AUSPICIOUS GOODNESS IS COMING FROM EVERYWHERE. WISHING A PROMISING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 06 Apr 2019

 

If the world was at risk of sliding into recession, policy makers appear to have pivoted in time to prevent it. Britain's opposition Labour Party said that talks with the government on a last-ditch Brexit deal had made no progress. U.S. hiring sprang back in March, showing a slowdown in February was likely just a passing chill during a historically long stretch of job creation. The strong March employment report should assure Federal Reserve officials that weak payroll growth in February was an aberration and not the start of a more serious economic slowdown. President Trump repeated his call for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates and said it should restart buying assets to stimulate growth.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump calls for Fed U-turn to stimulate economy

[I]  May seeks to delay Brexit until end of June

[I]  UK banks among companies with largest gender pay gaps

[I]  US hiring bounces back in March but wage growth cools

[I]  Niger bears brunt as migrant exodus goes into reverse

[I]  German carmakers accused by EU of collusion over emissions

[I]  Consumer sentiment in Japan slumps to lowest in 3 years

 

REUTERS

[I]  As latest round of U.S.-China talks end, 'significant work' remains

[I]  May's Brexit talks with Labour stall, delay request fails to convince EU

[I]  U.S. employment report points to growing economy, tame inflation

[I]  Another make-or-break week for Europe?

[I]  "No reason" for further big Pakistan devaluations: Finance Minister Asad Umar

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hedge Funds Just Posted Their Best Quarter Since 2009

[I]  Trump Urges Fed to Open Up Monetary Floodgates to Juice Economy

[I]  May's Bid to Break Brexit Impasse Stalls as Labour Disappointed

[I]  Trump’s Fed Picks Have Fond Memories of the Gold Standard

[I]  Crude Oil Market Rallies on Fading Fears of a Glut

[I]  U.S. Jobs Rebound Reassures on Growth But Comes With Caveats

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Hiring Rebounded in March, Helping Ease Downturn Jitters

[I]  The World Seems to Have Dodged Recession, for Now

[I]  March Jobs Report Should Prompt Sighs of Relief From Fed Officials

[I]  Trump Urges Fed to Cut Rates, Resume Bond Purchases

[I]  U.S., China Tout Progress, Vow to Continue Trade Talks

[I]  The U.S. Jobs Market Bounced Back In March

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India gives China a list of 380 items whose exports can be increased

[I]  New I-T returns forms notified, seek more disclosures

[I]  28-lakh beneficiaries enrolled for PMSYM pension scheme

[I]  Central banks’ dovish stance props up markets

[I]  RBI cuts rate, but why is it not passed on quickly?

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Trump's crackdown on H-1B visa is hurting Indian IT cos in the US

[I]  Fitch sees no respite for flyers anytime soon

[I]  India Inc lays stress on fighting mental distress

[I]  Retail loan securitisation volume sees two fold growth in FY19

[I]  Kazakhstan taps Eastern Indian markets

[I]  Arvind Panagariya pitches for trade pact in services with US

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Investors in unlisted firms can't file ITR-1, ITR-4 forms, says CBDT

[I]  Sebi's age rule makes directors aged 75 or above quit 228 companies

[I]  Empowering women to retiring directors: How India Inc scores in governance

[I]  Govt urges banks to show results in existing gold monetisation scheme

[I]  MF's asset growth rate slips to 7-year low as volatility rattles investors

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
06 Apr 2019

SHARE YOUR SMILE WITH THE WORLD, YOU ARE JUST REBORN. WISHING A FRESH DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 05 Apr 2019

 

The RBI cut its policy interest rate by 25 basis points, in a widely expected move to boost the economy. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expect the Labor Department to say employers added a seasonally adjusted 175,000 jobs. The U.S. and China are aiming to reach a trade deal in the next four weeks, President Trump said, though he failed to announce a much-anticipated summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. The number of Americans filing applications for new unemployment benefits fell last week to the lowest level in half a century, the latest sign of a tight labor market. German manufacturers saw orders drop sharply in February, increasing the likelihood that Europe’s flagship economy could contract in the first half of 2019 in a setback for a weakened continent.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  China stimulus efforts show signs of stabilising economy

