IT IS FUN TO OBSERVE OUR MIND FOOLING US INTELLIGENTLY; MAY BE ON WEEKEND. WISHING AN ASTUTE WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 09 Nov 2019

 

Forex reserve soars by $3.5 billion to new lifetime high of $446 billion. Indian banks wrote off more than $30 billion worth of bad debt in the year to June 30, helping to lower stressed loans on their books by 8.5%, according to central bank data reviewed by Reuters. RBI tells banks not to charge transaction fees for NEFT from Jan 2020 while it raises cap on borrowing from MFIs to Rs 1.25 lakh in rural areas. Moody cuts India’s ratings outlook to "negative" from "stable", citing increasing risks India will grow at a slower pace than in the past and also cut U.K. outlook to negative on policy ‘paralysis’. OECD proposes global minimum corporate tax rate. Report released at CII Connect 2019 says Indian government can tie up with nations, companies to give start-ups a leg-up. Indian business optimism for December quarter falls over 19% amid slowdown in demand while U.S. consumer sentiment rises on views of finances, economy while Japan is set to launch first economic stimulus since 2016. The U.S. and China are grappling with a dual challenge on trade.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Office workers take to streets over Hong Kong fatality

[I]  Von der Leyen defies Macron over Balkans EU accession

[I]  OECD proposes global minimum corporate tax rate

[I]  Japan to launch first economic stimulus since 2016

[I]  Trump says he has not agreed to China tariff rollback

[I]  Germany’s eurozone gambit could meet a swift death

[I]  Geneva’s property market boosted by tax reforms

 

REUTERS

[I]  Moody's cuts India's outlook to 'negative', citing rising growth risks

[I]  Trade deal doubts clip world stock rally, oil wavers

[I]  India's bad debt eased by write-offs, underlying problem remains

[I]  UK spending plans, Brexit paralysis put rating at risk - Moody's 

[I]  Trump says has not agreed to roll back tariffs on Chinese goods 

[I]  IMF to release first tranche of $6 billion Pakistan loan package

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  U.K. Outlook Cut to Negative by Moody’s on Policy ‘Paralysis’

[I]  Oil Bulls Make Shy Comeback as Trade Deal Hopes Are Rekindled

[I]  Fed Officials See Climate Change as Pressing Threat to Economy

[I]  Trump Gives Treasuries a Lift by Downplaying Progress on Tariffs

[I]  U.S. Consumer Sentiment Rises on Views of Finances, Economy

[I]  Repo Fragility Exacerbated by a Hot New Corner of Funding Market

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump Says U.S. Hasn’t Yet Agreed to Ease China Tariffs

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Talks Face Another Hurdle: Where to Sign the Deal

[I]  WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown

[I]  Fed's Daly: Fed Cannot Ignore What Climate Change Is Doing to Economy

[I]  Fed’s Brainard Says Climate Change Might Have Implications for Neutral Interest Rate

[I]  Fed’s Bostic ‘Fairly Comfortable’ With Holding Rates Steady for Now

[I]  Newsletter: Not Enough Workers or Not Enough Jobs?

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  CII-KPMG report suggests ways for start-ups to go global

[I]  Vehicle manufacturers will have to incentivise scrapping of unfit vehicles: Steel Scrap Policy

[I]  ‘Mass enterprises’ provide stable job opportunities: Survey

[I]  Onion storage: India should explore Israel, Brazil models, says Ficci

[I]  Moody’s cuts India outlook to ‘Negative’

[I]  Cotton output for 2019-20 projected at 354.5 lakh bales

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Sending money through NEFT won't cost you

[I]  October inflation print may not be comforting

[I]  D-Street made Rs 43 lakh crore since DeMo

[I]  Moody’s downgrades outlook on Indian cos

[I]  Where's India headed? The report card so far

[I]  Forex reserve soars by $3.5 billion to new lifetime high of $446.09 billion

[I]  Euro near lowest in weeks as dollar holds gains on trade optimism

[I]  Business optimism for December quarter falls over 19% amid slowdown in demand

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Moody's cuts India's credit outlook to negative; govt not convinced

[I]  Nomura slashes India's FY20 GDP forecast to 4.9% from 5.7% earlier

[I]  Govt notifies scrapping policy, mandates discounts on junking old cars

[I]  Revenue intelligence officers should act as facilitators for taxpayers: FM

[I]  Multiple regulators hurting bond market development: RBI official

[I]  RBI raises cap on borrowing from MFIs to Rs 1.25 lakh in rural areas

[I]  RBI tells banks not to charge transaction fees for NEFT from Jan 2020

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
09 Nov 2019

THE BEST GIFT IS TO FORGIVE; THE FIRST PERSON IS TO FORGIVE IS YOURSELF; THIS FRIDAY. WISHING AN EMPATHIC DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 08 Nov 2019

 

