THE ELEGANCE OF INVISIBLE FAITH AND PRAYERS ARE AWESOMELY ATTRACTIVE. WISHING A GORGEOUS WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 18 Apr 2020

World is wondrously wafting from moral hazard of economics to economics of moral hazards in a quest to come out of global disarray of almost everything. This is unique occasion for economic enthusiasts to witness the inability of almost all economics theories – from Marx to Mill to Malthus to Milton and even Keynes including neoclassicals – seem to be collapsing while demand is dangerously drifting downward and almost everyone is at the level of self-defined level of ‘Self-Actualisation’ and swivelling between ‘Material Realm’ and ‘Spiritual-Realm’. The economists have now been arguing that governments should spend whatever it takes and some opine to embrace even massive deficits. World Bank, IMF face growing calls to widen debt relief for poor nations and Emerging economies call for more financial help after G20 deal at the same time Argentina could face a ninth default as coronavirus throws global economy into disarray. The FED officials say that even a swift resolution to the coronavirus pandemic is unlikely to bring a fast recovery to the U.S. economy and a Wall Street Journal examination of recent labor-market data finds undercurrents of the pain and some reasons for hope. Although, state-run program that helps businesses cut costs while retaining staff is becoming an increasingly common strategy to fight the economic toll while more than half a million companies reported to be in ‘significant distress’.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Argentina debt restructuring offer leaves investors cold 

[I]  Crops at risk as coronavirus lockdown grounds bees

[I]  Carmakers gear up for getting back to work

[I]  Top of Form

Fed’s junk bond purchases should be short-term

[I]  Crisis-fighting measures need to be transparent and unwound quickly

[I]  Top of Form

China’s economy shrinks for first time in four decades

[I]  Emerging economies call for more financial help after G20 deal

[I]  More than half a million companies reported to be in ‘significant distress’

[I]  Top of Form

EU trade chief urges tougher defences against foreign takeovers

REUTERS

[I]  RBI surprises with reverse repo rate cut in bid to spur bank lending

[I]  India's automakers seek tax cut to boost demand after coronavirus hit

[I]  Lockdown cuts India's fuel demand 50% in first half of April

[I]  IMF, World Bank disburse funds to help countries battle pandemic

[I]  U.S. announces $19 billion coronavirus aid for farmers, food buys for poor

[I]  Cash is king as U.S. quarterly reporting season gains steam

[I]  Developing countries unlock key industries to safeguard earnings and jobs

[I]  World Bank, IMF face growing calls to widen debt relief for poor nations

[I]  Explainer: Argentina's $323 billion debt conundrum

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Slows Pace of Treasury Buying Under Its QE Program

[I]  Texas Eases Rules; California Forms Task Force: Virus Update

[I]  Loans Averaged $206,000 in Small Businesses Fund That Ran Out

[I]  Argentina Debt Offer Delays Most Principal Until Next Decade

[I]  Saudis Set to Sell 600,000 Barrels a Day of Oil to U.S. in April

[I]  Fed Says It Will Disclose Borrower Information in Crisis Lending

[I]  Giant U.S. Lenders Outpaced by Rivals in Small-Business Rescue

[I]  Mexico Downgraded to Baa1 by Moody’s on Weak Growth Outlook

[I]  Uranium Surges 31% Amid Shutdowns to Become Year’s Top Commodity

[I]  India Central Bank Buys Bonds in Secondary Market to Cool Yields

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  The Year Tax Day Turned Upside Down

[I]  China’s First-Quarter GDP Plunges on Coronavirus

[I]  New York Fed’s Williams Says Recovery Unlikely to Be Swift

[I]  Pandemic Makes U.S.-China Economic Breakup More Likely, U.S. Businesses in China Say

[I]  Sizing Up the Coronavirus’s Hit to the Job Market

[I]  Trump’s Guidelines to Reopen Economy Put Onus on States

[I]  Newsletter: China’s Economy Contracts, Foreshadows Pain to Come

[I]  Layoff Alternative Grows in Popularity During Coronavirus

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Consumers to spend less on discretionary items: Nielsen India

[I]  Exporters say RBI steps to help small units, but bigger revival package needed

[I]  Retailers, e-commerce platforms turn to private label brands to plug gaps in supply chains

[I]  Refund for flyers of flights cancelled due to lockdown

[I]  NHAI to resume toll collection from April 20

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Relief for realty could soon become a reality

[I]  How India's post-virus recovery will shape up

[I]  Forex reserves up nearly $2 billion to $476.5 billion: Shaktikanta Das

[I]  Centre to hike MSP for minor forest produce by 16-30%

[I]  RBI pumps Rs 1.2 lakh crore fresh currency into system

[I]  Direct Tax department sets target of Rs 13.19 lakh crore for FY21

[I]  Centre pushes for economic ramp-up after April 20

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  IBA to discuss the issue of giving a moratorium to NBFCs on Saturday

[I]  RBI steps increase lending, but sector-specific package must: Bankers

[I]  In fight against economic slowdown, RBI introduces new measures

[I]  Indian IT firms set to defer annual wage hike plans, but say 'no layoffs'

