ए जिंदगी तुझसे मोहब्बत है, तो है. WISHING A BLISSFUL WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 08 Feb 2020

 

Indian tour operators estimate they could lose up to $500 million because of cancellations and it could rise four-fold if the virus fear persists through the year. The epidemic continued to stifle activity across economies, especially in Asia. Consumer sentiment in India worsened to an almost five-year low and manufacturing slack at companies widened. The US employers added 225,000 jobs in January and the jobless rate was 3.6%, signs the U.S. labor market is positioned to fuel economic growth in 2020. The solid January employment report should comfort Federal Reserve officials about the state of the U.S. economy before the recent threats to global growth surfaced from the virus outbreak. The Federal Reserve said that risks of weaker-than-expected U.S. growth had declined late last year but that the possible spillovers from the effects of the new coronavirus in China present a new risk to the outlook. The U.S. Consumer Credit tops forecast on surge in revolving debt while a survey finds Indian Consumers' mood is worsening to 5-year low and building slacks. Finance Minister said, “Working on FRDI Bill, but can’t commit to timeline” whereas 5L Indian credit cards on sale on the dark web. RBI in its inflation outlook flags price rise in food and other items.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  German carmakers can fend off China, says Berlin

[I]  Coronavirus outbreak weighs heavily on global economy

[I]  China lockdown sends ripples worldwide as supply chains and consumer spending dry up

[I]  Early hype around adoption of IoT networks gives way to realities on the ground

[I]  Unemployment rate ticks up to 3.6% in an otherwise strong start to 2020

[I]  Australian dollar hits lowest level in nearly 11 years

[I]  Growth-sensitive currency drops as coronavirus jeopardises economic outlook

 

REUTERS

[I]  India tour operators face severe blow from coronavirus

[I]  Global defence firms line up as India goes shopping to update ageing fleet

[I]  Treasury's Mnuchin sees U.S. GDP growth less than 3% in 2020

[I]  Asia Gold: Virus continues to take toll on demand in China, Hong Kong

[I]  Consumer discretionary names could see bumpy ride

[I]  Mild weather boosts U.S. job growth; jobless rate ticks up

[I]  Fed says risks to economy easing, but calls out coronavirus in report to Congress

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Brutal Month Has China Analysts Rethinking Everything Yet Again

[I]  U.S. Closes Antitrust Probe of Carmakers Over Emissions Pact

[I]  U.S. Consumer Credit Tops Forecast on Surge in Revolving Debt

[I]  U.S. Drones Scouring for Rare Earths to End Reliance on China

[I]  Commodity-Related Currencies Hammered as Risk-Off Returns

[I]  Turkey’s Defense Line Fails as Lira Slips Past 6 Per Dollar

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Economy Added 225,000 Jobs in January

[I]  Fed Officials Likely to Take Comfort From Jobs Report

[I]  Xi Assured Trump China Will Meet Obligations Under Deal, Kudlow Says

[I]  Fed: Possible Spillovers From Coronavirus Pose New Risk to Economic Outlook

[I]  Bill to Boost Unions Advances in U.S. House

[I]  U.S. to Seek Trade Pact With Kenya

[I]  Americans Joining Workforce at Record Rate

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Working on FRDI Bill, but can’t commit to timeline: FM

[I]  Finance ministry expects at least 80% of taxpayers to move to new tax regime

[I]  Consumer sentiment in India is worsening to almost five-year

[I]  ‘$5-b defence exports by 2024’

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Women CEOs make 45% less than male peers

[I]  5L Indian credit cards on sale on the dark web

[I]  Indian consumers’ mood is getting worse

[I]  Bonds to beat swaps as ECB-like move boosts debt charm

[I]  GST compensation fund likely to fall short by Rs 25,000 cr in current fiscal: ICRA

[I]  India not negotiating comprehensive FTA with US currently: Piyush Goyal

[I]  FPIs opting not to file tax returns in India may need to cough up more

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  FPIs may face challenges related to withholding tax on dividend income

