on lucrative retail lending

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11920;  USDINR DGCX: 72.0400;  DJIA Mini: 27844;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7326;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23310;  EUR-USD: 1.1024; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.07;  Gold (Spot): 1468

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
15 Nov 2019

THE TRUE REFLECTION OF GOD IS SEEN IN CHILDREN; LET THE CHILD INSIDE TAKE OVER. WISHING A TENDER DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 14 Nov 2019

 

Love of cash hinders India's move to digital economy; as per RBI data, since the demonetisation, currency in circulation has grown, rising 17 per cent to ₹21.1 lakh crore as of the end of March 2019. Trade talks between the U.S. and China have hit a snag over farm purchases, creating another obstacle as Beijing and Washington try to lock down a limited trade deal. China's industrial output grew significantly slower than expected in October, as weakness in global and domestic demand and the drawn-out Sino-U.S. trade war weighed on activity in the world's second-largest economy experiencing jobs risk. Japan's economy ground to a near standstill in the third quarter with growth at its weakest in a year as the U.S.-China trade war and soft global demand knocked exports, keeping pressure on policymakers to ramp up stimulus to bolster a fragile recovery. Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers the central bank saw little need to cut interest rates further after making three reductions since July. The U.S. budget gap grew 34% in the first month of the fiscal year pushing the 12-month deficit past $1 trillion for the first time since February 2013. South Korea finance minister says, stimulus efforts are struggling; as recession takes hold, Hong Kong banks worry about risk of easier mortgage rules. Eurozone industrial output records second month of expansion and U.K. inflation hits 3-year low as energy price cap takes effect.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Top health websites are sharing sensitive data with advertisers

[I]  Powell sees little reason for December rate cut 

[I]  Netherlands cuts speed limit to curb emissions

[I]  EU’s gatekeeper laments bloc’s message to Balkans

[I]  South Korea stimulus efforts struggling, finance minister says

[I]  Eurozone industrial output records second month of expansion

 

REUTERS

[I]  Love of cash hinders India's move to digital economy

[I]  Jobs at risk as China's services sector feels heat of trade war

[I]  As recession takes hold, Hong Kong banks worry about risk of easier mortgage rules

[I]  China's economy grinds lower as October indicators miss forecasts

[I]  China's October property investment, sales growth at three-month low

[I]  Japan's economy nearly stalls in third-quarter, growth at one-year low as trade war bites

[I]  Australian jobs suffer biggest drop in three years, argue for more stimulus 

[I]  Fed chief Powell pushes back on negative interest rates 

[I]  U.S. inflation firms on rising healthcare, energy costs

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Powell Satisfied With Current Fed Interest Rates But Flags Risks

[I]  Brexit Is the Reason the U.K. Missed Out on Elon Musk’s Tesla Gigafactory

[I]  Unprecedented Hong Kong Chaos Raises Fears About What’s Next

[I]  U.K. Inflation Hits 3-Year Low as Energy Price Cap Takes Effect

[I]  Russian Stocks Become Emerging-Market Darlings on Rich Dividends

[I]  Spain Overtakes U.K. as Europe’s Worst Stock Market After Vote

[I]  China’s Investment Growth Slows to a Record Low

[I]  Australian Unemployment Unexpectedly Climbs; Currency Drops

[I]  RBNZ Could Cut in February if Needed, Deputy Governor Says

[I]  Japan’s Economy Decelerates Sharply Amid Trade Tensions

[I]  A Jump in Bond Yields Gives the Bank of Japan Some Relief

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Deal Hits Bump Over Farm Purchases

[I]  Fed’s Powell Signals Comfort With Current Interest-Rate Stance

[I]  Gas Prices Drive October Inflation Increase

[I]  U.S. Budget Gap Hits $1 Trillion Over Past 12 Months

[I]  Auto Borrowing Rises Amid Low Interest Rates, Solid Economy

[I]  Sweden to Abandon Negative Rates, but Currency Can’t Catch a Break

[I]  Newsletter: It’s Not the Economy Anymore, Stupid

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Love of cash hinders India's move to digital economy

[I]  RBI sees sharp fall in consumption

[I]  Retail inflation jumps to 4.62 per cent in Oct on higher food prices

[I]  CCEA nod to pay shipbuilding subsidy to yards on a scheme that ended 12 years ago

[I]  After factory output contraction, retail inflation now surges to 16-month high

[I]  Government extends moratorium on soft loan to sugar mills

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  CPI hits 16-month high, breaches RBI's target

[I]  Govt seeks Rs 1.69L cr grant to curb pollution

[I]  Why everyone is obsessing over Q2 GDP

[I]  Rupee plunges 62 paise, slips below 72 level against dollar

[I]  Market worried over fiscal i math, repo-bond yield spread widens

[I]  Sebi tightens disclosure norms for muni bonds

[I]  India, Switzerland ink pact on sharing financial information

[I]  Taxman gears up to impose 18% GST on CXO salaries

[I]  India to consider shifting dividend tax to investors from firms

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Supreme Court strikes down amended Finance Act rules for tribunals