[I]  Changes to EU antitrust enforcement on Big Tech urged

[I]  German factory orders post biggest slump in two years

[I]  ECB tackles negatives of its interest rate policy

[I]  Trump walks back threat to immediately close Mexico border

[I]  Merkel vows ‘everything possible’ to avoid no-deal Brexit

[I]  Indian central bank cuts rates to boost growth

[I]  China state banks pull back from risky overseas projects

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI cuts rates by 25 bps a week before voting begins

[I]  As Trump eyed Cain for Fed, Cain raised money for Trump

[I]  Dollar hits three-week high vs yen on trade optimism; U.S. jobs report in focus

[I]  Trump says U.S.-China trade deal may be reached in four weeks

[I]  As Trump eyed Cain for Fed, Cain raised money for Trump

[I]  ECB rate hike timing pushed further back again

[I]  Japan February real wages dip 1.1 percent year on year

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Hails ‘New Consensus’ on Trade as Trump Talks Up Unfinished Deal

[I]  May to Keep Alive the Option of Brexit Deal Referendum

[I]  Trump Says Herman Cain, Ex-Pizza Executive, Is in ‘Good Shape’ for Fed Seat

[I]  Japan Wages Drop Unexpectedly in Blow to BOJ's Inflation Efforts

[I]  Higher Earners in Britain Are Being Hit by Stealth Tax Increases

[I]  China Keeps Gorging on U.S. Pistachios Despite Big Tariff Threat

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economists Expect Hiring Rise, Wage Gains in March Jobs Report

[I]  Trump Says U.S.-China Trade Deal Close

[I]  Trump Picks Herman Cain for Fed Seat

[I]  Jobless Claims Dropped to Lowest Level Since 1969

[I]  Fed’s Harker Sees at Most One Rate Rise in 2019, Another In 2020

[I]  Fed’s Mester Says Rate Increases Still Possible

[I]  German Manufacturing Slump Piques Fears Over Europe’s Flagship Economy

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  For 2nd time in 2019, RBI cuts repo rate by 25 bps

[I]  District-level ‘ease of doing business’ ranking to be launched soon: Prabhu

[I]  Committee on development of housing finance securitisation market to be set up

[I]  Liquidity tweak has potential to release Rs. 2.6-lakh crore over next four quarters

[I]  Banks get a breather on external benchmark of floating rate loans

[I]  Framework coming soon for timely resolution of customer grievances

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Fitch not convinced with India's growth story

[I]  Now, Fitch flags high joblessness, rural distress

[I]  Close to meeting FY19 fiscal deficit target: Finance secretary

[I]  Indian businesses prepare to enter Kazakh market

[I]  FTA is key to resolving India-US trade disputes, says advocacy group

[I]  Donald Trump goes after India, calls it one of the highest taxing nations in the world

[I]  US likely to renew waivers to countries importing Iranian oil, including India

[I]  RBI lowers GDP growth forecast to 7.2% for 2019-20

[I]  RBI cuts inflation forecast to 2.9-3 per cent for H1 FY20

[I]  India's services sector output growth at six-month low in Mar: PMI

[I]  Taxmen use rare law to collect dues directly from bank accounts of evaders

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI monetary policy: Repo rate lowered by 25 bps to 6% to boost growth

[I]  RBI to frame new rules on recasting bad loans after SC scraps circular

[I]  India's domestic air passenger traffic saw double-digit growth in Feb: IATA

[I]  No jobs? Hiring by services firms hit 6-month low in March, reveal PMI data

[I]  PE/VC investments up 26% in first quarter of 2019 at $10 billion

[I]  Finance Ministry wary of MFs' entry into commodity derivatives space

[I]  Consumers are getting optimistic about general economic situation: RBI

[I]  Falling corporate capital expenditure, slowing rural sales worry CEOs

[I]  Wholesale food inflation likely to dip in coming months, says report

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11702;  USDINR DGCX: 69.2275;  DJIA Mini: 26420;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7343;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21783;  EUR-USD: 1.1225; Crude Oil (WTI): 62.01;  Gold (Spot): 1291

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
05 Apr 2019

WITNESS THE DIVINE PLAN WORKING FOR THE HIGHEST GOOD. WISHING A DELIGHTFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 04 Apr 2019

