WISH THIS WEEKEND BE A CELEBRATION OF PEACE, LOVE, AFFECTION AND JOY

Macro Economic News 16 Jun 2018

 

While Americans are spending like mad again, President Donald Trump has approved tariffs on Chinese goods worth about $50 billion and is reported that the U.S. is also preparing a second list of $100 billion of imports from China to rachet up the pressure on Beijing’s trade policies. Developing-market woes continue, with the Argentine peso at the center of the storm.The Turkish lira, Thai baht, Indian rupee are all under pressure.  European Central Bank sets end date for $3 trillion stimulus program. Following Fed tightening, and ECB tapering, the BOJ ended three days of major central-bank decisions by not doing very much at all. It left monetary policy unchanged, maintaining the settings on its yield-curve control program and asset purchases while cutting its inflation outlook. Russia’s central bank is due to announce its latest decision this morning.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China retaliates against US tariffs on $50bn of imports

[I]  Plan to publish full works of Marx is long tome in the making

[I]  US law firms revive bidding war for young talent

[I]  Beijing leans on lenders to back debt-hit HNA’s bond sale

[I]  Trump’s tariff strategy sharpens America First focus

[I]  Aquarius dispute shows EU leaders at sea over migration

[I]  Japan says it will run budget deficit until 2025 

[I]  White House sows confusion on immigration bill

[I]  Luxury goods makers confront rise of the robot

 

REUTERS

[I]  India faces worst long term water crisis in its history - government think tank

[I]  Wall Street builds immunity to trade war rhetoric

[I]  Authorities across Asia battle illegal gambling surge ahead of World Cup

[I]  U.S. warns Americans of terrorism threat at World Cup in Russia

[I]  U.S.-China trade fight leads stocks lower, oil sinks on supply fears

[I]  Arab forces seize entrances to airport in Yemen's main port city

[I]  Five questions on N.Korea and the science of denuclearisation

[I]  Trump tariffs a rounding error for U.S. economy so far, that may change

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hedge Funds Get Bullish on Oil Again as OPEC Prepares to Meet

[I]  A Greener Future Starts With Natural Gas, World Energy Chiefs Say

[I]  Trade Wars Are Hard to Define and Even Harder to End

[I]  Fed and ECB Inflict Fresh Blows on Currencies, Stocks

[I]  Hedge Funds Pick the Wrong Time to Go Big on Gold as Prices Drop

[I]  Hedge Funds Get Bullish on Oil Again as OPEC Prepares to Meet

[I]  Argentine Peso Resumes Plunge After Central Bank Shakeup

[I]  Oil Declines Ahead of Intra-OPEC Clash Over Pumping More

[I]  The EU Is Emerging as the New Sheriff for Global Financial Markets

[I]  Dudley Foresees Need for Fed Rate Hikes to Slow the U.S. Economy

[I]  U.S. Oil Exports, on the Rise to China, Face Threat of Trade Spat

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  China Delivers on Retaliatory Tariffs as Trade Feud Heats Up

[I]  China Warns U.S. Firms in China: Buckle Up

[I]  Behind the Scenes at G-7 Meetings, Allies Dismayed by Trump’s Jabs

[I]  Economic Growth in U.S. Leaves World Behind

[I]  U.S. Retail Sales Soared in May

[I]  U.S. Industrial Production Unexpectedly Declined in May

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rose in Early June

[I]  OECD Sounds Alarm Over ‘Broken Elevator’ for Social Mobility

[I]  Wage Growth Boosts ECB Confidence on Inflation Target

[I]  Bank of Japan Bucks Global Trend of Monetary Tightening

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt moves to get global funds to invest in an ARC for banks

[I]  Numbed by numbers? There’s a cure for ‘maths anxiety’

[I]  Centre sets renewable purchase obligation for FY22 at 21%

[I]  States set to reap bonanza from GST

[I]  Monsoon priming for a second wind from South

[I]  CAD to be in 2-2.5% range this fiscal: CARE Ratings

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Indian cities are burgeoning and this is what it needs to become smart

[I]  India, US may discuss visa issues, steel export tariffs

[I]  Heavy monsoon rains hit cardamom, tea crops

[I]  Forex reserve up by $0.88 billion at $413 billion

[I]  RBI introduces rupee interest rate options

[I]  Higher oil prices, GST may boost states revenue by Rs 37,400 crore in FY19

[I]  India to raise duty on 30 US goods

[I]  India, US may discuss visa issues, steel export tariffs

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Investments in small savings schemes rise to Rs 1.55 trillion in 2017-18

[I]  India's exports hit 6-month high; trade deficit widens as imports up 14.85%

[I]  India proposes retaliatory tariffs worth $241 mn on 30 US products

[I]  Ayushman Bharat, farmers' income to figure prominently in NITI Aayog meet

[I]  Rice exports to decline by 10% on restrictions from importing countries

[I]  Reserve Bank of India relaxes norms for FPI investment in bonds

Best Regards, ARBIND

16 Jun 2018

WISHING THE DAY BE FULL OF ELATION AND DELIGHT

Macro Economic News 15 Jun 2018

 

