WISH THIS WEEKEND EXPANDS FRATERNITY ACROSS HUMANITY. HAPPY WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 25 Aug 2018

 

New research from the Federal Reserve warns against placing too little attention on an unemployment rate that falls below levels regarded as likely to maintain stable inflation. Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester said the economy’s solid performance justifies further gradual interest-rate increases. Demand for long-lasting goods produced by U.S. factories fell in July because of a decline in aircraft sales, but underlying demand grew modestly. Tariffs on steel and aluminum are driving up the value of shipments of metals being produced domestically, but they have little effect on the quantity being churned out.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed’s Powell sees few signs of US economy overheating

[I]  Norway wealth fund should keep oil stocks, says report

[I]  Russia backs down on proposed tax on industrial groups

[I]  Italy and EU clash over fate of stranded migrants

[I]  The world’s hottest new artist: an algorithm?

[I]  China’s central bank gives itself more leeway on setting exchange rate

[I]  Germany’s record budget surplus triggers calls for tax cuts

 

REUTERS

[I]  India, China agree to expand military ties after defence talks

[I]  Pakistan disputes U.S. account of call between Pompeo and new PM Imran Khan

[I]  Lane weakens into tropical storm as flood hazard lingers over Hawaii

[I]  U.S. stock fund investors show no fear of King Dollar

[I]  Fed's Bullard warns of recession risk in raising rates

[I]  Trump accuses social media firms of 'silencing millions'

[I]  Italy clashes with EU over migrants stranded on boat

[I]  U.S. sanctions on Russia to stay: Bolton

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  ECB Hunt for Europe's New Bank Watchdog Starts With Irish Claim

[I]  U.S. Warns Russia It Will Hit Assad If He Uses Chemical Arms, Sources Say

[I]  PBOC Joins Forces With Powell to Hit the Brakes on Dollar Rally

[I]  A Shrinking Slice of the American Economic Pie

[I]  The Complex Calculations Behind Angela Merkel's ECB Strategy

[I]  U.S.-China Talks Draw a Blank, Bringing Fresh Tariffs Into View

[I]  ECB Hunt for Europe's New Bank Watchdog Starts With Irish Claim

[I]  Investor Optimism on Global Oil Price Wanes

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed’s Powell Defends Pace of Rate Hikes to Avert Overheating

[I]  Fed Signals Unease About Drop in Unemployment

[I]  Fed’s Mester Says Gradual Rate Increases Still Best Path

[I]  U.S. Durable-Goods Orders Fell 1.7% in July

[I]  Rising Metals Prices Show Little Sign of Substantially Boosting U.S. Output

[I]  Home Sales Tumbled In July for the Longest Slump Since 2013

[I]  How ‘Intangible Capital’ Explains Rising Corporate Concentration, Weak Investment

[I]  BOE Economist Warns of Giant Firms’ Effects on Inflation, Growth

[I]  Inequality Grows Between Top Firms, Everybody Else, Paper Finds

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Banks want to tap database of I-T, GST departments

[I]  Russia pitches defence contracts worth $10 billion to India

[I]  ‘Industry 4.0 will make India a leading manufacturing economy’

[I]  Inter-State flow of wind power begins

[I]  Monthly inflows into MFs likely to grow over 30% in FY20: AMFI chief

[I]  Demand growth squeezing availability of coal despite increase in production

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  IPO proceeds enough for 18-24 months

[I]  Rupee will remain vulnerable till Turkey sets house in order

[I]  Forex reserve drops by $33.2 million to $400.84 billion

[I]  RBI may have shifted rupee intervention limit, say analysts

[I]  Kharif planting gathers steam in last leg due to fresh spell of rains

[I]  High borrowing costs, weak rupee to impact India Inc: Report

[I]  India, Singapore sign Second Protocol amending bilateral trade pact

[I]  Centre approves 1.12 lakh more houses under PM's housing scheme

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  QR codes on drug packages on cards, to help in implementing price revisions

[I]  Clock is ticking for Rs 3.8 trn stressed assets; 70 firms may land in NCLT

[I]  Rising costs, growing demand for shift wages pull down tea industry

[I]  Kharif sowing may fall short of last year's level by almost 1.3 mn hectares

[I]  More financial scams in the offing, says West Bengal FM Amit Mitra

[I]  Sebi wants mutual fund industry to highlight short-term risks better

Best Regards, ARBIND

25 Aug 2018

WISHING A DAY OF SELF TRANSCENDENCE. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 24 Aug 2018

 