An International Monetary Fund report highlights that an escalation of the U.S.-China trade war would drive manufacturing away from both countries and likely cause job losses, but would not change their total trade balances. The Trump administration’s demand that punitive tariffs remain to ensure Beijing enacts genuine overhauls has emerged as one of the biggest sticking points as U.S. and Chinese trade negotiators opened new face-to-face talks aimed at a deal. The U.S. private sector added 129,000 jobs in March, well below expectations. The U.S. services sector expanded at a slower pace last month, a sign that a key segment of the economy continues to cool. Orders for long-lasting factory goods dropped in February after three straight months of growth due to a sharp decline in civilian aircraft orders, although the overall drop was smaller than expected.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  May takes huge gamble with Labour talks

[I]  Great Barrier Reef at risk of failing due to global warming

[I]  EU steps up rule-of-law dispute with Poland and Romania

[I]  Pence hits out at two allies over Nato commitments

[I]  US and China draw closer to final trade agreement

[I]  China triples investment in emerging Asia on trade war

[I]  US tech groups push back on Australia social media law

 

REUTERS

[I]  Global Markets: Asian shares near 8-month highs, eyes on U.S.-China talks

[I]  Euro firms on trade optimism, sterling higher after Brexit vote

[I]  Saudi Arabia pledges $1 billion for Iraq at start of economic visit

[I]  BOJ Kuroda: Must scrutinize impact of easy policy on regional banks

[I]  Asian shares near eight-month highs, eyes on U.S.-China talks

[I]  Escalating U.S.-China trade war to hit manufacturing jobs: IMF

[I]  Brexit delay law approved by UK's House of Commons

[I]  NATO chief warns of Russia threat, urges unity in U.S. address

[I]  PM Abe says Japan must proceed with sales tax hike

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.S. Sets 2025 Target for China to Fulfill Trade Pledges, Sources Say

[I]  India Decision-Day Guide: a Back-to-Back Rate Cut Is in Store

[I]  A Hundred Days Later, Tech Stocks Poised to Erase Their Whole Rout

[I]  The Decade of Deleveraging Didn’t Quite Turn Out That Way

[I]  France Reaps Brexit Benefits as U.K. Investments Rise

[I]  Venezuela Bondholders Get Warning Inside Manhattan Law Office

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Tariffs Take Center Stage in U.S.-China Trade Talks

[I]  Few Winners, Many Losers From Trade Tariffs, IMF Finds

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Added 129,000 Jobs in March

[I]  U.S. Services-Sector Growth Cooled in March

[I]  U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Fell in February

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Hotel rooms: Independent/unbranded segment still dominates with 72% share

[I]  Insolvency professionals to administer refunds to investors

[I]  Brexit and lessons for the Indian media

[I]  How SC order on pension scheme alters your EPF plans

[I]  MSMEs need low-cost funds to scale up rooftop solar capacity: Deloitte

[I]  Average ethanol blending from December to March increases by 8 per cent

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  EU, Russia, Costa Rica seeks to join consultations in WTO dispute over India's sugar subsidies

[I]  Exports in March to reach $32.38 billion; over $330 billion in 2018-19: Suresh Prabhu

[I]  New investment proposals in 2018-19 lowest in 14 years

[I]  India set to grow at 7.2% this fiscal on rising consumption: ADB

[I]  Govt, RBI will have to bring new rules on NPA after SC order: Amitabh Kant

[I]  Ruling may derail resolutions, open the way for more litigation

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Indian Railways receives boost from govt to finance strategic projects

[I]  Tax board's proposal of lowering budget target to Rs 11.3 trn shot down

[I]  SC order on RBI circular: More options for banks to tackle defaulting firms

[I]  Developers can't have agreements biased against buyers, rules SC

[I]  Want to leave EU with an exit deal on May 22, says Theresa May

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11743;  USDINR DGCX: 68.8100;  DJIA Mini: 26301;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7333;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21765;  EUR-USD: 1.1244; Crude Oil (WTI): 62.40;  Gold (Spot): 1291