[I]  Govt to reintroduce FRDI Bill, no timeline yet: FM Nirmala Sitharaman

[I]  Price rise in food and other items flagged by RBI in inflation outlook

[I]  Days ahead of trade talks, US unhappy with cess on medical devices

[I]  Consumers' mood is worsening to 5-year low, slack building: Surveys

[I]  RBI move to boost short duration funds, soften borrowing costs for firms

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
08 Feb 2020

A RAREST ROSE FOR YOUR SMILE AND EXTRAORDINARY FRAGRANCE OF LIFE. WISHING AN ECSTATIC DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 07 Feb 2020

 

China would halve additional tariffs levied against U.S. goods following the signing of a Phase 1 deal that defused a bruising trade war between the world's two largest economies. Mnuchin Says U.S. 2020 Growth to Be Less Than 3% Due to Boeing while China’s property market stalls amid coronavirus outbreak. Australia's central bank slashes near-term growth forecast, still upbeat on long term. Leaders of six major central banks undertaking joint research on digital currencies are considering holding their first meeting in mid-April in Washington while virus spread unnerves global central bankers. During the monetary policy review RBI holds rates and keeps door open for cuts in future estimating GDP to expand at 6% in FY21. It intends tighten supervision of co-operative banks and seeks to balance growth and inflation risks whereas India Inc reports Q3 revenue growth slowest in sixteen quarters.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  State leader at centre of German political crisis resigns

[I]  China’s property market stalls amid coronavirus outbreak

[I]  Mnuchin warns US growth may not hit 3% in 2020

[I]  India to tighten supervision of co-operative banks

[I]  Climate change fears put US gas utilities on defensive

[I]  Germany’s anti-far right taboo is under pressure

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI holds rates steady, seeks to balance growth and inflation risks

[I]  Japan PM Abe orders government to take steps vs virus impact on economy

[I]  Australia's central bank slashes near-term growth forecast, still upbeat on long term

[I]  Russia backs OPEC+ proposal to cut oil output: Lavrov

[I]  Japan household spending falls more than expected in December

[I]  Six central banks to hold digital currency meeting in April: Nikkei

[I]  China to halve tariffs on some U.S. imports as coronavirus risks grow

[I]  UK shops report biggest sales jump in six years - BDO

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Big Economic Reads: Virus Spread Unnerves Global Central Bankers

[I]  Carney Bequeaths Bailey a Mystery to Solve on U.K. Inflation

[I]  Drop in Borrowing Costs Shows India Shadow-Bank Crisis May Ease

[I]  Crude Extends Recovery on Optimism OPEC Will Respond to Virus

[I]  SEC’s ‘Crypto Mom’ Has Long-Shot Plan to Free Coins From Rules

[I]  Tougher Mortgage Rules Check Toronto Buyers, Not Surging Prices

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Mnuchin Says U.S. 2020 Growth to Be Less Than 3% Due to Boeing

[I]  Fed’s Quarles Calls Current Stance on Interest Rates Appropriate

[I]  China to Cut Tariffs on $75 Billion of U.S. Goods

[I]  Companies Find Ways to Bypass Tariffs on Chinese Imports

[I]  Public Transit Hits a Speed Bump: Not Enough Drivers

[I]  Coronavirus Ripple Effects Hit Production at Airbus, Hyundai

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI estimates GDP to expand at 6% in FY21

[I]  India Inc Q3 revenue growth slowest in sixteen quarters

[I]  Let out your house? You can still claim interest deduction under new tax regime

[I]  PM insists economy strong, no cause for despondence

[I]  India, China to hold talks on marine virus

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  RBI does its bit, the ball is back in govt's court to revive growth

[I]  Bankers' prescription for a $5 tn economy

[I]  500 in 5 yrs: Full steam ahead for pvt trains

[I]  Did foreigners read the Budget better?

