INNER PEACE AND INNER JOURNEY IS THE INNATE ESSENTIALS. WISHING A CALMING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 21 Mar 2020

Finland’s residents enjoy a high quality of life, security and public services, with rates of inequality and poverty among the lowest of all OECD countries. The U.S. Federal Reserve continued to roll out emergency support as it enhanced efforts with other major central banks to ease a global dollar-funding crunch. The Trump administration said it was soliciting public comments on lifting additional tariffs on Chinese imports that could help the United States battle the pandemic, showing some flexibility in its trade war against Beijing. Shutdowns across the country are hurting low-wage workers, many of whom live paycheck to paycheck. Their jobs often require personal contact, such as running a cash register or cleaning hotel rooms, and are the most vulnerable to the employment and pay cuts cascading through the economy. States respond to a surge in jobless claims and some are easing requirements to help more people. Russia holds rates to protect rouble despite virus slowdown while US orders Stay-at-home in major states to deal with the crisis. Central Banks announce coordinated action to enhance Swap lines. India is calling for "resolve and restraint" to fight the pandemic whereas Maharashtra CM orders closure of workplaces from midnight tonight till March 31 and UP CM tweets that Rs 1000 each will be given to 15 lakh daily wage labourers and 20.37 lakh construction workers to help them meet their daily needs. India Inc rules out cut in jobs and salaries amid coronavirus while Government advises companies to implement 'work from home' policy.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  New restrictions set for London venues to counter coronavirus

[I]  Sunak to launch massive rescue package for stricken UK companies

[I]  UK food suppliers battle to fill the empty shelves

[I]  Investment veterans try to get to grips with ‘broken’ markets

[I]  Freelancers fight for support through coronavirus crisis

[I]  Coronavirus fears hit UK property market as viewings dry up

[I]  Focus on blanket EM debt default risk may be misplaced

[I]  Russia holds rates to protect rouble despite virus slowdown

REUTERS

[I]  Stay-at-home orders in major states mark next phase of U.S. coronavirus crisis

[I]  Indian banks seek more time over bad loan classification

[I]  U.S. seeks comments on tariff cuts for Chinese imports to aid coronavirus battle

[I]  U.S. airlines call for payroll protections as aid talks continue

[I]  Downgrade doom looms for coronavirus-hit firms and markets

[I]  Fed announces more emergency moves to stem dollar, liquidity strains

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Markets Diary of a Crisis: Inside Wall Street’s Most Volatile Ever Week

[I]  Oil Suffers Biggest Weekly Loss Since 1991 With Demand in Focus

[I]  U.S. Junk Bonds Enter Distress, Spreads Top 1,000 Basis Points

[I]  Rejected Venezuela Returns to IMF Seeking $1 Billion in Aid

[I]  These Five Warning Signs Highlight Virus’s Rapid Economic Impact

[I]  Leveraged-Loan Stress Prompts U.S. to Discuss Ways to Ease Pain

[I]  Fed Already About Halfway Through Bond-Buying Announced Sunday

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  ‘I Have Bills I Have to Pay.’ Low-Wage Workers Face Brunt of Virus Crisis.

[I]  Out of a Job? What to Know About Getting Unemployment Benefits

[I]  Lessons for the Coronavirus Crisis From Six Other Disasters

[I]  Fed Adjusts Money-Market Lending Facility to Include Municipal Debt

[I]  U.S. Extends Individual Tax Filing Deadline to July 15

[I]  IRS Rejects Congressman’s Argument That Trump Emergency Declaration Suspends Tax Payments

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  To tackle volatility, SEBI curbs short-selling in equity derivatives

[I]  As virus spreads rapidly, insurers launch affordable health policies

[I]  Amid bear’s roar, are you listening to these silent voices?