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
04 Apr 2019

IT IS GOOD TO TAKE A PAUSE IN THE PURSUIT OF HAPPINESS AND JUST BE HAPPY. WISHING A CHEERFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 03 Apr 2019

 

The Turkish ruling party’s apparent loss of the country’s two biggest cities risks disrupting its well-honed system of political patronage and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ability to fix an ailing economy. Major auto makers posted declines in U.S. sales for the first quarter, adding pressure on car companies already grappling with weaker conditions in important markets globally.  Cities around the world, from New York to London to Stockholm to Sydney, are struggling to solve growing affordable housing crises. Orders for long-lasting factory goods dropped in February after three straight months of growth due to a sharp decline in civilian aircraft orders, although the overall drop was smaller than expected.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU draws up strict conditions for Brexit extension

[I]  Israelis learn to stomach Netanyahu as economy lifts mood

[I]  Barnier warns no-deal Brexit is increasingly likely

[I]  Taiwan warns of fake news amid China meddling fears

[I]  WTO warns of ‘strong headwinds’ in global trade

[I]  China’s central bank asks police to probe fake report

[I]  Saudi women cook up a revolution in food trade

[I]  Australian government unveils pre-election tax cuts

[I]  US shopping centre vacancies rise to eight-year high

 

REUTERS

[I]  Supreme Court quashes RBI directive on resolving bad debt

[I]  Trade war, Brexit could slow developing Asia's 2019, 2020 growth: ADB

[I]  China March services activity quickens to 14-month high in further sign of recovery: Caixin PMI

[I]  Yen slips, Aussie rises as worries recede over U.S.-China trade

[I]  Trump says NATO countries' burden-sharing improving, wants more

[I]  Global wind power capacity to grow 50 pct by 2023: industry group

[I]  Trade war, Brexit could slow developing Asia's 2019, 2020 growth: ADB

[I]  Japan's March services PMI shows slightly slower growth

[I]  South Korea fin min says will draft extra budget of less than 9 trillion won by April-end

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K.’s May Seeks Deal With Labour to Break Brexit ‘Logjam’

[I]  A Long-Lost Hedge Fund Hub Is Slowly Emerging From the Shadows

[I]  This Time Is Different for the Yield Curve? They Said That Last Time

[I]  China-U.S. Trade Talks Enter Crunch Period as Liu Arrives in DC

[I]  Growth Outlooks for India and Southeast Asia Cut by Asian Development Bank

[I]  New Registry Plans to Expose Hidden Vancouver Property Owners

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Auto Sales Stumbled in First Quarter

[I]  Affordable Housing Crisis Spreads Throughout World

[I]  What Modern Monetary Theory Gets Right and Wrong

[I]  U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Fell in February

[I]  Turkish Vote Clouds Erdogan’s Economic Control

[I]  Real Time Economics: Manufacturing Shows Signs of Life

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  In blow to IBC, apex court strikes down RBI’s Feb 2018 NPA order

[I]  ‘Nearly 70% chances of El Nino this year’

[I]  With election round the corner, Rs. 2,000 notes get scarce

[I]  WTO sees trade tensions hitting volumes in 2019

[I]  Govt to discuss strategy to boost exports to China

[I]  Rating agencies see further delay in resolution process of stressed assets

[I]  A chance for promoters to pull out distressed companies

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  FY19 exports may be highest ever at $330 billion

[I]  India sets up institute in Africa to augment agrarian economy

[I]  European Union launches WTO cases against India, Turkey

[I]  Manufacturing slumps to 6-month low in March but biz sentiment up

[I]  Greater clarity required on data sharing, CII on draft e-comm policy

[I]  Wages rise under MGNREGA with EC endorsement

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Industry slams draft national e-commerce policy, calls it vague

[I]  Boycott calls for Chinese handsets ignore reality of India's chipset market

[I]  Two-wheeler sales continue to fall in March; pull down overall sales

[I]  WTO trims global trade growth forecast for 2019 to 2.6% from 3.7%

[I]  Indian Railways targets at least 50% of freight traffic by 2030

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11795;  USDINR DGCX: 69.0675;  DJIA Mini: 26235;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7324;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21705;  EUR-USD: 1.1221; Crude Oil (WTI): 62.78;  Gold (Spot): 1293

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
03 Apr 2019