WISHING A WONDERFUL WEEKEND WITH WIT AND WHIZ

Macro Economic News 04 Aug 2018

 

UK hikes interest rates for second time in a decade. Sanofi and Novartis are stockpiling drugs to prepare for Brexit. Americans invested a lot more money overseas in 2017. India's fast-growing economy gets another interest rate hike. The $4.5 trillion experiment rattling markets. Russia dumped 84% of its American debt. Wage is lowest since 1938. Gold is plunging despite market volatility.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Italian PM seeks to calm jitters on budget

[I]  US hits Russian bank with sanctions over North Korea

[I]  Japan weighs sovereign fund for US infrastructure investments

[I]  Hedge funds fight back against tech in the war for talent

[I]  The war on drugs has been lost

 

REUTERS

[I]  RBI's choice: focus on falling rupee or bank cash crunch?

[I]  China plans tariffs on $60 billion of U.S. goods in latest trade salvo

[I]  India to impose tariffs on some U.S. goods in September

[I]  N.Y. Fed markets chief sees policy normalization going smoothly

[I]  U.S. court orders Trump administration to fully reinstate DACA programme

[I]  U.S. money market volatility seen as 'normal' during structural change: N.Y. Fed's Potter

[I]  U.S. retailer National Stores preparing to file for bankruptcy: sources

[I]  U.S. job growth slows in July, unemployment rate drops

[I]  Mexico sees key NAFTA issues resolved next week, Canada joining soon

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Hedge Funds Unnerved by Trade War Cut Oil Bets to 2-Year Low

[I]  Tit-For-Tat Becomes the Norm as U.S., China Dig In for Trade War

[I]  ‘Fantastically Good’ Canadian Economy Shifts Focus to Rate Hike

[I]  Carney's Misunderstood BOE Rate Hike Inflames U.K. Brexit Divide

[I]  Smaller Restaurants Are Starving for Sales After Earnings Misses

[I]  These U.S. Industries Hired Most – and Least – in July

[I]  Argentine Central Bank Is Considering $5 Billion Repo Loan

[I]  U.S.-China Trade Tensions Escalate, Stifling Recovery: EM Review

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  July Hiring Slowdown Masks Labor Market Strength

[I]  The Jobs Report in Eight Charts

[I]  July Employment by the Numbers

[I]  Fed Likely to Stay on Track for Rate Increase

[I]  Logistics Payrolls Surging Ahead of Fall Shipping Season

[I]  U.S. Trade Gap Widened in June

[I]  China Threatens Retaliatory Tariffs on $60 Billion of U.S. Products

[I]  China Fights Back After Yuan Slide

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India Met dispels fears of a sub-par monsoon

[I]  TRAI pushes ‘Make in India’ in recommendations on telecom gear

[I]  Banks to back staff on loan decisions with legal, financial aid

[I]  Loan waivers, normal monsoon lead to 15% drop in crop insurance enrolment in FY18

[I]  ‘India faces skills deficit in Blockchain’

[I]  Include deposit-taking NBFCs in co-origination model: FIDC to RBI

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex kitty contracts $20 billion in April-July

[I]  RBI's choice: Focus on falling rupee or bank cash crunch?

[I]  97% of family-run businesses in India don't have succession plan documents: Study

[I]  What companies and government are doing to empower persons with disabilities

[I]  India is being thrifty in good news for budget gap goal

[I]  GST Council to meet on August 4; panel to focus on MSME sector problems

[I]  Government to take action against 2.25 lakh companies for not filing financial statement

[I]  Government ready to make more changes, if necessary, to IBC

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  IMD says monsoon in August-September to be 'normal', contradicts Skymet

[I]  Pay gap: Top executives earn 3000 times that of the median employee

[I]  Govt achieves target of 50-mn free LPG connections 8-months before schedule

[I]  Services sector grows fastest since October 2016 to 54.2 in July: PMI

[I]  RBI rate hikes likely to cause bump in small savings interest rates

[I]  The crowdsourcing route to a fascinating documentation of familial memories

[I]  The Billionaire Raj: Cricket to elections, how money has changed everything

Best Regards, ARBIND

04 Aug 2018

WISHING A DAY OF PATIENCE AND SUCCESS. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 03 Aug 2018

 

Apple hits $1 trillion, tough trade talk continues out of Washington, and Asia’s traders look to close out a tumultuous week on a high. SEC is boosting its scrutiny of brokerages that deal in cryptocurrencies, the latest sign that authorities want to know more about a burgeoning market that they fear might be full of misconduct. There’s more pain ahead unless China changes its economic system, as the Asian nation repeated it will never surrender to U.S. trade threats.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Trump administration proposes weaker auto emissions rules

