TOGETHERNESS IS THE ESSENCE OF COMING DAYS. WISHING A LOVING WEEKEND AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 30 Nov 2019

 

India's wettest monsoon in 25 years could lift 2020 wheat output to record. India's annual economic growth slowed to 4.5% in the July-September quarter, its weakest pace since 2013, putting pressure to speed up reforms as five rate cuts by the central bank have failed to boost investments. India’s sharp economic slowdown is hurting rural residents as the prices of the commodities they grow and sell are rising more slowly than the things they buy. India’s fiscal deficit for April-Oct at 102.4% crosses full year target while non-food credit growth rate at 8.3%, down from 13.4% in year-ago period. China is leaving the door open for a trade deal with the U.S., even as it noisily complains about President Trump’s signing of a bill supporting Hong Kong’s anti-Beijing protesters although China financial warning signs are flashing almost everywhere. Japan govt mulls over $92 billion stimulus package to spur growth. European Banks Pile Into Risky Loans as Economic Outlook Darkens. The U.S. economy headed into the holiday-shopping season on solid ground with a pickup in household spending and orders for long-lasting factory goods. An unprecedented frenzy of debt sales around the world is threatening to cool this year’s hot returns on corporate bonds. Companies have sold a record $2.43 trillion so far this year across currencies, surpassing previous full-year records.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US shoppers turn to their phones for Black Friday splurge

[I]  France seeks green standards for EU companies

[I]  Erdogan calls Macron ‘brain-dead’ over Nato comments

[I]  Iraq’s prime minister to resign after weeks of protests

[I]  India’s economic growth cools to six-year low

[I]  German move to keep tech groups out of non-EU hands

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's economic growth slows, pressure on Modi to speed up reforms

[I]  India's wettest monsoon in 25 years could lift 2020 wheat output to record

[I]  Japan govt mulls over $92 billion stimulus package to spur growth: Nikkei

[I]  Ireland regains AA rating for first time since financial crisis

[I]  Global funds raise stock allocations at the expense of cash: Reuters poll

[I]  Expert Views: India's economic growth slows to 4.5% in July-September

[I]  India's economic growth slows to 4.5% in July-September quarter

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Financial Warning Signs Are Flashing Almost Everywhere

[I]  ECB’s Nominees Back Negative Rates And Warn of Side Effects

[I]  Hong Kong Stocks’ Sudden Tumble Catches Traders Off Guard

[I]  Record $2.4 Trillion Bond Binge Is Threatening Investor Returns

[I]  Charting the Global Economy: The Playgrounds of the U.S. Wealthy

[I]  European Banks Pile Into Risky Loans as Economic Outlook Darkens

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  India’s Rural Residents Bear Brunt of Economic Slowdown

[I]  India’s GDP Growth Slows to More Than 6-Year Low of 4.5%

[I]  A Tight Job Market Insulates a Slowing Economy—and Perhaps Trump, Too

[I]  Mexico’s President Urges Quick U.S. Ratification of Trade Deal

[I]  Online Shopping Sets Strong Pace as Holiday Season Begins

[I]  New York Fed Adds $88.45 Billion to Markets

[I]  China Criticizes U.S. Support for Protests, Signals Trade Hope

[I]  China’s Manufacturing Resumes Growth

[I]  U.S. Growth Enters Fourth Quarter on More Solid Footing

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GDP growth touches six-year low; dips to 4.5% in July-Sept

[I]  Fiscal deficit exceeds budget estimates during April-October on lower tax receipts

[I]  Cut in corporate tax rate was needed to spur investments, growth: CEA

[I]  Core sector contracts 5.8 per cent in October

[I]  India accedes to global green treaty on ship recycling

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Japan won’t sign RCEP if India doesn’t join

[I]  Experts on GDP numbers: 'Worst is not past us'

[I]  Forex reserve hits fresh record high of $449 billion

[I]  Centre to come out with permanent solution to stubble burning: MoS Agriculture

[I]  Fiscal deficit for April-Oct at 102.4%, crosses full year target

[I]  Govt to bring tax refund scheme for exporters before Cabinet

[I]  Governance reforms take centre stage

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  GDP growth slows to 4.5% in Q2 as manufacturing, services disappoint

[I]  Property funds are in no hurry to invest in stressed realty projects

[I]  Mid-level IT jobs to face pressure in 2020; fresher hiring to remain robust

[I]  Slowdown blues: Services sector only bright spot for GVA growth rate

[I]  Oct non-food credit growth rate at 8.3%, down from 13.4% in year-ago period

[I]  Luck only gets you so far in India with growth sliding below 5%

[I]  India is in the midst of an investment and consumption slump, says expert

[I]  India announces $450 mn line of credit for infra development in Sri Lanka

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

30 Nov 2019

THE MOST AMAZING JOURNEY IN LIFE IS ‘COMING HOME’; ON FRIDAY. WISHING A SOOTHING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 29 Nov 2019