[I]  Rabi crop outlook indicates record food grain production says NCML

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Monetary policy review: RBI holds rates, keeps door open for cuts in future

[I]  Monetary policy a breather for banks; easing CRR can improve margins

[I]  RBI policy: CPI-based inflation to GDP growth, key numbers at a glance

[I]  RBI's DPI to track reach of digitisation of payments in India by July

[I]  Monetary policy review: RBI extends helping hand to MSMEs, realtors

 

MARKETS (07:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12120;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3375;  DJIA Mini: 29292;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7435;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23832;  EUR-USD: 1.0983; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.24;  Gold (Spot): 1567

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
07 Feb 2020

LET US ALL BE A CARRIER OF CONTAGIOUS SMILE. WISHING A JOYFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 06 Feb 2020

 

The trade gap narrowed as Americans imported less from overseas and exports fell amid trade tariffs and slower global growth. The U.S. deficit in goods with China fell to its lowest level since 2014. Most of the growth was at small- and medium-size businesses and the service-providing sector drove most of the overall increase. The Treasury said it plans to issue new 20-year bonds each quarter, expanding its suite of products to fund projected growing federal budget deficits. Lawmakers Push for Changes in Credit-Ratings Industry. Bipartisan group of senators has asked the SEC why the agency failed to revamp the credit-ratings industry’s ‘issuer pay’ model, in which entities that sell bonds also pay for ratings. Spain’s central bank urges Madrid to stick with labour reform while Moscow to lift spending and stimulate growth and UK hopes for early free trade deal with Australia after leaving EU. India aims to double defence exports in five years amid resource crunch.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Coronavirus shakes centre of global tech supply chain

[I]  Chinese county ‘locked down’ over new coronavirus fears

[I]  Poll reveals public distrust for big tech’s digital money plans

[I]  EU’s fiscal rule book needs a rewrite, Brussels admits

[I]  US trade deficit shrinks for first time in six years

[I]  Spain’s central bank urges Madrid to stick with labour reform

[I]  Moscow to lift spending and stimulate growth

 

REUTERS

[I]  India aims to double defence exports in five years amid resource crunch

[I]  UK hopes for early free trade deal with Australia after leaving EU

[I]  Weak growth to pull down Indian rupee, coronavirus fears to impinge: Reuters poll

[I]  BOJ policymaker cautiously optimistic on global outlook despite virus worries 

[I]  India's pollution regulator threatens to shut 14 coal-fired power plants

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  OPEC+ Response to Virus Has Oil Rising Despite Stockpiles Build

[I]  Virus Forces Nomura to Rethink Bets on Low-Yielding Currencies

[I]  Brazil Caps Record-Breaking Easing Cycle With Final Rate Cut

[I]  Australia Says Economy to Take ‘Significant’ Hit From Virus

[I]  China’s Trade Likely Shrank in January Ahead of Holiday Shutdown

[I]  India’s Central Bank to Keep Focus on Inflation: Decision Guide

[I]  China’s $1.5 Trillion Pile of Bad Debt Attracts Foreign Funds

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Trade Deficit Narrows for First Time in Six Years

[I]  Trump Wants a Referendum on the Economy—and Sanders May Oblige

[I]  U.S. Private Sector Added 291,000 Jobs in January

[I]  Treasury Releases New Details on 20-Year Bond Plans

[I]  Coronavirus Ripple Effects Hit Production at Airbus, Hyundai

[I]  Lawmakers Push for Changes in Credit-Ratings Industry

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Hopeful of listing LIC in next fiscal: DEA Secretary

[I]  Electric vehicle penetration in India to remain below 5% till 2025: ICRA

[I]  Customs duty hike impacts imports worth $8.9-billion

[I]  Indo-US trade deal likely to be sealed during President Trump’s India visit

[I]  Finance Commission picks agri reforms for incentive to States

[I]  Weak economic growth drags credit health of Indian firms to 8-year low

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  A new inflation anchor will help RBI in aiding growth

[I]  PSUs owe Rs 2.65-Lakh cr AGR dues to DoT: MoS

[I]  Middle class people 'trained enough' to pick right Income Tax option: Rajiv Kumar

[I]  Fitch says Budget light on new structural reforms

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  15th Finance Commission to set up panel to examine fiscal, debt situation

[I]  GIPC's IP Index: India improves score, ranks 40th among 53 countries

[I]  Debt fund managers, traders to seek clarity from RBI on Operation Twist

[I]  To avoid PMC-like crises, Cabinet approves banking regulation amendment law

[I]  Why govt may have to lower its FY20 tax revenue target a second time

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12090;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3600;  DJIA Mini: 29291;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7482;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23803;  EUR-USD: 1.0998; Crude Oil (WTI): 51.84;  Gold (Spot): 1555