Trump approves tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese goods, the ECB announces an end to bond buying, and the BOJ is likely to stay the course. Mario Draghi said the euro-area economy is strong enough to overcome increased risk, justifying the European Central Bank’s decision to halt bond purchases and close an extraordinary chapter in a decade-long struggle with financial crises and recession. Policymakers will phase out the economic stimulus by the end of the year. China’s economy is suddenly falling short of expectations. May data for industrial output, retail sales and investment all came in beneath economists’ forecasts.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ECB to phase out €2.4tn bond-buying programme by year end

[I]  Merkel faces growing row with sister party over immigrants

[I]  IMF puts itself at odds with Trump over US growth

[I]  US retail sales post biggest gain in six months

[I]  Italy threatens to scupper EU’s trade deal with Canada

[I]  Russia raises retirement age to boost state budget

[I]  China poses ultimate test of Trump’s rationality

 

REUTERS

[I]  Demand for foreign workers may soften Japan's immigration rules

[I]  Oil holds a narrow range as OPEC meeting looms

[I]  Dollar soars and Wall Street gains as ECB holds off on rate hikes

[I]  Trump's tariffs pose risk to global trade, U.S. economy: IMF

[I]  France orders tobacco industry: stub out cigarette butt pollution

[I]  Canada says agreed with U.S. to keep NAFTA alive, no talks set

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Argentina Names New Central Bank Chief as Peso's Plummet Worsens

[I]  Argentina Got a $50 Billion Loan and Peso Is in Free Fall Anyway

[I]  Trump Approves Tariffs on $50 Billion of Chinese Goods

[I]  China's Debt Crackdown Helps Revive Flagging Dim Sum Bond Market

[I]  China’s Evolving Toolkit to Manage Monetary Policy

[I]  U.S. Fiscal Stimulus Raising Risks to Global Economy: IMF

[I]  Largest Industrialized Countries March Toward Renewables

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economic Growth in U.S. Leaves World Behind

[I]  U.S. Retail Sales Soared in May

[I]  IMF Sees U.S. Potential Growth at Half the Pace of White House Estimates

[I]  What Will the Fed Do With an Overshoot?

[I]  Fed Raises Rates, Sets Stage for Two More Increases in 2018

[I]  ECB to End Bond-Buying Program in December

[I]  U.S. Protectionist Stance Spooks Germany’s Economy

[I]  U.S. Preparing to Proceed With Tariffs on Chinese Goods

[I]  Nafta Talks Will Extend Into Summer, Canadian Official Says

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  NITI Aayog sees India headed for an aqua-calypse

[I]  Norms for EVs, alternative-fuel vehicles coming soon

[I]  At a meeting with envoys from OPEC nations, Pradhan stresses on responsible crude pricing

[I]  20 States on board to implement Ayushman Bharat

[I]  Indian Brands look to cash in on football frenzy

[I]  Monsoon takes a break, but basic features intact

[I]  Currency, bond markets take a hawkish Fed in their stride

[I]  Premium of non-life insurance companies rises 10% in May

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India suffering worst water crisis: Niti report

[I]  Time to taper? Euro zone bond markets brace for ECB shift

[I]  Banks propose private placement of gilts to soften bond yields

[I]  Indian cotton production likely to rise 8.1% to 373 lakh bales this year

[I]  Cotton exports likely to jump 43% in 2018-19

[I]  Another crude shock! WPI inflation hits 14-month high on costlier fuel

[I]  Government extends sale of pre-GST goods with stickers of revised price till July 31

[I]  Financial Stability panel discusses insolvency resolution process

[I]  Homebuyers, be careful, bankruptcy stops short of empowering you fully

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Anti-profiteering body in talks with FMCG firms over GST rate cut benefits

[I]  Sebi may propose removal of shareholding cap for setting up new bourses

[I]  Steel units seek easier norms for expeditious auction of mineral blocks

[I]  20 states sign MoU with govt to implement National Health Insurance scheme

[I]  Gold discounts widest in 9-month as higher prices tempered retail purchases

 

MARKETS (8:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10790;  USDINR DGCX: 67.9300;  DJIA Mini: 25196;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7779;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22828;  EUR-USD: 1.1565; Crude Oil (WTI): 66.95;  Gold (Spot): 1302          

Best Regards, ARBIND

15 Jun 2018

WISHING THE DAY BE FULL OF CARE AND CONFIDENCE

Macro Economic News 14 Jun 2018

 

Federal Reserve officials raised interest rates for the second time this year and upgraded their forecast to four increases in 2018, as the unemployment rate falls and inflation rises. Trump offers a warning on China trade tensions, and the Bitcoin bloodbath continues. Bitcoin extended its losses, bringing its four-session slide to as much as 20 percent as questions mount about whether the world’s biggest cryptocurrency was manipulated during last year’s record price surge.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed lifts rates and projects four rises for 2018