[I]  Centre, RBI must take adequate measures to prevent rupee volatility

[I]  How to get women into C-suite jobs

[I]  A wall of bond supply to fight virus is roiling debt markets

[I]  OMO: Reserve Bank to infuse ₹30,000-crore liquidity

[I]  Finland is world’s happiest country

[I]  Maharashtra CM orders closure of workplaces from midnight tonight till March 31

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Why India needs a stimulus package quickly

[I]  Forex reserve falls by $5.3 billion in a week

[I]  Govt allows pharma formulations exports under export-linked scheme

[I]  Coronavirus impact: Over 50% of India Inc sees impact on ops, 80% witness fall in cash flow

[I]  Government advises companies to implement 'work from home' policy

[I]  Coronavirus: Centre relaxes leave rules for staff over 50 years

[I]  India Inc suggests measures for the impact of Covid-19

[I]  101 Special Economic Zones de-notified between April 2008 and Feb 2020: Govt

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI's coronavirus contingency plan: Keep it going from a secret location

[I]  India Inc rules out cut in jobs and salaries amid coronavirus outbreak

[I]  Sebi unveils measures to tackle market volatility, curbs short selling

[I]  Airlines may ground 68% planes amid coronavirus outbreak, says govt

[I]  Cabinet passes a policy to promote manufacture and growth of bulk drugs

[I]  Maharashtra in partial lock down; shops & offices in Mumbai, Pune shut

Best Regards, ARBIND

21 Mar 2020

TRUST IS LIKE WATER; LIFE IS TO BE WITH IT, FLOW WITH IT. WISHING A SPIRITED DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 20 Mar 2020

U.S crude oil prices edged higher, extending gains after a 24% jump the previous day, buoyed by hints from U.S. President Donald Trump he may intervene in the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia at an "appropriate time." The Federal Reserve is likely to significantly boost its government-bond purchases beyond the $500 billion minimum it committed Sunday to buy amid market strains that sent interest rates higher in recent days. The BOE cut its benchmark interest rate to a record low and said it would buy $232 billion of U.K. government bonds, in the latest push by a major central bank to combat the economic damage from the coronavirus. Italy’s PM urges Brussels to unleash €500bn rescue fund while China reports no new cases of local transmission for first time. US oil companies race to restructure debt while China keeps lending benchmark unchanged but stimulus needed as virus hit worsens. Virus-hit India mulls easier loan and tax rules while cash dash has dollar set for best week since 2008 crisis and Indian Rupee breaches 75 as FPIs dump stocks on redemptions. India Inc seeks stimulus to tackle coronavirus and Government considers tax compliance breather.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Italy’s PM urges Brussels to unleash €500bn rescue fund

[I]  US set to be inundated with jobless claims

[I]  Top ECB officials divided over Lagarde’s bond-buying plan

[I]  China reports no new cases of local transmission for first time

[I]  US oil companies race to restructure debt

[I]  ECB and Bank of England deploy their big bazookas

REUTERS

[I]  India to halt international flights; Modi urges citizens to stay home as virus spreads

[I]  IMF expedites U.S. Treasury official's appointment to No. 2 job

[I]  Asia shares bounce after rout, rush for dollars causing stress

[I]  China keeps lending benchmark unchanged but stimulus needed as virus hit worsens 

[I]  POLL: Global economy already in recession on virus devastation

[I]  U.S. crude climbs after White House comments on Saudi-Russia dispute

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Five Days When World Economy’s Guardians Fought Virus and Market Turmoil

[I]  India Fund Managers Hunt for Spreads, Liquidity Amid Credit Woes

[I]  The Idea of Negative Oil Prices Is More Realistic Than You Think

[I]  ‘Warp Speed Stimulus,’ Market Crunch, Merkel Powers: Eco Day

[I]  Oil Extends Record Gain in Wild Week as Trump Wades Into Tussle

[I]  Philippine Stocks Veterans See More Pain After Record Plunge

[I]  High-Grade Bond-Fund Outflows Hit $35.6 Billion, Smashing Record

[I]  Lagarde Says ECB Will Explore All Options to Support Economy

[I]  New Zealand Moves to Soothe Market Tensions With Term Loans to Banks

[I]  Distressed Debt in U.S. Doubles to $500 Billion in Two Weeks

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Ramps Up Bond Buys, Indicating Much Larger Purchases Are Likely