[I]  RBI assumes protective role, asks banks not to pay dividend for FY20

[I]  RBI gives NBFCs more time to restructure commercial real estate loans

Best Regards, ARBIND

18 Apr 2020

THIS MOMENT IS MAKING A BEAUTIFUL MEMORY FOR LIFE. WISHING AN EXQUISITE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 17 Apr 2020

Trump unveils three-stage process for states to end coronavirus shutdown whereas Britain extended its nationwide lockdown and ordered Britons to stay at home for at least another three weeks. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is under growing pressure from industry officials and members of Congress to ease strains on mortgage companies as millions of borrowers skip their monthly payments. The stimulus package passed last month to mitigate the economic devastation wrought by the novel coronavirus pandemic will add $1.76 trillion to federal budget deficits over the coming decade. While American jobless claims mount to 22m since shutdowns, Macron warns of EU unravelling without financial solidarity. India's gold consumption in 2020 could fall as much as 50% from a year ago to the lowest level in nearly three decades. SBI report finds economic growth falling to 1.1 per cent this fiscal while workers face income loss of Rs 4 lakh crore due to lockdown although start-ups standing tall during tough times for job seekers. Real estate sentiment hits all-time low while India Inc grapples with rising rating downgrades although bumper wheat harvest helps rabi output touch 150 mt this year.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Macron warns of EU unravelling without financial solidarity

[I]  American jobless claims mount to 22m since shutdowns

[I]  Shell steps up climate goals despite twin crises

[I]  Mnuchin defends opposition to emerging markets liquidity plan

[I]  Britain’s open borders make it a global outlier in coronavirus fight

[I]  Japan to give every citizen one-off sum of ¥100,000

[I]  Asia’s growth to grind to halt for first time in 60 years, warns IMF

[I]  US small business rescue fund runs out of cash

REUTERS

[I]  Trump unveils three-stage process for states to end coronavirus shutdown

[I]  India says IMF liquidity boost may have costly side effects

[I]  China's first quarter GDP posts first decline on record as virus shuts down economy

[I]  IMF sees 'lost decade' of no growth in Latin America due to pandemic

[I]  UK extends lockdown measures for at least three more weeks

[I]  Most U.S. firms have no plans to leave China due to coronavirus: survey

[I]  German carmakers to resume production as lockdowns ease

[I]  IMF gets $11.7 billion in pledges to aid poor countries

[I]  Pandemic to bring Asia's 2020 growth to halt for first time in 60 years - IMF

[I]  Indian gold demand could hit three-decade low as lockdown hits festivals, weddings

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Oil Closes Under $20 for Second Day Amid Historic Demand Loss

[I]  Small-Business Rescue Shows Not All States Are Created Equal

[I]  Japan Scrambles to Give $926 to Everyone in Nationwide Emergency

[I]  Silence From RBI Worries Traders Ahead of Bigger India Debt Sale

[I]  Saudi Arabia, Russia Hint at Further Action to Stem Oil’s Plunge

[I]  Argentina, a Serial Defaulter, Makes Opening Move in Debt Talks

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Sizing Up the Coronavirus’s Hit to the Job Market

[I]  China’s First-Quarter GDP Plunges on Coronavirus

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Top 20 Million Since Start of Shutdowns

[I]  Shoes to Masks: Corporate Innovation Flourishes in Coronavirus Fight

[I]  Mnuchin Under Growing Pressure to Help Struggling Mortgage Companies

[I]  Fintechs Said They Could Lend to Small Businesses Fast. It Hasn’t Been Easy.

[I]  Stimulus to Add Nearly $1.8 Trillion to U.S. Budget Deficit Over Decade

[I]  Fed’s Williams Cites Improved Markets, Prospect of Extended Fed Economic Support

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Workers face income loss of Rs 4.05 lakh crore due to lockdown, SBI report

[I]  Start-ups standing tall during tough times for job seekers

[I]  Companies hiring amidst the pandemic blow

[I]  Bumper wheat harvest helps rabi output touch 150 mt this year

[I]  Govt sets foodgrain production target at 298 million tonnes for 2020-21 crop year

[I]  Defining green activities – What the new EU rules mean for India

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Stop coronavirus or save economy? India can actually do both

[I]  Centre to hike MSP for forest produce by 16-30%

[I]  India won't be the same again post Covid

[I]  IMF needs to maintain global financial stability: FM

[I]  Dollar stands tall as US retail slump fans flight to safety

[I]  Overseas bonds of Indian cos now a bargain buy

[I]  Economic growth may fall to 1.1 per cent this fiscal: SBI report

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Covid-19 impact: Stimulus 2.0 ready as PM Modi, FM Sitharaman hold meeting

