FAITH BE THE LOVE. LOVE BE THE FAITH. HAPPY WEEKEND.

Macro Economic News 21 Jul 2018

 

The currency war has arrived. So say some of the best and brightest in the $5.1 trillion-per-day foreign-exchange market. U.S. President Donald Trump took to Twitter Friday to accuse China and the European Union of “manipulating their currencies and interest rates lower.” The comments came after the yuan on Friday plunged past 6.80 per dollar for the first time in a year and as the nation’s central bank shows little sign of intervening to stem the slide. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin said the government is closely monitoring whether China has manipulated its currency, according to Reuters.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Full-scale trade war looms closer

[I]  Lebanon weighs legalising marijuana as best means to lift economy

[I]  Britain steps up doomsday planning for no-deal Brexit

[I]  White House rejects Putin plan for Ukraine referendum

[I]  EU’s champion idealist stands firm in fight against autocracy

[I]  North Korea’s economy suffers worst contraction for 20 years

[I]  China’s smaller cities compete to increase population

 

REUTERS

[I]  U.S. oil industry lobbies against tighter sanctions on Russia

[I]  Trump threatens tariffs on all $500 billion of Chinese imports

[I]  Dollar drops further on Trump's comments on currency, rate hike

[I]  Merkel vows to work at 'under pressure' U.S. relationship

[I]  Global Economy: U.S., euro zone growth readings to tell story of divergence

[I]  Imminent yield curve inversion 'real possibility': Fed's Bullard

[I]  Column: U.S. banks get second-quarter trading boost but more volatility needed - McGeever

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  G-20 Draft Cites Growing Trade Tension, Diplomatically

[I]  Dollar in ‘Dangerous Territory’ After Trump Blasts China, EU on FX

[I]  U.S. Homeowners Are Lingering Longer, and the Wait Is Paying Off

[I]  Trump Shreds Economic Playbook With Strong Dollar, Fed Jabs

[I]  Venezuela Is Delaying New Currency Push Amid Hyperinflation

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  President's Emerging Economic Policy: Picking Winners and Losers

[I]  Trump Continues Fed Criticism, Renews Threat on China Imports

[I]  Envoy to China Feels Heat Over Trade

[I]  America Is Running Out of Family Caregivers, Just When It Needs Them Most

[I]  Share of U.S. Employees Offered Health Care Through Work Rises

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969

[I]  America’s Factory Towns, Once Solidly Blue, Are Now a GOP Haven

[I]  China Woos U.A.E. With Trade, Balancing Concerns Over Iran Ties

[I]  U.S. to Toughen Foreign-Investment Reviews Amid Trade Fight With China

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  SEBI mulls fresh guidelines to boost start-up listing

[I]  Excessive regulations weighing on PSBs: Rajiv Kumar

[I]  India raises with EU concern over proposed steel safeguard duty

[I]  Telecom regulator tweaks M&A guidelines

[I]  Banks’ deposits rise to Rs. 1,35,421 crore

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  New Rs 100 notes will cost industry a bomb

[I]  How retailers are trying to access local towns

[I]  Cryptocurrencies would encourage illegal transactions: RBI to Supreme Court

[I]  Liquidity risk looms for Indian debt in recall of taper pain

[I]  Disappointing earnings, trade tensions send European shares south

[I]  Rupee weakening on relapsing macro vulnerability: Will it slow down growth?

[I]  ASEAN-India trade likely to touch USD 100 billion by 2020: Hardeep Puri

[I]  West Bengal to launch Ayushman Bharat under joint banner

[I]  Finalise construction workers' welfare scheme by September 30: Supreme Court to Centre

[I]  Target of 20 lakh Aadhaar based PoS units not met due to supply crunch: Govt

[I]  Export or Perish: Why India must achieve a quantum jump in exports to drive growth

[I]  India pushing ahead on Sustainable Devolvement Goals: Akbaruddin

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Rs 1 billion needed to recalibrate 240,000 ATMs for new Rs 100 notes

[I]  15th Finance Commission may need to work like it's the first: Subramanian

[I]  How organic labels and conscious users are shaping an industry on trust

[I]  Area under kharif crops shrinks due to inadequate rain in east India

[I]  Forex reserves continue to fall; down $734.5 million to $405.07 billion

[I]  Transporters strike over e-way bill, high toll collection and diesel prices

[I]  India needs its own model of capitalism, says NITI Aayog's Rajiv Kumar

Best Regards, ARBIND

21 Jul 2018

BLESSED BE WITH THE BELIEF, LOVE AND CARE. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 20 Jul 2018

 

