LETS SMILE AND SPREAD THE HAPPINESS TO EVERYONE AROUND. WISHING A BLISSFUL WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 10 Aug 2019

 

The RBI will cut interest rates again at its October meeting, making it the fifth in a row, according to economists in a Reuters poll. Indian farmers have planted 87 million hectares with summer-sown crops so far, farm ministry data showed, down 5.3% from last year, narrowing the sowing gap as monsoon rains picked up from the previous week. India's industrial output grew 2% in June from a year earlier. U.S. President Donald Trump said that he was not ready to make a trade deal with China and raised the possibility that trade talks with China could break off again. The British economy unexpectedly contracted in the second quarter as uncertainty over the country’s planned departure from the European Union on Oct.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  UK economy shrinks for first time in almost 7 years

[I]  Italy PM faces confidence vote as fresh elections loom

[I]  Volatile inflation data reflect Germans’ love of package holidays

[I]  Recession fears grow as Berlin digests week of poor data

[I]  Japan GDP growth beats forecasts in second quarter

[I]  French industrial production drops sharply in June

[I]  Weaker demand weighs on China producer prices

[I]  Turkey records annual current account surplus

 

REUTERS

[I]  Timeline: Key dates in the U.S.-China trade war

[I]  IMF stands by yuan view; says China could need stimulus if trade war worsens

[I]  India's summer crop planting down 5.3% from last year, gap narrows

[I]  India's June industrial output grows 2%, beats forecast

[I]  Trump says U.S., China still talking on trade but not ready for a deal

[I]  Top Indian automakers plan production cuts amid industry crisis

[I]  RBI not done with easing, to cut in October and early next year: Reuters poll

[I]  No-deal Brexit preparation is top priority, UK's Johnson tells officials

[I]  Brexit hazard warning lights: UK economy contracts for first time since 2012

[I]  Trump says U.S. economy 'handcuffed' by Fed, wants further rate cut

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  IMF Says China Should Keep Yuan Flexible as Trade War Widens

[I]  Trade Wars, Currency Wars and Mutually Assured Destruction

[I]  London Blackout Blamed on Drop in Wind and Natural-Gas Power

[I]  Mortgage Investors Flock to Specified Pools as Rates Drop

[I]  Venezuela’s Importing the Most Fuel Since U.S. Sanctions Started

[I]  Italian Political Turmoil Provides a Reminder of Economic Woes

[I]  Economists Still See Canada Bucking Global Rate-Cutting Trend

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump Casts Doubt on Next Round of China Talks

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Battle Is Crimping Global Oil Demand

[I]  U.K. Economy Shrinks for First Time Since 2012 as Brexit Worries Take Toll

[I]  China’s Factory-Gate Prices Slip Into Deflation

[I]  Canada Jobless Rate Increase Fuels Rate Cut Talk

[I]  Economists Upgrade U.S.-China Trade Conflict to ‘War’

[I]  Real Time Economics: College Gets Riskier, Recession Odds Climb

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Why labour shortage not pinching textile mills now

[I]  Industry growth slows to 4-month low of 2 per cent in June

[I]  Automakers cut production to align with tapering market demand

[I]  Pension scheme for small and marginal farmers launched

[I]  India in US list of major illegal drug producing, transit countries

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  3 things India can do to beat the economic slowdown blues

[I]  'India needs to increase women workforce to 48%'

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $697 million to $428.95 billion

[I]  China sets Yuan fixing stronger than expected, soothes nerves

[I]  Centre starts registration for Pradhan Mantri Kisan Maan-Dhan Yojana

[I]  Government launches new GDP series to align with global method

[I]  IBC: SC upholds homebuyers’ rights as financial creditors

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Govt may soon take a decision on tweaking FPI surcharge proposal

[I]  Public sector banks volunteer to link their lending rates to repo

[I]  Developers brace for another storm as SC gives relief to homebuyers

[I]  India's corporate profits one of the lowest among major economies

[I]  Govt must raise expenditure on infra, focus on rural income: Experts

[I]  Kharif sowing to be normal, says govt; monsoon level 1% below average

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

10 Aug 2019

HAPPINESS IS WITHIN US; SOMETIMES ITS ON FRIDAY TOO. WISHING A HILARIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 09 Aug 2019

 