[I]  US, Canada and Mexico win joint bid to host 2026 World Cup

[I]  France starts asset sales to boost state finances

[I]  Asian leaders signal greater engagement with North Korea

[I]  World Cup carnival exposes limits of western sanctions on Russia

[I]  ECB on course to begin QE exit plan despite headwinds

[I]  Saudi-led coalition launches offensive on prized Yemen port

[I]  Theresa May plans Brexit bill amendment after Commons rebellion

[I]  Greece fast-tracks reform package to unlock final bailout funds

 

REUTERS

[I]  Airlines spread wings to escape airfare war at home

[I]  Trump says summit removed North Korean nuclear threat, but Democrats doubtful

[I]  Japan eying Abe-Kim summit with possible Pyongyang visit: paper

[I]  UK housing market still weak despite sign of more sellers: RICS

[I]  Brexit laws: What's changed and what happens next

[I]  Gasoline leads broad increase in U.S. producer inflation

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Canada Warns U.S. Against `Mano-a-Mano' Mantra on Foreign Policy

[I]  U.A.E. Introduces New Visa, Foreign Workers' Plan, WAM Reports

[I]  Hong Kong's Fed-Pacing Rate Hike Signals Reckoning Still to Come

[I]  U.K. Housing Market Is Stuck in the Doldrums

[I]  ‘Plain English’ Powell Praises U.S. Economy After Rate Hike

[I]  Trump Says He May Upset China on Trade as U.S. Tariffs Loom

[I]  Bitcoin Extends Its Collapse

[I]  ETF Investors Are Preparing for an Economic Slowdown

[I]  ‘50 Cent’ Volatility Buyer Is Back With Bet VIX Will Double

[I]  Treasuries Curve Reaches Flattest Since 2007 on Steeper Fed Path

[I]  Half of the World's Too Big to Fail Banks Are in a Bear Market

[I]  Vietnam Must Tread Carefully to Win Investment Grade, Fitch Says

[I]  World Bank Says It May Raise Thai Economic Growth Forecast

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Raises Interest Rates, Sets Stage for Two More Increases This Year

[I]  Fed Adjusts How It Raises Short-Term Rates

[I]  Borrowing Costs Climb Along With Fed Rate Increases

[I]  U.S. Preparing to Proceed With Tariffs on Chinese Goods

[I]  Rising Business Prices Point to Trend in Firming Inflation

[I]  Eurozone Industrial Production Continues to Falter

[I]  Demolishing Monopoly From Below: How Two Radicals Would Remake Markets

[I]  Consumer Prices Post Largest Annual Growth in More Than Six Years

[I]  Diverging Fortunes in U.S. and Europe Signal Widening Interest-Rate Gap

[I]  U.S. Budget Deficit Widens 23% on Weak Revenue Growth

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Housing for all: Now, carpet area up to 2,100 sq ft is eligible for interest subsidy under PMAY

[I]  KYC norms: Telcos told to replace Aadhaar with VID

[I]  UK car industry faces threat of post-Brexit ‘extinction’

[I]  Cabinet okays proposal to introduce Dam Safety Bill in monsoon session

[I]  To combat online crimes, govt to launch more cyber-security labs

[I]  TRAI’s broadband-via-public Wi-Fi network initiative panned by operators’ association

[I]  Despite ban, crypto-exchanges finding new ways to coin business

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Yield surge may prompt India to cut sales of short-term debt

[I]  Maharashtra govt sets up Milk Price Stabilisation Fund for co-op dairies

[I]  Major plan to drive shrimp production up in country

[I]  CAD widens to 1.9% of GDP in Q4FY18

[I]  India has just a decade to become a developed nation: SBI study

[I]  CBDT proposes amendments to three IT forms, invites public suggestions

[I]  RBI official frowns on NBFCs' rising exposure to large companies

[I]  Final guidelines for ARC sponsors soon: RBI official

[I]  Tax axe over endorsement pacts: Dealers of imported sports goods under taxman’s lens

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  With rising awareness, carmakers see a surge in demand for airbags

[I]  Visa cuts fee on card transactions, industry says business as usual

[I]  Home loans may grow 17-19% in FY19 on affordability, govt push: Icra

[I]  Fitch ups India's growth forecast to 7.4% for FY19; crude remains a risk

[I]  The curious case of India's trade with 'Hermit Kingdom' North Korea

[I]  India's CAD triples to 1.9% in Q4 year-on-year, pegged at 1.6% in FY18

[I]  Fed hikes rates amid stronger inflation, shifts from crisis-era stance

 

MARKETS (7:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10810;  USDINR DGCX: 67.6825;  DJIA Mini: 25248;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7694;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22888;  EUR-USD: 1.1797; Crude Oil (WTI): 66.72;  Gold (Spot): 1298          

Best Regards, ARBIND

14 Jun 2018