The formal discussion at this week’s Fed retreat with global central bankers will be about the impact of monopolies, but new economic uncertainties are sure to dominate chats over cocktails and mountain hikes. Trade talks between the U.S. and China failed to produce any visible sign of progress, reducing the prospects of a deal soon, people closely tracking the talks said. Sales of new homes declined for the second straight month, the latest in a string of economic data pointing to a soft run in the housing market amid an otherwise booming economy.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  ‘Brutal’ Australian politics behind likely demise of PM Turnbull

[I]  Angela Merkel seeks to secure EU top job for Germany

[I]  Donald Trump’s fate hangs on definition of hush money

[I]  UK business faces storm of red tape under no deal with EU

[I]  Australian prime minister on verge of being ousted

[I]  Venezuela’s neighbours urged to keep borders open

[I]  China woos Wall Street as reciprocal US tariffs take effect

 

REUTERS

[I]  Kerala seeks at least 100 billion rupee loan

[I]  Surge in Indian buying sends West African oil flows to Asia to record in August

[I]  U.S.-China trade talks end with no breakthrough as tariffs kick in

[I]  Japan July inflation stagnates, lacks demand-driven support

[I]  Red tape and border delays if no Brexit deal, Britain warns firms

[I]  Turkey says U.S. waging 'economic war', lira weakens

[I]  U.S., China impose new tariffs, escalating trade war

[I]  Fed policymakers see rate hikes, blurring dove-hawk divide

[I]  Drop in U.S. jobless claims points to labor market strength

[I]  ECB minutes point to worries about trade war, protectionism

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hong Kong Intervenes Again to Defend Peg as Dollar Strengthens

[I]  Nafta Talks Set to Run Into Next Week as Canada Sits on Sideline

[I]  Japan’s Steady July Inflation Leaves 2% Target Out of Sight

[I]  No August Lull for This Global Economy as Trade Battles Heat Up

[I]  Expect More Volatility in the Turkish Lira

[I]  Fed Officials Say Rate-Hike Criticism by Trump Won't Sway Policy

[I]  U.S., China Enter Day Two of Trade Talks as New Tariffs Kick In

[I]  No Major Progress in U.S.-China Trade Talks as Tariffs Bite

[I]  Eurodollar Whale Betting on Fed Rates Looks Well Beyond December  

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  As Central Bankers Meet, Economic Uncertainties Weigh on Outlook

[I]  At Jackson Hole, Monopolies Are in Focus

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Talks End With No Sign of Progress

[I]  Home Sales Tumbled In July for the Longest Slump Since 2013

[I]  Treasury Moves to Block Path Around Cap on State Tax Deductions

[I]  ECB Determines Eurozone Still Needs ‘Significant’ Stimulus

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Fall for Third Consecutive Week

[I]  Argentina’s Economy Contracted 6.7% in June From Year Earlier

[I]  Dealers Saw Roughly Two More 2018 Fed Hikes Before Last FOMC Meeting

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  New Industrial Policy to focus on jobs, push tech use, cut red tape

[I]  Panel for rollout of 5G services by 2020

[I]  Behind the wheel, again

[I]  India to clock 7.7% growth in April-June quarter: Moody’s

[I]  SEBI chief expresses concern over concentration of assets in MF industry

[I]  Rain belt shifting to North, N-E over next four days

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  World Bank launches world-first blockchain bond

[I]  'Maha kharif sowing 94% complete, but only 50% loan disbursed'

[I]  Flood damage may slash India's coffee output by 20 per cent : Trade body

[I]  Government extends sugar export deadline by 3 months till December

[I]  Moody's puts India growth in 2018, 2019 at 7.5%

[I]  India Inc. finds pricing power in fastest-growing world economy

[I]  India needs 3-4 global sized banks: NITI VC Rajiv Kumar

[I]  CBDT asked to clear ambiguity over STT on physical settlement in F&O

[I]  Government imposes standard environment clearing conditions for 25 sectors

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Ongoing depreciation of the rupee to add to India Inc's borrowing woes

[I]  SBI fixes plans for six stressed power assets; RBI deadline ends Monday

[I]  Govt snubs WhatsApp's no, wants it to trace origin of fake news messages

[I]  5G launch in India likely by 2020, economic impact of $1 trillion by 2035

[I]  Foreign investors, Indian retailers to join hands against e-commerce draft

[I]  Govt imposes standard green clearance norms for as many as 25 sectors

[I]  Monsoon will shift towards central, east India till August-end: IMD

[I]  B2C deals gain traction in banking as digitisation cuts down middlemen

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11571;  USDINR DGCX: 70.2800;  DJIA Mini: 25689;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7539;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22487;  EUR-USD: 1.1548; Crude Oil (WTI): 68.13;  Gold (Spot): 1186