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
06 Feb 2020

SMILE ALONG WITH SPRINGING SMILES THIS SMILING SPRING. WISHING A CHEERFUL DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 05 Feb 2020

 

India is likely to issue at least $5 billion worth of bonds with no limits on foreign investment next year, in a bid to list the bonds on global indices and attract more foreign funds. India's gold imports in January plunged 48% from a year earlier to their lowest in 4 months. Top White House economic aide said he expected the fallout from the coronavirus to delay—but not derail—the economic boost the U.S. anticipated from the first phase of the trade deal with China. The Trump administration says it will allow companies to pursue tariffs against foreign competitors if they can show those rivals have benefited from currency manipulation in their countries. Thousands of companies have asked to be exempt from the U.S. tariffs placed on Chinese-made goods, but the approval rate has sunk to just 3% in the third round of levies, down from 35% previously.  Hong Kong’s economy contracted by 1.2% last year, as global trade turbulence and months of antigovernment protests pushed the city into its first annual recession since the depths of the global financial crisis. Singapore central bank says policy stance unchanged as virus hits economy, while BOJ signals readiness to ease as virus impact clouds outlook.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU and US carmakers warn over China parts shortage

[I]  Tech companies face German competition clampdown

[I]  Trump to tout blue-collar boom in State of the Union

[I]  EU opens way for members to halt enlargement talks

[I]  India’s latest budget looks short on business treats

[I]  Interdependence is a double-edged sword for the US and China

 

REUTERS

[I]  India may issue $5 billion of bonds next year with no foreign investment cap

[I]  China virus toll nears 500, airlines cut Hong Kong flights, cases found on cruise ship

[I]  Singapore central bank says policy stance unchanged as virus hits economy

[I]  BOJ signals readiness to ease as virus impact clouds outlook

[I]  Venezuela's inflation tumbles to 9,586% in 2019 - central bank

[I]  British boardrooms doing too little to end 'all-white domains', study finds

[I]  RBI seen holding rates, retaining dovish stance

[I]  India's Jan gold imports plunge 48% to four-month low on record prices

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Deaths Near 500; Cases Spread in Japan, Singapore: Virus Update

[I]  Dividend Yields in India May Climb on Tax Proposal, CLSA Says

[I]  Weak Growth Drags Credit Health of India Firms to 8-Year Low

[I]  Coronavirus Is Complicating Thailand’s Central Bank Rate Decision

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Crisis Could Delay U.S. Boost From Deal With China, Kudlow Says

[I]  New Rule Lets U.S. Companies Fight Currency Manipulation

[I]  Goldman Executive Exits After Barred From Banking Over 1MDB Scandal

[I]  Global Factory Revival in Doubt as Coronavirus Spreads

[I]  Trump Administration Denying More Tariff-Exemption Requests

[I]  Hong Kong Suffers First Annual Recession in a Decade

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  7,591 MW RE capacity in Apr-Dec

[I]  DRI, Commerce Dept to check FTA misuse, protect genuine players

[I]  Recruiters indicate positive hiring outlook for H1 2020: Survey

[I]  India keen to keep future FTAs with RCEP nations less ambitious

[I]  Operation Greens: Six additional proposals under consideration, says Ministry of Food Processing

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Taxing allowances: EC may ask govt to reconsider

[I]  NBFC quits infrastructure, blaming ‘socialist’ India

[I]  Commerce ministry preparing district export plan to boost shipments

[I]  Nominal GDP growth projections ambitious given structural challenges: Moody's

[I]  TDS on MF dividends at 10%, clarifies government

[I]  Government ready with e-bidding platform for disinvestment

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Ball is now in your court: FM Sitharaman exhorts India Inc to invest more

[I]  70 models to be unveiled as tech takes centre stage at Auto Expo 2020

[I]  From auto to insurance, brands track the men on the FM radio trail

[I]  Stress in wholesale book of NBFCs to rise further, says CRISIL report

[I]  New taxation rules to hit dividends received from foreign subsidiaries

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11961;  USDINR DGCX: 71.3575;  DJIA Mini: 28749;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7353;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23357;  EUR-USD: 1.1034; Crude Oil (WTI): 50.17;  Gold (Spot): 1557

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
05 Feb 2020