 

China is leaving the door open for a trade deal with the U.S., even as it noisily complains about President Trump’s signing of a bill supporting Hong Kong’s anti-Beijing protesters. The U.S. economy headed into the holiday-shopping season on solid ground with a pickup in household spending and orders for long-lasting factory goods. Canada’s Economy Faces a Prolonged Period of Sluggish Growth. The Bank of Mexico lowered its economic growth estimates for 2019 and 2020, saying weakness had been more pronounced and prolonged than it previously expected whereas Mexican central bank signals rate cuts will only come gradually. UK consumer confidence stuck at six-year low in November. Fitch warns Eurozone is at risk of Japan-style stagnation, while Global trade slowdown hits EU the hardest; Lebanon urged to restructure debt as crisis deepens. Germany falls out of love with economic orthodoxy. India's economy is seen growing at 4.7% in September quarter however India remains king of overseas remittances and Credit card spend is expected to grow to Rs 15 trillion by FY24. Stats panel has recommended 2020-21 as GDP base year.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Eurozone at risk of Japan-style stagnation, Fitch warns

[I]  Macron warns Turkey on Nato allies’ solidarity

[I]  Brussels ramps up emissions goals amid ‘climate emergency’

[I]  Trump signs Hong Kong pro-democracy bills

[I]  Hong Kong act complicates US-China relationship

[I]  Europe’s joint space programme gets rise in spending

[I]  Global trade slowdown hits EU the hardest, figures show

[I]  Lebanon urged to restructure debt as crisis deepens

[I]  Germany falls out of love with economic orthodoxy

 

REUTERS

[I]  India's economy seen growing at 4.7% in September quarter

[I]  Jordan says began negotiations over new IMF program

[I]  Japan's factory output posts biggest fall in almost two years

[I]  UK consumer confidence stuck at six-year low in November: GfK

[I]  Chile central bank says to sell up to $20 billion in interventions

[I]  Japan's jobless rate stays at 2.4% in October: government

[I]  Peru signs measure to speed up $29 billion infrastructure spending

[I]  Japan's retail sales slump the most since 2015 as tax hike hits demand

[I]  Serbia hails end of austerity as parliament passes 2020 budget

[I]  China reiterates its pledge to lower trade barriers, widen market access: Xinhua

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  The Big Question on Hong Kong: How Will China Hit Back at Trump?

[I]  Euro-Area Sentiment Brightens in Sign Economy Reached Trough

[I]  Saudi Arabia Signals It’s Had Enough of OPEC+ Cheating on Quotas

[I]  Japanese Factory Output Drops More Than Expected In October

[I]  Central Banks’ Climate, Big in Japan, India Shock Looms: Eco Day

[I]  Mexican Central Bank Signals Rate Cuts Will Only Come Gradually

[I]  Canada’s Economy Faces a Prolonged Period of Sluggish Growth

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  A Tight Job Market Insulates a Slowing Economy—and Perhaps Trump, Too

[I]  China Criticizes U.S. Support for Protests, Signals Trade Hope

[I]  U.S. Growth Enters Fourth Quarter on More Solid Footing

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.3% in October

[I]  Transcript: WSJ Interview With Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan

[I]  Bank of Mexico Cuts Economic Growth Forecasts

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  More worries for govt as Q2 GDP growth likely to be below 5%

[I]  E-invoicing mandatory for businesses having turnover of Rs 100 cr or more from April 1

[I]  Companies’ credit profiles unlikely to improve in 2020, warns Moody’s

[I]  Govt seeks ₹21,000 crore as supplementary grant

[I]  Warm Indo-Pacific pool altering global rainfall patterns, reveals study

[I]  Customs Department set to roll out faceless assessment

[I]  Flexi-staffing gains popularity in India

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  India braces for lowest GDP growth in years

[I]  India remains king of overseas remittances

[I]  Stats panel has recommended 2020-21 as GDP base year: Rao Inderjit Singh

[I]  Highways ministry lines up projects worth Rs 50,000 crore to be awarded in next 3 months

[I]  Typo in tax bill? Bill says lower MAT not this year

[I]  Govt introduces Labour Code on Industrial Relations bill in Lok Sabha

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Companies will soon be required to pay for re-skilling retrenched workers

[I]  For states, balancing fiscal maths and capex will be challenging: CRISIL

[I]  Credit card spend expected to grow to Rs 15 trillion by FY24: Report

[I]  From onions in India to Pork in China, rising food prices worry economists

 