Economists Upgrade U.S.-China Trade Conflict to ‘War’. Economists’ expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate cut rose sharply this month, along with their expectations for a recession in the next year. Falling bond yields are reviving the U.S. mortgage market at current rates, which are at their lowest level in almost three years. The Japanese economy grew at a faster pace than expected in the April-June quarter. Chinese exports rebounded in July, buoyed by increased shipments to Europe and Southeast Asia, but economists expect the turnaround to be short-lived. Philippines cuts rate again as growth hits 4-year low. Australia central bank governor says zero rate unlikely but possible.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  UN warns of rising air temperatures over land

[I]  Portugal lures foreigners with tax breaks and anti-populist stance

[I]  Ethiopia takes first step to liberalising finance

[I]  Chinese exports rise in July despite trade war

[I]  Philippines cuts rate again as growth hits 4-year low

[I]  Investors move into automated homebuying market

[I]  Time for Japan to test radical forms of stimulus

 

REUTERS

[I]  India may exempt foreign portfolio investors from higher taxes: sources

[I]  Australia economy may be at turning point, rates to stay low: RBA

[I]  Australia central bank governor says zero rate unlikely but possible

[I]  China continued Iran oil imports in July in teeth of U.S. sanctions: analysts

[I]  Indian auto parts maker braces for plant shutdowns amid industry-wide crisis

[I]  U.S. labour market strong; Q2 GDP growth expected to be revised down

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump's Assault Blunts China's Yuan Tool as Economy Slows

[I]  ‘Fearful’ Investors Are Reluctant to Sound All-Clear on U.S. Stocks

[I]  The Non-Weirdness of Negative Interest Rates

[I]  Investors Fleeing Negative Yields Fuel Private Debt Cash-Pile

[I]  Booming Travel Is Transforming Asian Airports Into Mini-Cities

[I]  China's Producer Price Index Contracts for First Time Since 2016

[I]  Investors Balk at Ultra-Low Yield in Treasury’s 30-Year Sale

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economists Upgrade U.S.-China Trade Conflict to ‘War’

[I]  Economists See Greater Chance of September Rate Cut: WSJ Survey

[I]  Homeowners Rush to Refinance, Thanks to Falling Yields

[I]  Japan Posts Solid Growth in the Second Quarter

[I]  China Exports Stage Surprising Turnaround

[I]  Where the U.S.-China Trade Dispute Goes From Here

[I]  Real Time Economics: Fed Fights Headwinds, More Mixed Signals for Investors

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India Inc seeks Rs 1 lakh cr stimulus package to kick-start investment cycle, revive growth

[I]  50 districts out of 600 account for half of all crop-cover claims: Official

[I]  Deep depression weakens but heavy rains to stay

[I]  Angel tax: CBDT comes out with assessment process for start-ups

[I]  Consumers’ confidence falls in July: RBI survey

[I]  Watershed programme key to develop degraded and rain-fed areas: Official

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Finally, LTGC tax relief is around the corner

[I]  Rs 3 trillion of capital infusion only helped PSBs trim losses, not drive credit supply: India Ratings

[I]  Nearly half of Indians open to taking loan for improving lifestyle: Survey

[I]  CBDT raises limit for appeals to reduce litigations

[I]  Government likely to withdraw higher surcharge for FPIs

[I]  Industry 4.0: Making India smart and intelligent manufacturing hub

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Income Tax dept relaxes assessment and scrutiny norms for start-ups

[I]  RBI's Usha Thorat panel for easier foreign play in currency market

[I]  No jail for CSR violation: FM Nirmala Sitharaman to business leaders

[I]  Centre to raise tariff barriers on imported solar and wind equipment

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11064;  USDINR DGCX: 70.6725;  DJIA Mini: 26254;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7227;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20680;  EUR-USD: 1.1195; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.44;  Gold (Spot): 1507

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
09 Aug 2019

TODAY IS THE DAY I FEEL, FRIDAY IS NEXT. WISHING A DELIBERATE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 08 Aug 2019

 

Repo rate at nine-year low after RBI announces first-ever cut of 35 bps. Central bank unveils a slew of measures to boost consumer credit. India's retail inflation rose for the sixth straight month in July - the longest stretch of monthly increases since January 2016 - to a nine-month high, largely due to a continued rise in food prices, a Reuters poll predicted. India is set to relax rules for setting up fuel stations after almost two decades, in a move expected to allow companies like Saudi Aramco, Total and Trafigura to gain a foothold in a sector dominated by state-run entities. Three central banks in the Asia-Pacific region lowered interest rates in a surprisingly aggressive fashion as the fallout from the U.S.-China trade war intensified, suggesting the global rate-cut cycle will gather steam in the months ahead.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US stocks fight back amid mounting economic gloom