[I]  IMF Approves Top Mnuchin Ally, Geoffrey Okamoto, as No. 2 Official

[I]  Jobless Claims Rise Sharply

[I]  McConnell Unveils GOP Stimulus Plan Amid Coronavirus Crisis

[I]  Bank of England Cuts Rates Further, Restarts Bond Purchases

[I]  Coronavirus Hits State and City Budgets

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Uncertainty looms as jewellers down shutters amid coronavirus scare

[I]  Covid-19: Crisil cuts GDP growth forecast to 5.2% for 2020-21

[I]  Don’t lay off employees: CII tells member companies

[I]  Maharashtra: After coronavirus, rain and hailstorms destroy rabi crops

[I]  Centre prohibits export of all ventilators, surgical masks, raw material

[I]  Savings in cost, reliable supply to boost rooftop solar power

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Hikes, bonuses put on quarantine as IT firms prepare for slump

[I]  India is changing rules for Covid testing

[I]  Virus-hit India mulls easier loan, tax rules

[I]  Cash dash has dollar set for best week since 2008 crisis

[I]  Re breaches 75 as FPIs dump stocks on redemptions

[I]  Prices of agricultural commodities drop 20% post COVID-19 outbreak

[I]  Work from home raises unique tax challenges

[I]  India Inc seeks stimulus to tackle coronavirus

[I]  Government considers tax compliance breather

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  NPA norms may be eased, tax deferment likely in coronavirus healing touch

[I]  Janata curfew, economic task force: Modi scales up coronavirus fight

[I]  Govt bans international flights for a week from Sunday as virus spreads

[I]  India to offer unemployment benefits to workers affected by coronavirus

[I]  PMS players take a hard knock to their portfolios amid market volatility

[I]  Coronavirus pandemic burns Rs 1.9 trillion hole in LIC's investments

MARKETS (10:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8301;  USDINR DGCX: 75.1500;  DJIA Mini: 19952;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5233;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 17030;  EUR-USD: 1.0755; Crude Oil (WTI): 26.33;  Gold (Spot): 1483

Best Regards, ARBIND

20 Mar 2020

EXTRAORDINARY SITUATIONS CALL FOR EXTRAORDINARY TRUST. WISHING A REMARKABLE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 19 Mar 2020

Fear grips markets as faith in intervention runs out which is triggering wave of U.S. workers filing for jobless benefits while getting lump-sum payments into the hands of every American as the government tries to turn its tax-collection system into a money-distribution machine. The deficit may soar well past the record $1.5 trillion hit in 2009, when the U.S. reeled through two years of financial crisis and recession although White House warms to raining ‘helicopter money’ on US. Brazil cuts rates to 3.75% with likely recession while Indonesia, Philippines set to cut rates anew. With much of Europe in lockdown, economic activity has come to a near standstill and markets have been in a tailspin, foreshadowing a deep recession on par with the 2008 global financial crisis and raising questions about the euro zone's cohesion at times of stress. The European Central Bank announces a new €750 billion bond-buying program to combat a coronavirus-related economic slowdown. ECB launched a new, dedicated bond-purchase scheme, bringing its planned purchases for this year to 1.1 trillion euro with the newly agreed buys alone worth 6% of the euro area's GDP. The Finance Ministry of India is considering a rescue package worth as much as $1.6 billion proposal that includes the temporary suspension of most taxes levied on the aviation sector, including a deferment of aviation fuel tax.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fear grips markets as faith in intervention runs out

[I]  ECB tensions over how to combat coronavirus spill into open

[I]  Second wave of coronavirus cases hits Asia

[I]  Spanish PM calls for emergency budget to combat coronavirus

[I]  EU warns of broadband strain as millions work from home

[I]  US and Canada close land border to non-essential traffic

[I]  White House warms to raining ‘helicopter money’ on US

[I]  UK needs to do more to help workers and families

REUTERS

[I]  India mulls up to $1.6 billion rescue plan for aviation sector after coronavirus