[I]  US sanctions on Turkish ministers threaten strategic partnership

[I]  Gold demand slumps to lowest since 2009 – report

[I]  Trump zeroes in on China after trade truce with Europe

[I]  Pakistan considers mass privatisation drive as it seeks IMF bailout

[I]  Trump tax cut push for wealthy faces thorny obstacles

[I]  China’s indebted conglomerates pile into anti-poverty push

[I]  German government debt falls below $2tn

[I]  Bank of England raises interest rates to highest level since 2009

[I]  Eurozone business confidence hit by trade fears

 

REUTERS

[I]  India likely to postpone raising tariffs on U.S. goods

[I]  Swiss can give bank client data to India in tax dodge case - court

[I]  State refiners drive India's July Iran oil imports to a record: trade sources

[I]  China to focus more on transmission of monetary policy amid rising external uncertainty

[I]  Japan finmin says no concrete plan now for U.S. infrastructure fund

[I]  Sri Lanka central bank keeps key interest rates steady

[I]  China July services new business growth weakest since December 2015: Caixin PMI

[I]  BOJ policymakers at logger-heads addressing weak prices, rising stimulus cost

[I]  Japan plans sovereign wealth fund to finance U.S. infrastructure: Nikkei

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Central Banks Take the Spotlight as Economic Anxiety Lingers: Eco Week

[I]  May Meets Macron as She Charts an 11-Week Path to a Brexit Deal

[I]  Hawkish Fed, Weak Yuan Signal More Trouble Ahead for Emerging Markets

[I]  To Trump's Chagrin, Trade Standoff Helps Power Dollar Higher

[I]  Japan's Biggest Theme Is Proving Tough to Play in Stock Market

[I]  Central Banks Take the Spotlight as Economic Anxiety Lingers: Eco Week

[I]  U.S. Farmland Values Hit a Record Despite Trade Fears

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Jobless Claims Tick Slightly Higher

[I]  China Says U.S. Trade Pressure Won’t Work

[I]  U.S. Pressures China With Punitive Trade, Defense Measures

[I]  Trump Administration Aims to Freeze Fuel Standards, End Tougher California Rules

[I]  Bank of England Raises Rates to Highest Level in Nearly a Decade

[I]  Adding Up the Cost of Climate Change in Lost Lives

[I]  Auto Sales Lost Speed in July

[I]  Treasury Plans to Boost Borrowing as Trillion-Dollar Deficits Loom

[I]  Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Says Economy Is Strong

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Activity Loses Momentum

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India may hold tariff fire against US

[I]  Watch out, defaulters! Banks have detectives on your tail

[I]  ‘GST rate-cuts may lead to revenue shortfall in near-term’

[I]  Rising bad debts: PSBs add 1,186 more to wilful defaulters’ list in 27 months

[I]  Gold demand falls 8% in June quarter on weak jewellery sales

[I]  Farm exports clock 6% growth in Q1 to touch $4.68 billion

[I]  Monsoon unfazed by El Nino threat

[I]  Customer data portability coming in insurance sector

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Rupee among top five in Asia on the total returns charts

[I]  63% of Indian firms struggling to comply with EU GDPR: Report

[I]  Integrated farming key to boost farmers income: Agriculture Minister

[I]  Swiss can give bank client data to India in tax dodge case: Switzerland's top court

[I]  Retaliatory tariffs on 29 US goods may be delayed by 45 days

[I]  Manufacturing sector's wimpy sentiment shows pain ahead

[I]  One-time settlement of VAT, excise disputes in the works

[I]  NITI Aayog working on strategy document to define 2023 objectives

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Digital push: You may soon get 'instant cashback' on your GST e-payments

[I]  RBI policy move: Banks expected to raise term deposit rates gradually

[I]  Markets see steepest fall in 4 months on escalating US-China trade tensions

[I]  New NBFCs set up realty verticals to tap demand for credit from developers

[I]  Currency in circulation continues to grow fast, may impact liquidity

[I]  RBI's back-to-back rate hikes in sync with other emerging markets

[I]  Abolition of tax collected at source on e-commerce may be on cards

[I]  RBI adds gold to forex reserves in June quarter, buys 2.5 tonnes in March

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11317;  USDINR DGCX: 68.7525;  DJIA Mini: 25284;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7550;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22545;  EUR-USD: 1.1590; Crude Oil (WTI): 69.04;  Gold (Spot): 1208

Best Regards, ARBIND

03 Aug 2018

WISHING A DAY OF CHANGE AND CHARGE. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 02 Aug 2018