Best Regards, ARBIND

24 Aug 2018

WISH THIS DAY LOVES YOU FOR JUST BEING YOU. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 23 Aug 2018

 

The U.S. and China kicked off two days of talks in Washington aimed at settling an escalating trade battle, with the U.S. claiming the advantage because Beijing is struggling to keep its economic growth from faltering. Federal Reserve officials at their last meeting signaled they were likely to raise interest rates next month and expressed more concerns than before that prolonged trade disputes could disrupt economic growth. Sales of previously owned homes in the U.S. declined for a fourth straight month in July, as rising prices and limited inventory of affordable housing continued to sideline buyers despite solid economic growth.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Rome extends threat to private sector after bridge collapse

[I]  US and Europe cross economic turning point

[I]  Federal Reserve frets over ability to fight next recession

[I]  Pressure on Trump rises after Cohen threat to aid Mueller

[I]  EU vows to get tough on UK’s market access after Brexit

[I]  Angola’s IMF request highlights financial strain

[I]  Business leaders need to speak up against Trump trade policy

 

REUTERS

[I]  Asian markets cautious as U.S. tariff deadline looms

[I]  Iran threatens to hit U.S., Israel after Trump aide warns of 'maximum pressure'

[I]  Japan August flash manufacturing PMI rises on domestic demand, exports weak

[I]  Australian PM tenure looks terminal, leadership crisis suspends parliament

[I]  Australia bans China's Huawei from mobile network build over security fears

[I]  Britain to set out advice on how to prepare for a 'no deal' Brexit

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Why Greek Banks' New Loans Are Not Enough for Cratered Economy

[I]  Trump Auto Tariff Threats Hinder Push for Nafta Deal

[I]  North Korea Speeds Construction Spree Ahead of Anniversary

[I]  Cohen's Plea Reveals Web of Hush-Money Witnesses, or Targets

[I]  U.S., China Resume Trade Talks as Trump Imposes New Tariffs

[I]  How Australian Political Turmoil Is Impacting Markets Down Under

[I]  China Infrastructure Push Spurs Debt Sales, Calls for New Liquidity

[I]  SEC Quashes More Bitcoin ETF Pitches in Another Blow to Crypto

[I]  Mexican Peso Rally Shows Traders Are Betting a Nafta Deal Is Near

[I]  Why Greek Banks' New Loans Are Not Enough for Cratered Economy

[I]  Brexit-Bound London Beats Global Rivals to Lure Real Estate Cash

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Seizes on Chinese Economic Vulnerability as Trade Talks Start

[I]  Adviser to Bernanke, Yellen Will Reprise Role for Powell

[I]  Fed Signals Rate Increase Next Month

[I]  Home Sales Tumbled In July for the Longest Slump Since 2013

[I]  Nafta Talks Near Accord on Key Points, Mexican Official Says

[I]  For U.S. to Stay in WTO, China May Have to Leave

[I]  Treasury Readies Its Punch Back at Workarounds on Tax Deduction Cap

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI mulls ‘approver’ clause to aid in probes

[I]  With GST, kicking the butt just got harder

[I]  PMO allays fears over e-commerce policy draft

[I]  Recapitalisation plan will boost PSBs, but stress may persist, says Moody’s

[I]  Drug retailers worried by growth of e-pharmacies

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  US imposes preliminary anti-dumping duties of over 50% on metal pipes made in India

[I]  By invoking national security clause, Donald Trump goes for nuclear option in trade war

[I]  Consumption economy & infrastructure: Two sides of same coin

[I]  Freebies may be freed of GST payment burden

[I]  Wages under national rural jobs scheme may be revised

[I]  Finance Ministry asks PSU bank CEOs to check frauds in NPAs or face penal action

[I]  State of Indian economy: Is it time to go bearish?

[I]  The great divide: How inclusive growth still eludes India

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Drug firms ask govt to raise ceiling prices of drugs under price control

[I]  Curbing piracy could help India's music industry touch Rs 20 bn by 2022

[I]  Changing consumer dynamics: Brands are targeting young urban singles

[I]  Digital-first economy? Bank transactions via cheques hit all-time low

[I]  MP plays safe with safeguard duty for solar tender, revises conditions

[I]  Fuelled by steel production, coking coal imports may climb to 58 mt by 2023

[I]  All you need to know about NABARD's 'agriculture household' survey

 

MARKETS (09:15 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11602;  USDINR DGCX: 70.0750;  DJIA Mini: 25693;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7547;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22403;  EUR-USD: 1.1553; Crude Oil (WTI): 67.93;  Gold (Spot): 1192

Best Regards, ARBIND

23 Aug 2018