MARKETS (06:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12188;  USDINR DGCX: 71.7725;  DJIA Mini: 28103;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7410;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23460;  EUR-USD: 1.1011; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.12;  Gold (Spot): 1456

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
29 Nov 2019

BEAUTY LIES IN INTENTION AND FORMATION EVEN WITH BARBED POSSESSIONS. WISHING A SPLENDID DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 28 Nov 2019

 

U.S. economic growth picked up slightly in the third quarter, rather than slowing as initially reported, and there are signs the downturn in business investment may be drawing to a close. The Bank of Mexico lowered its economic growth estimates for 2019 and 2020, saying weakness had been more pronounced and prolonged than it previously expected. Japan's retail sales post sharpest fall since 2015 as tax hike hits demand while vested interests are dragging South Africa down. Merkel warns Europe cannot defend itself without Nato, however, Switzerland moves to end tariffs on imported industrial goods. China warns of 'firm counter measures' after Trump signs U.S. legislation on Hong Kong whereas China wants to speed up business reforms, investment to boost slowing economy although China urged to lower 2020 growth target as trade war bites. Economists don’t expect a third rate cut in Korea this year; Brazil caps overdraft interest rates, they’re still 150% a year. 15th Finance Commission of India gets extension till October 2020 while Moody’s expects Centre’s fiscal deficit to rise to 3.7% whereas economist are worried that It's Getting More Expensive to Eat. It is sad to see Indian varsities further drop in QS World University Asia rankings; none in Asia’s top 30.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Lagarde wants key role for climate change in ECB review

[I]  Merkel warns Europe cannot defend itself without Nato

[I]  UK raises funding to European Space Agency more than 15%

[I]  Brussels eyes easing bank rules to spur green loans

[I]  India’s bankruptcy law faces its biggest opportunity yet

[I]  Vested interests are dragging South Africa down

 

REUTERS

[I]  Japan's retail sales post sharpest fall since 2015 as tax hike hits demand

[I]  China gives P2P lenders two years to exit industry: document

[I]  Top Mexican official floats prospect of labour tweak for continental trade deal

[I]  U.S. economy picks up in third-quarter; data surprise on the upside

[I]  China warns of 'firm counter measures' after Trump signs U.S. legislation on Hong Kong

[I]  China wants to speed up business reforms, investment to boost slowing economy - premier

[I]  China urged to lower 2020 growth target as trade war bites

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Economists Don’t Expect a Third Rate Cut in Korea This Year

[I]  It's Getting More Expensive to Eat, and Economists Are Worried

[I]  U.S. Economy in Modest Start to Quarter as Consumers Tepid

[I]  Record $100 Billion Asian Junk Bonds Got Funds Wanting More

[I]  These Are the Asian Currencies to Watch in 2020

[I]  China Accelerates $142 Billion Bond Sale to Boost Economy

[I]  Brazil Caps Overdraft Interest Rates. They’re Still 150% a Year

[I]  Switzerland Moves to End Tariffs on Imported Industrial Goods

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Growth Enters Fourth Quarter on More Solid Footing

[I]  U.S. Consumer Spending Rose 0.3% in October

[I]  Transcript: WSJ Interview With Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan

[I]  Fed Has Taken ‘Significant Action’ to Offset Risks to Economy, Brainard Says

[I]  Bank of Mexico Cuts Economic Growth Forecasts

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Growth may have slowed, but there’s no recession, says Nirmala Sitharaman

[I]  Moody’s expects Centre’s fiscal deficit to rise to 3.7%

[I]  Coal production in India up by 164.58 MT in 5 years

[I]  US cuts funds for WTO Appellate Body drastically

[I]  15th Finance Commission gets extension till October 2020

[I]  India’s crude steel output falls 3.4 per cent in October

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  States' rising debt pose threat to India's fiscal deficit target

[I]  Prices of 80% of medicines may soon fall

[I]  European bonds await US-China trade talk progress

[I]  Cabinet may soon take up first corporate bond ETF

[I]  Onion prices resume upward trend, touch Rs 100/kg mark in vegetable markets

[I]  Japan keen to fix India’s RCEP issues

[I]  India in talks with Russia to import coking coal to reduce dependence on others

[I]  The current economic slump has another side to it

[I]  Watch: State of economy ahead of Q2 GDP numbers

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  RBI may give mutual funds, NBFCs access to large credit information

[I]  Labour laws: Govt proposes making 14-day notice must for holding a strike

[I]  No automatic stay on enforcement of arbitration award if challenged: SC

[I]  Trai unlikely to intervene in telecom tariffs, floor price for now: Sources

[I]  After long wait, National Financial Reporting Authority gets own address

[I]  Indian varsities drop in QS World University Asia rankings; none in top 30

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12107;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4175;  DJIA Mini: 28080;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7410;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23440;  EUR-USD: 1.1006; Crude Oil (WTI): 57.85;  Gold (Spot): 1457