RBI has raised its interest rate while The Federal Reserve left short-term rates unchanged but put a hike in September back in focus. Markets were mixed as prospects for strong economic growth were offset by rekindled trade-war concerns. China’s central bank has started actively encouraging banks to extend more credit by taking a softer stance on loan quotas as authorities ratchet up efforts to bolster a cooling economy.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed hails strong economy with rate rises ahead

[I]  Nicaragua’s $13bn economy sinks as uprising persists

[I]  Drugmakers prepare to stockpile drugs in UK before Brexit

[I]  Russia says Iranian forces pulled back from Israeli border

[I]  US Treasury outlines tax reforms over $3tn offshore cash pile

[I]  Indian central bank raises rates for second time in three months

[I]  China easing threatens to derail debt-cutting efforts 

[I]  UK takes heart at Angela Merkel’s rethink on Brexit

REUTERS

[I]  Fed leaves rates unchanged, stays on course for September hike

[I]  England slump as India strike back in final session

[I]  India gold demand to revive in H2 as government supports farmers - WGC

[I]  Iran is seen readying major exercise as tensions with U.S. simmer

[I]  Trump's overture to emerging Asia drowned out by trade war

[I]  China central bank to fine-tune policy to ensure ample liquidity

[I]  China's state planner expects consumption growth to recover as seasonal factors fade

[I]  Trump administration adds to China trade pressure with higher tariff plan

[I]   Highlights of RBI comments after rate-hike decision

[I]  RBI hikes key rate by 25 bps for second straight meet; 'neutral' stance kept

[I]  Bank of England poised to raise rates in the face of Brexit risk

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Indian Rate Hike a ‘Non-Event’ for Stocks, Next Up the Election

[I]  China Junk Bond Bargains Tempt Aberdeen to Increase Exposure

[I]  China’s Empire of Money Is Reshaping Global Trade

[I]  Bitcoin's Use in Commerce Keeps Falling Even as Volatility Eases

[I]  U.S. Targets Property, China's New Empire, Fed Outlook: Eco Day

[I]  BOE Rate Hike Seen Despite Brexit on Horizon: Decision Day Guide

[I]  Looking for a Pay Rise in Britain? Change Jobs, Economists Say

[I]  Drought Sends Australian Wheat on a World-Beating Rally

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Federal Reserve Holds Rates Steady, Says Economy Is Strong 

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the August Statement Changed From June 

[I]  Private Sector Adds 219,000 New Jobs in July, Driven by Mid-Sized Firms 

[I]  Adding Up the Cost of Climate Change in Lost Lives 

[I]  U.S. Turns Up the Pressure on China 

[I]  Auto Sales Lost Speed in July

[I]  U.S. Manufacturing Activity Loses Momentum

[I]  U.S. Consumer Confidence Rises Slightly

[I]  U.S. Household Spending, Income Rose in June

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  RBI strikes another blow in inflation fight

[I]  TRAI recommends lower prices for spectrum auctions

[I]  Car sales slip marginally in July

[I]  GST mop-up exceeds Rs. 96,000 crore in July

[I]  July fails to deliver rain, clouds monsoon outlook

[I]  ‘Rate hike was to maintain 4% retail inflation target: Patel

[I]  Lending, deposit rates to go up

[I]  To boost priority sector lending, RBI allows banks to co-originate loans with NBFCs

[I]  E-comm policy ‘work-in-progress, will incorporate more views’

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  10-year yield rises above 3% as US steps up borrowing

[I]  RBI assures debt market of more liquidity

[I]  Retail inflation for industrial workers rose to 3.93 pc in June

[I]  RBI cites crop MSP, oil volatility, fiscal slippage as risks to inflation while hiking repo rate

[I]  Indian consumer sentiment hits record high in July: Report

[I]  Manufacturing sector activity eases in July amid softer increase in output, new orders: PMI

[I]  How to de-risk infrastructure investments

[I]  RBI rate hike to avoid drifting away from inflation mandate, says Urjit Patel

[I]  Cabinet clears amendments to GST laws

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Trai recommends sale of airwaves of over Rs 5 trn for 5G auction

[I]  RBI increases repo rate by 25 bps to 6.5%; retains 'neutral' stance

[I]  Proxy advisory firms push for more changes in corporate boardrooms

[I]  Domestic car industry to report decline in July sales on high base effect

[I]  Manufacturing PMI eases to 52.8 in July as new orders, output rise

[I]  With UPI 2.0 set to launch soon, transactions for July fall by 4%

[I]  Centre's fiscal situation comfortable: DEA Secretary Subhash Garg

[I]  China to ease financial conditions, steps up effort to boost lending

MARKETS (10:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11320;  USDINR DGCX: 68.6025;  DJIA Mini: 25247;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7564;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22501;  EUR-USD: 1.1650; Crude Oil (WTI): 67.74;  Gold (Spot): 1219

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Aug 2018