[I]  Mutual funds likely to get Sebi lifeline to tide over liquidity woes

[I]  Insurance firms looks to bridge online trust deficit amid Covid--19 crisis

[I]  Lockdown 2.0: E-tailers can sell non-essentials on state nod from April 20

[I]  India Inc grapples with rising rating downgrades, revisions in outlook

[I]  Real estate sentiment hits all-time low in March quarter

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9260;  USDINR DGCX: 77.0425;  DJIA Mini: 24266;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5778;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 19790;  EUR-USD: 1.0873; Crude Oil (WTI): 19.90;  Gold (Spot): 1711

Best Regards, ARBIND

17 Apr 2020

FEEL HIGH ALONG WITH THE HAPPENING AROUND US. WISHING A GRAND DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 16 Apr 2020

India will allow industries located in the countryside to reopen next week, as well as resuming farm activities to reduce the pain for millions of people hit by a lengthy shutdown in its coronavirus battle. Intensifying debate over when to reopen the economy has left the impression that economists and epidemiologists are at odds; but they aren’t. US industrial production output to plunge at the steepest rate in more than 70 years. Coronavirus fight Is creating mountains of global debt as emergency efforts totaling nearly $8 trillion in spending, loans and guarantees could pose a threat after the pandemic eases, the International Monetary Fund said in a report. IMF also sees Asia Pacific economic growth at standstill in 2020. Low-income countries got the green light to suspend debt payments to other governments, making more money available to fight the coronavirus pandemic and stabilize their economies as G20 agrees debt relief for low income nations.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US allies line up to condemn Trump’s WHO funding freeze

[I]  Biggest Wall Street banks set aside $25bn for loan losses

[I]  India to relax some lockdown restrictions

[I]  Europe’s trade unions wary of fallout from coronavirus

[I]  Governments face ‘massive’ rise in public debt, IMF warns

[I]  G20 agrees debt relief for low income nations 

[I]  US confident of ‘fundamental shift’ in oil politics

[I]  EU bars bailed-out companies from paying dividends and bonuses

[I]  US holds off on IMF plan to boost emerging economies

REUTERS

[I]  India, Pakistan seek to lift some curbs to help millions hit by coronavirus lockdowns

[I]  India permits resumption of some industries in rural areas from April 20

[I]  India March exports shrink, outlook grim as coronavirus hits demand

[I]  Japan's Abe leans toward blanket cash payouts to fight coronavirus downturn

[I]  Japan urges citizens to isolate as reports warn of 400,000 deaths

[I]  UK virus outbreak "probably" peaking, but too soon to ease lockdown

[I]  Japan business mood slumps to decade low on coronavirus hit - Reuters Tankan

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  IMF Sees Asia Pacific Economic Growth at Standstill in 2020

[I]  China’s Historic Slump to Lay Bare the Scale of the Task Ahead

[I]  Russia’s Oil Pain Deepens as OPEC+ Prepares to Cut Output

[I]  U.S. Stock Futures Extend Loss Following Gloomy Economic Data

[I]  Australian Employment Holds Up for Now as Virus Blow Looms

[I]  South Korea Plans Emergency Handouts to Households Hit by Virus

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economics vs. Epidemiology: Quantifying the Trade-Off

[I]  Swaths of U.S. Economy Froze in March

[I]  U.S. Economy ‘Contracted Sharply and Abruptly,’ Fed’s Beige Book Says

[I]  Coronavirus Fight Is Creating Mountains of Global Debt

[I]  Small-Business Aid Funds Nearly Exhausted

[I]  Where the Stimulus Loans for Small Businesses Are Going

[I]  Low-Income Nations Get Go-Ahead to Suspend Debt Payments

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Exports plummet 34% in March

[I]  Employers get one month’s time to deposit their share in EPF

[I]  India’s proposal on subsidies for poor fishermen awaits WTO response

[I]  Bengal orders re-opening of jute mills, but with riders

[I]  Farming, allied activities to resume on April 20

[I]  WPI Inflation down to 1%

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India is ready with second round of stimulus

[I]  Arvind Subramanian on what's next for India

[I]  FPI investment limit on govt papers remain unchanged: RBI

[I]  RBI to conduct fourth LTRO for Rs 25,000 crore on April 17

[I]  Wheat procurement kicks off, government gears up for kharif

[I]  India Inc's overseas investment rises marginally to $2.7 billion in March

[I]  Construction contracts plunge 43 percent in FY20: Report

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Exports fall at fastest pace in 25 years in March amid Covid-19 outbreak

[I]  RBI, Sebi split over default recognition; MFs, rating agencies seek clarity

[I]  'Normal' monsoon forecast by IMD brings relief from coronavirus heat

[I]  Domestic airlines gear up for May 4 resumption; to adopt social distancing

[I]  E-commerce firms seek clarity on non-essentials; gear up for MHA guidelines

[I]  India's economy may see first contraction in 40 years on lockdown extension

[I]  India agriculture output lone bright spot in an economy set to shrink

MARKETS (10:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8951;  USDINR DGCX: 76.9325;  DJIA Mini: 23320;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5570;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 19260;  EUR-USD: 1.0875; Crude Oil (WTI): 19.99;  Gold (Spot): 1714

Best Regards, ARBIND

16 Apr 2020