[I]  Indian central bank battles global slowdown with rate cut

[I]  UK accountancy firms prepare to cull risky clients

[I]  S Koreans vent anger with boycott of Japanese goods

[I]  German industrial output fall heightens fears of recession

[I]  China’s economy faces currency devaluation drag

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI makes unconventional rate cut in bid to spur growth

[I]  Indian auto executives seek tax cuts, easier finance access to revive sales: sources

[I]  New Zealand could cut rates again, won't rule out negative rates - central bank assistant governor

[I]  Yen stands tall on global growth fears, central bank easing weighs on peers

[I]  India to relax rules for entry into fuel retail sector: source

[I]  Column: Global economy is probably in recession

[I]  Trump Takes Grievances On Road in Visits to Shooting Survivors

[I]  WhatsApp Flaws Could Allow Hackers to Alter Messages: Cyber Firm

[I]  Short Bonds Shine in India as RBI Damps Hope of Excessive Easing

[I]  McConnell Campaign Twitter Account Locked for Posting Protester Threats

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Philippine Economic Growth Unexpectedly Slows to 5.5%

[I]  Short Bonds Shine in India as RBI Damps Hope of Excessive Easing

[I]  Rock-Star Economies Flop, World Recession Fears Rise: Eco Day

[I]  Sellers of U.K. Luxury Homes Forced to Bargain Amid Brexit Woes

[I]  The Furious Global Bond Market Rally Shows Few Signs of Abating

[I]  RBA Says Australia's Big Retailers Can Cope With a Weaker Economy

[I]  Japanese Consumers Help Prop Up Economy During Export Slump

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed’s Evans Says Trade Headwinds Could Justify Additional Rate Cuts

[I]  Inflated Bond Ratings Helped Spur the Financial Crisis. They’re Back.

[I]  Where the U.S.-China Trade Dispute Goes From Here

[I]  More Workers Would Qualify for Overtime Pay Under State Proposals

[I]  Behind Yuan Move, China Concedes Its Economy Needs a Boost

[I]  Trio of Central Banks Surprise Markets With Aggressive Rate Cuts

[I]  Real Time Economics: U.S. and China Dig In, Central Banks Slash Rates

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Taking a ‘balanced call’, RBI trims rate by 35 bps

[I]  Auto industry to FM: Bring down GST, raise depreciation rate

[I]  Oilmeal exports drop 23% in July lead by sharp fall in soybean meal consignments

[I]  Loans to agri sector see sharp rise in NPAs

[I]  Oil sets new seven-month low on trade tensions

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Recession is coming, courtesy trade war

[I]  Coming soon: The great sarkari sale

[I]  How central bank's rate cut will affect you

[I]  3.5 lakh jobs gone: Auto slump hits where it hurts

[I]  RBI cuts risk weight on consumer credit to 100%, credit cards

[I]  Monsoon rains above-average for 2nd straight week: IMD

[I]  RBI will have to do more heavy-lifting for economy to even clip at 6.9%: Analysts

[I]  RBI Governor explains why MPC went for an 'unprecedented' 35 bps rate cut

[I]  Rs 11 lakh crore tax arrears difficult to recover: CAG

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  NBFCs to receive more liquidity support as RBI raises exposure limit

[I]  Govt looks at eliminating FDI security gaps through scrutiny measures

[I]  Repo rate at nine-year low after RBI announces first-ever cut of 35 bps

[I]  24x7 fund transfers under NEFT from Dec 2019 to boost digital payments

[I]  Consumers turn gloomy about economic situation, employment: RBI survey

[I]  In policy making, you have to take a call beyond numbers: Shakitkanta Das

[I]  Economic slowdown impact: Over 20 IPOs stare at SEBI approval lapses

[I]  World closer to first recession in a decade as trade war fears spread

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10859;  USDINR DGCX: 71.1950;  DJIA Mini: 25963;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7168;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 20520;  EUR-USD: 1.1210; Crude Oil (WTI): 52.59;  Gold (Spot): 1500

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

08 Aug 2019