[I]  ECB to print 1 trillion euro to stem virus rout

[I]  Japan must be mindful of fiscal situation when compiling stimulus, finance minister says

[I]  Dollar surges, stocks fall as ECB fails to stop panic

[I]  Risk premium on U.S. investment-grade credit triples on virus worries

[I]  Indian banks shelve fundraising as coronavirus derails markets

[I]  U.S housing market shows strength before coronavirus outbreak

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  ECB Announces 750 Billion Euro Pandemic Bond-Buying Program

[I]  New Zealand Government Says Citizens Should Not Travel Overseas

[I]  World Could Need $26 Trillion Stimulus, Top Global Fund Says

[I]  Australia Unemployment Unexpectedly Falls, Defying Virus Hit

[I]  China Builders Face Defaults as Cashflow Comes Under Pressure

[I]  Australia, New Zealand Bonds Join Global Sell-Off as QE Looms

[I]  New Zealand Economic Growth Slowed Before Coronavirus Hit

[I]  U.S. Rescue Plan, QE Down Under, ECB Emergency Call: Eco Day

[I]  Brazil Cuts Rates to 3.75% With Recession Likely After Virus

[I]  Indonesia, Philippines Set to Cut Rates Anew: Decision Guide

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Coronavirus Pandemic to Test Limits of How Much Debt U.S. Can Bear

[I]  ECB To Launch New Bond-Buying Program

[I]  Treasury Asks Congress to Let It Backstop Money Markets

[I]  The Government Wants to Send You Money—but How Soon Will It Arrive?

[I]  Senate Passes Bill to Combat Pandemic, Turns to Stimulus Plan

[I]  Coronavirus Triggers Wave of U.S. Workers Filing for Jobless Benefits

[I]  Some Bank Branches Run Low on Cash as Customers Make Big Withdrawals

[I]  Challenge for Policy Makers: Rescue Economy Without Fueling a Backlash

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Covid-19: Work from home is no option for these pillars of economy

[I]  Total installed solar capacity in the open-access market reached 3.6 GW in December 2019: Report

[I]  Moody’s cuts global shipping industry outlook to negative

[I]  Work-from-home a tough proposition for manufacturing, services sectors; experts fear job losses

[I]  Govt to mobilise ₹51,000 cr more via Treasury-Bills to bridge cash flow mismatch

[I]  Fraud reporting: Centre to reduce fines on auditors

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Digital India gets renewed push due to virus

[I]  RBI to infuse Rs 10,000 crore liquidity, likely to aid shorter term yields

[I]  Government liabilities at Rs 93.89 lakh crore at December-end, up 3.2 per cent over Q2

[I]  S&P lowers India's growth forecast to 5.2 pc in 2020

[I]  Foreign trade policy with long-term goal of self-reliance in works

[I]  Can’t comply with summons due to coronavirus: Companies, banks, NBFCs tell taxman

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Advance corporation tax collection falls over 10% in Apr-Mar FY20

[I]  Soon, pay less and get better health cover: IRDAI hints at new changes

[I]  Toll collection, traffic movement down 10-20%, force majeure likely

[I]  As fiscal year comes to a close, auditors to get advisory amid virus scare

[I]  Struggling to meet target, IT staffers urge to extend FY20 to Apr 30

[I]  Vegetable prices surge ahead of mandi closure despite surge in arrivals

[I]  Economic impact of Coronavirus: Bad in Jan-March, worse in April-June

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8050;  USDINR DGCX: 75.3000;  DJIA Mini: 18888;  FTSE 100 Fut: 4889;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 16200;  EUR-USD: 1.0892; Crude Oil (WTI): 21.52;  Gold (Spot): 1474

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 Mar 2020