Global debt load surges to new all-time record high of $188 trn. China and the United States have agreed to roll back tariffs on each others' goods in a "phase one" trade deal if it is completed, officials from both sides said. Economists are roughly split over whether the recent hiring slowdown in the US reflects primarily a shortage of workers or softening demand for labor. China has officially started researching sixth-generation telecoms technology. German industrial production slumped in September while The Bank of England said it expects the U.K. economy to pick up modestly over the next three years if lawmakers back Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal and the country pursues a free-trade accord with the European Union. Merkel rejects Macron warning over Nato ‘brain death’. A Reuters poll showed that a slowing domestic economy will prevent India's rupee from recouping this year's losses against the dollar in 2020, with optimism around an easing in the U.S.-China trade dispute not enough to give it a further boost. India's dependence on imports for Crude oil, natural gas increases. CBDT notifies PAN-Aadhaar inter-changeability to enable quoting of the Aadhar number instead of PAN in various forms and documents.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Merkel rejects Macron warning over Nato ‘brain death’

[I]  China and US agree to lift some tariffs in sign of trade war thaw

[I]  Colombia bucks dismal trend for Latin American economies

[I]  Italy warns against German banking union plans

[I]  Brussels cuts growth forecasts in ‘protracted’ slowdown

[I]  German industrial production slumped in September

[I]  Iran warns Europe over collapsing nuclear deal

[I]  Bank of England to cut rates if economy slows further

 

REUTERS

[I]  Slowing economy spells tough times ahead for rupee

[I]  China, U.S. agree tariff rollback if phase one trade deal is completed

[I]  NATO experiencing 'brain death', France's Macron says

[I]  Japan's September household spending rises at fastest pace on record

[I]  Japan September real wages rise for first time in nine months - government

[I]  China, U.S. agree tariff rollback if phase one trade deal is completed

[I]  China kicks off work on 6G research, state media say

[I]  Japan Abe to instruct ministers to compile stimulus package - NHK

[I]  Japan firms say October tax hike impact milder than 2014 increase - Reuters survey

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Is Keeping Stimulus in Check. Here’s What May Change That

[I]  Why Indonesia Is Missing Out as Companies Move Out of China

[I]  Fed Says $500 Billion in Losses Show the Economic Threat of Climate Change

[I]  Precious Metals Get Crushed as End-of-the-World Trade Implodes

[I]  Frozen by Fear: The Year That European Fund Investment Got Scary

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  WSJ Survey: Economists Split on Causes of Hiring Slowdown

[I]  China Claims Tariffs Will Go, but Others Express Doubts

[I]  N.Y. Fed: Regulators Have Growing Interest in Climate-Change Risks

[I]  Retirees’ Mandatory IRA Withdrawals Would Shrink Under Treasury Plan

[I]  Bank of England Forecasts Modest Economic Boost if Brexit Plan Passes

[I]  China Embraces Bankruptcy, U.S.-Style, to Cushion a Slowing Economy

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Any ‘further decision’ on RCEP can be taken only if other members address our concerns, says MEA

[I]  ‘Rules of Origin’ and base rate year for duty were some of the sticking points

[I]  City of London explores steps to ‘supercharge’ India’s green finance sector

[I]  Retailers want level playing field with online players; flag deep discounts, predatory pricing

[I]  Global black tea production up, thanks to India

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India sees 26.9 % decline in MMR since 2013

[I]  Agriculture Ministry told to prepare ‘zero edible oil import’ plan

[I]  India may impose anti-subsidy duty on imports of copper wire rods from 4 nations

[I]  India's dependence on imports increases: Crude oil, natural gas output falls

[I]  CBDT notifies PAN-Aadhaar interchangeability

[I]  Commerce ministry raises issue of DRI notices to exporters over IGST with FinMin

[I]  15th Finance Commission likely to get 6-month extension

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Tussle between traders, FMCG firms worsens over differential pricing

[I]  Govt may tighten presumptive taxation norms, do away with some deductions

[I]  Resolution of bad assets: RBI set to recast inter-creditor agreement

[I]  Irdai issues draft norms on wellness services in health insurance products

[I]  Govt asks homebuyers to approach lenders for revival of their loans

[I]  Rs 25,000-crore realty corpus: Experts worry over implementation

[I]  Global debt load surges to new all-time record high of $188 trn: IMF chief

 

MARKETS (06:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12005;  USDINR DGCX: 71.0925;  DJIA Mini: 27639;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7372;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23480;  EUR-USD: 1.1049; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.85;  Gold (Spot): 1467

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
08 Nov 2019

THE GOD HAS CHOSEN YOU TO BLESS WITH CHOICEST OF HIS BLESSINGS. WISHING A BLISSFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 07 Nov 2019

 