[I]  Auto slowdown: Component makers, vehicle manufacturers differ on recovery

[I]  Riding the wave of online sales, smartphone shipments continue to surge

[I]  Slowdown blues for liquor: Consumption took a beating in September quarter

[I]  Housing inventory of 15 months in Bengaluru, 44 months in Delhi-NCR: Report

[I]  Rupee falls to over 2-month low on weak economic data, crosses 72 a dollar

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11841;  USDINR DGCX: 72.2200;  DJIA Mini: 27729;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7324;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23110;  EUR-USD: 1.1004; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.40;  Gold (Spot): 1465

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
14 Nov 2019

ONENESS IS THE CAUSE AS WELL AS EFFECT OF BEING RELATED; WITH EVERYONE AND EVERYTHING. WISHING A CONNECTED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 13 Nov 2019

 

Ignoring women customers costs the financial sector $700 billion a year. The US Fed has just added $112 billion to financial markets. Tariffs are emerging as the main stumbling block in efforts by the U.S. and China to come to a limited trade deal, a month after the two countries called a truce in their trade war. President Trump is counting on a strong economy carrying him to re-election. But the economy may have little bearing on how Americans vote next year. New Zealand Unexpectedly Holds Interest Rates while Italy banks rush to profit from ECB negative rates. Global car slowdown hits German industrial groups. UK jobs fall by most in over four years as election nears. Indian govt is in talks with several States to dismantle the Agricultural Produce Market Committees (APMCs) and move on to eNAM. SBI and Economists estimate India's July-September GDP growth at 4.2-4.7%.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Merkel urges EU to seize control of data from US tech titans

[I]  Hong Kong police warn city on ‘brink of total collapse’

[I]  BofA survey shows investor rush back into risk

[I]  Violence strains Mexico’s relationship with the US

[I]  Trump threatens escalation of trade war with China

[I]  Italy banks rush to profit from ECB negative rates

[I]  Dollar shortage threatens Lebanon’s banks

[I]  Global car slowdown hits German industrial groups

 

REUTERS

[I]  BRICS summit marks recovery of China-Brazil relations

[I]  NZ keeps interest rates unchanged, dashing easing expectations

[I]  Automakers expect Trump will delay decision on imposing EU, Japan auto tariffs

[I]  Chances of no-deal Brexit fall as PM Johnson's hopes rise -Reuters poll

[I]  Chile's finance minister calls for return to 'normality' as peso slides

[I]  Bolivia battles to restore stability as fallen Morales reaches Mexico

[I]  World's energy watchdog is undermining climate change battle, critics say

[I]  French fourth-quarter GDP growth will slip to 0.2%, Bank of France estimates 

[I]  German investor sentiment rises on trade developments, ZEW reports 

[I]  UK jobs fall by most in over four years as election nears

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Global Oil Demand to Hit a Plateau Around 2030, IEA Predicts

[I]  Brutal Cuts to U.K. Local Services Are Laid Bare as Austerity Ends

[I]  Trump Threatens Substantially More Tariffs If No China Deal

[I]  New Zealand Unexpectedly Holds Interest Rates; Kiwi Jumps

[I]  Rising Onion Prices Fueling India Inflation, Not Rates

[I]  Japan’s Shopping Blitz Likely Drove GDP by Less Than in 2014

[I]  Libor’s Demise Will Upend How Hugely Popular Derivatives Work

[I]  Corporations Pile Into Bond Market as Borrowing Costs Drop

[I]  Australia’s Booming ETF Market Just Hit a Speed Bump

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Tariffs on China Imports Emerge as Hurdle to Trade Deal

[I]  ‘It’s Not the Economy Anymore, Stupid’

[I]  Fed Adds $111.909 Billion in Temporary Liquidity to Markets

[I]  Proposed Bill Aims to Limit Consumer Loan Rates to 36%

[I]  West Coast Imports Plunge as Tariffs Hit Consumer Goods

[I]  Fed’s Harker Says October Rate Cut Wasn’t Needed

[I]  Clarida: Lowering Inflation Created New Challenges for Central Banks

[I]  Newsletter: Piling Up Debt

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  States should scrap APMCs and move on to eNAM: FM

[I]  Ignoring women customers costs the financial sector $700 billion a year

[I]  Government to decide on fate of digital media companies with FDI higher than 26 per cent

[I]  States should scrap APMCs and move on to eNAM: FM

[I]  Industry outlook negative for domestic auto dealerships, ...

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Shadow banks put lending on shaky grounds

[I]  Only keys can open stolen car cover claims

[I]  Non-PE backed IPOs shine a shade brighter than PE-backed firms on debuts

[I]  Investors press exit button; withdraw money from gold ETFs in Oct to book profit

[I]  RBI becomes net buyer of dollars in Sept, bought $5.61 billion

[I]  Expansion of bank membership on agenda of BRICS Summit

[I]  GDP may grow at 4.2% in Q2 :SBI

[I]  Government to ensure farmers get right price with the formation of producer organisations

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Delhi 'blinks green' as the fastest air cargo hub among India's metros

[I]  Govt's Rs 25,000-cr realty fund may see some 'structural challenges'

[I]  Premium realty players flock to affordable housing as prices rationalise

[I]  Economic slump, falling electricity demand hit power-generating units

[I]  Economists estimate India's July-September GDP growth at 4.2-4.7%

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11960;  USDINR DGCX: 71.6550;  DJIA Mini: 27605;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7322;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23330;  EUR-USD: 1.1014; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.75;  Gold (Spot): 1458

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
13 Nov 2019