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
28 Nov 2019

BEAUTIFUL HEART SHINES IN ALL CIRCUMSTANCES. WISHING A GLOWING DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 27 Nov 2019

 

Nobel Laureate Robert Engle says that India doesn’t face any near-term financial crisis however he warns against the risk of undercapitalisation for state-owned institutions. As per Crisil, states need to raise infrastructure spending to Rs 110 lakh cr over next decade whereas India Ratings lowers India's Q2 GDP growth to 4.7% and forecast for FY20 at 5.6%. Reuter poll indicates Indian stock gains to be limited in 2020 as economy slows.

 

U.S. consumer confidence fell in November for the fourth month in a row, another sign that American households are pulling back amid a global slowdown and continued trade war fears although Home-price growth accelerated in September, marking two-straight months of price increases after a long period of decelerating gains. However a big question remains open that can the market absorb 21 million homes?

 

Mexico banks on $43bn infrastructure plan for economic growth while Brazil central bank vows more currency intervention if needed. Chile brings forward rate decision as social unrest hits economy where China warns over rising household debt. Powell says Fed’s rate cuts reflect more bearish view of economy and ECB explores development of a digital currency.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  US commerce secretary to vet tech imports

[I]  Romania’s leadership duo pledge pro-EU era

[I]  Mexico banks on $43bn infrastructure plan for growth

[I]  China warns over rising household debt 

[I]  UN study reveals gap in required cuts to emissions

[I]  ECB explores development of a digital currency

[I]  China’s bank funding pressured as confidence drops

 

REUTERS

[I]  Global temperature rises could bring 'destructive' effects, U.N. says

[I]  Trump says near deal with China, but U.S. also has eye on Hong Kong

[I]  Bank of Japan policymaker Sakurai sets high bar for additional easing

[I]  China's industrial profits post steepest fall in 8 months

[I]  Japan share prices seen stepping up to 30-year peak: Reuters poll

[I]  U.S.-China trade deal close, Trump says; negotiations continue

[I]  U.S. consumer confidence ebbing; housing market firming

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  South Korean Consumers Turn Optimistic for First Time Since April

[I]  Fed's Brainard Sees Solid Economy, Backs Big Strategy Change

[I]  Goldman Says Closing Gender Gap Could Boost Australian GDP by 8%

[I]  China’s Slowdown, Trade Deal on Brink, Modi’s Trillions: Eco Day

[I]  Indian Sugar Demand Seen Hurt by Economic Slowdown, Health Worry

[I]  Brazil Central Bank Vows More Currency Intervention If Needed

[I]  Chile Brings Forward Rate Decision as Social Unrest Hits Economy

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  U.S. Consumer Confidence Declined in November

[I]  Fed Has Taken ‘Significant Action’ to Offset Risks to Economy, Brainard Says

[I]  Home-Price Growth Picked Up in September

[I]  Powell Says Fed’s Rate Cuts Reflect More Bearish View of Economy

[I]  U.S. Firms Pull Back on Investment

[I]  What Bad News? Investors Keep Stocks Rising

[I]  Newsletter: Can the Market Absorb 21 Million Homes?

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India Ratings lowers India's Q2 GDP growth to 4.7%; FY20 forecast at 5.6%

[I]  India doesn’t face any near-term financial crisis, says Nobel Laureate Robert Engle

[I]  States need to raise infrastructure spending to Rs 110 lakh cr over next decade: Crisil

[I]  US restrictions continue to hit exports of wild-caught shrimps

[I]  Govt has its task cut out as direct tax, GST mop-up slows

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  A UN climate change report has dire findings

[I]  Major currencies hardly budge, trapped by US-China trade

[I]  RBI revises framework on currency swap arrangement for SAARC nations

[I]  Government may restrict import of all types of refined edible oils

[I]  Bill introduced to raise cap on chit fund collections

[I]  Commerce ministry seeks views of different departments on national logistics policy

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Infrastructure needs Rs 235-trillion investment in 10 years: CRISIL

[I]  Policyholders likely to gain as Irdai proposes changes to motor policy

[I]  Risk of undercapitalisation for state-owned institutions: Nobel winner

[I]  States' GST compensation may need to be extended beyond 2022: Report

[I]  At least 100 petrol pumps, 5% in remote areas: New liberalised fuel policy

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 12094;  USDINR DGCX: 71.4200;  DJIA Mini: 28122;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7411;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 23450;  EUR-USD: 1.1017; Crude Oil (WTI): 58.26;  Gold (Spot): 1460

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
27 Nov 2019