Brazil is expected to vote for the first time against an annual U.N. resolution condemning the U.S. economic embargo on communist-run Cuba, two people in the Brazilian government told Reuters. The U.S. collected a record $7 billion in import tariffs in September as new duties kicked in on consumer goods from China. US Nonfarm labor productivity declined from the second quarter of this year in contrast with Economists survey of expected a 0.9% increase. U.S. imports of goods fell sharply in September, the latest sign that slowing global growth may be spilling into the domestic economy. China, after years of pumping out financial support to keep companies afloat and workers happy, has embarked on a debt reckoning—rapidly building a bankruptcy system to take on a significant pickup in corporate defaults. EU and China agree to protect regional food and drink. Central bankers have been busy creating a positive legacy on climate change while BOE is expected to hold steady as Brexit fog thickens. India's cabinet has approved 100 billion rupees ($1.4 billion) for a fund to help clear stalled housing projects. Fitch raises India's FY20 fiscal deficit forecast to 3.6% of GDP. IMF puts question mark on India's fiscal math while it wants Indian government to be more credible, transparent on fiscal numbers. India examines creating regulator to settle e-commerce disputes.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  German eurozone banking plan wins cautious backing

[I]  Brazil’s blockbuster oil auction falls flat

[I]  EU and China agree to protect regional food and drink

[I]  France to ‘take back control’ of immigration policy

[I]  Central bankers have been busy creating a positive legacy on climate change

 

REUTERS

[I]  India approves $1.4 billion for fund to help stalled housing projects

[I]  India seeks foreign investments in oil and gas sector - minister

[I]  Recent trade hope gains likely fleeting for China's yuan: Reuters poll

[I]  PBOC says blockchain solves trade authentication, financing issues

[I]  U.S. SEC enforcement activity hits second-highest level ever in 2019

[I]  Banks, funds propose shorter trading day in Europe, bourses split 

[I]  Exclusive: Brazil likely to vote with U.S. against Cuba at U.N. over embargo

[I]  China targets individual behaviour with 'green living' campaign 

[I]  Mood of Japan manufacturers at its bleakest since 2013, outlook weak - Reuters Tankan 

[I]  Explainer: Central bank digital currencies: edging towards reality?

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  These Are the Signs Traders Are Watching for Quantitative Easing in Australia

[I]  BOE to Hold Steady as Brexit Fog Thickens: Decision Day Guide

[I]  This Is What Awaits South Africa if Moody’s Cuts Its Rating to Junk

[I]  America’s Housing Crunch Is So Bad It May Hurt City Bond Ratings

[I]  Europe Will Step Up Push Into Green Finance, Dombrovskis Says

[I]  ECB’s Holzmann Says Monetary Policy Has Reached Its Limit

[I]  Mortgage Stress Tests Boosted Canada’s Financial Stability: CMHC

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Collected a Record $7 Billion in Tariffs in September

[I]  Fed Adds $62.542 Billion To Markets Wednesday

[I]  China Embraces Bankruptcy, U.S.-Style, to Cushion a Slowing Economy

[I]  If Warren Scraps Private Health Care, Beware Unintended Consequences

[I]  U.S. Productivity Fell 0.3% in Third Quarter

[I]  Fed’s Williams Says No Rate Changes Penciled In, Economy Will Drive Policy

[I]  Fed’s Evans: Fed Has Moved Policy to Slightly Accommodative Stance

[I]  Drop in Consumer-Goods Imports Points to Slower U.S. Growth

[I]  U.S. Job Openings Edged Lower

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  At mine-safety seminar experts call for more underground mines

[I]  Efforts to tap potential in mining should be made ‘safer, better’

[I]  HC asks Tax Dept to permit GST assessees to file for transitional credit

[I]  Family businesses: Most have no succession plan, finds ISB study

[I]  Government relaxes onion import norms as prices cross ₹100/kg

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  IMF puts question mark on India's fiscal math

[I]  Global bond selloff over US-China trade thaw revives ‘tantrum’ fears

[I]  Agriculture Ministry told to prepare ‘zero edible oil import’ plan

[I]  Maharashtra’s 2019-20 sugar production likely to fall by 45%

[I]  IMF wants Indian government to be more credible, transparent on fiscal numbers

[I]  Fitch raises India's FY20 fiscal deficit forecast to 3.6% of GDP

[I]  India examines creating regulator to settle e-commerce disputes

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt likely to extend 15th Finance Commision's term by six months

[I]  Long winter ahead for truck makers as rentals drop 3-4% after festivities

[I]  RBI panel for maximum of two-layered core investment companies by 2021

[I]  India may be looking at a dry spell for FTAs if RCEP falls through: Experts

[I]  Mudra boost to employment: Beneficiaries of the scheme create 11 mn jobs

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12013;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1825;  DJIA Mini: 27402;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7373;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23280;  EUR-USD: 1.1061; Crude Oil (WTI): 56.34;  Gold (Spot): 1491

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

07 Nov 2019