The yuan’s slide has traders on high alert, Trump takes a jab at the Fed’s interest-rate policy, and yield curves around the world are getting flatter. From the U.K. to Indonesia, flatter yield curves, adding to signs that escalating trade tensions are depressing expectations for economic growth and inflation. Now other central banks are tightening policy, and developing economies acting to support sliding currencies. The upshot is that short-term rates are rising faster than longer maturities in a slew of markets worldwide, a potential source of concern for officials wary of the recessionary signals that curve flattening sends.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Bank of England probed risks to KPMG’s viability after string of scandals

[I]  EU migration plan is unworkable, Czech PM warns

[I]  Trump sanctions bolster influence of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards

[I]  Europe steps up preparations for no deal Brexit

[I]  Poland rushes through judicial reform to avoid EU action

[I]  China raises alarm over its dependency on imported chips

[I]  Asia’s shared-bike sector faces growth headwinds

 

REUTERS

[I]  India approves bill to prosecute fugitive tycoons

[I]  Bank of Japan's inflation target dims as prices barely budge

[I]  Bank of Japan's inflation target dims as prices barely budge

[I]  Dollar on defensive against yen, euro after Trump comments

[I]  Visiting Northern Irish border, PM May to defend her Brexit plan

[I]  Palestinians in Jerusalem demolish own homes rather than see Israelis move in

[I]  Bank of Japan's inflation target dims as prices barely budge

[I]  UK's new Brexit envoy optimistic, as EU warns of Brexit crash

[I]  No-deal Brexit would cost European Union 1.5 percent of GDP - IMF

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Trump Slams Fed Hikes, Car Tariff Warning, Yuan Tumbles: Eco Day

[I]  Global Economy Lives on the Edge as Crisis Veterans Sound Alarms

[I]  Saudis Pump More Oil to Please Trump, Then Doubt If It's Needed

[I]  Yuan Nears `PBOC Put' Level That Could Help Markets, Nomura Says

[I]  No End in Sight for Commodity Crash With Charts Sending Bear Signals

[I]  Curve Flattening Goes Global as U.K. to India Follow Treasuries

[I]  China's P2P Platform Failures Surge as Panic Spreads in Market

[I]  Powell Hints at New Read on Labor Force Justifying Gradual Hikes

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  America’s Factory Towns, Once Solidly Blue, Are Now a GOP Haven

[I]  U.S. to Toughen Foreign-Investment Reviews Amid Trade Fight With China

[I]  U.S. Jobless Claims Hit Lowest Level Since 1969

[I]  U.S. Leading Economic Indicators Rose in June

[I]  Housing Market Stumbles at the Beginning of Summer

[I]  Manufacturing Sector Hits a Sweet Spot

[I]  Following the Fed, Central Banks Are Ready to Raise Rates

[I]  House GOP Push to Extend Tax Cuts Meets Resistance in Senate

[I]  Ross: ‘Too Early to Say’ Whether National-Security Probe Will Bring Auto Tariffs

[I]  Companies Commit to Job Training in White House Initiative

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Govt takes first step to halt cheat-and-scoot

[I]  Only with consent: TRAI relief for mobile subscribers from pesky calls, spam messages

[I]  Monsoon discounts may dampen margins for domestic carriers

[I]  FRDI Bill fiasco: More caution needed in policy-making

[I]  Govt, bankers discuss stressed assets in realty, problems of buyers

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Political volatility at home, selloff in EM currencies push rupee to new low

[I]  June quarter current account deficit seen rising to 2.5% of GDP: Icra

[I]  Ahead of China, India to remain fastest growing economy in FY19 & FY20: ADB

[I]  US to hand over 'problem-list' in the hope to avoid trade war with India

[I]  US faces retaliatory tariffs from India, China and others: Congressman

[I]  PM Narendra Modi's great road trip hits a debt pothole

[I]  Banks promise Rs 1.30 lakh crore for highway development: Nitin Gadkari

[I]  Govt, stakeholders discuss ways to boost real estate sector

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  In a global trade war, India's steel companies are better placed

[I]  Army shutting down high-tech project in bid to save Rs 30 billion cost

[I]  Milk price hike: Dairy sector crisis seems over for now but will fester

[I]  Gold demand to be positive in second half of 2018, says WGC report

[I]  Govt, developers and bankers discuss problems in the realty sector

[I]  Trai notifies new rules to check pesky calls and spam messages

[I]  PM interacts with beneficiaries of rural electrification, targets Congress

[I]  Mid-year economic review set to make a comeback, maybe out in December

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10961;  USDINR DGCX: 69.1700;  DJIA Mini: 24979;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7616;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22652;  EUR-USD: 1.1650; Crude Oil (WTI): 69.52;  Gold (Spot): 1218          

Best Regards, ARBIND

20 Jul 2018

YOU ARE THE CHOSEN ONE. BE BLESSED. GOOD MORNING.

Macro Economic News 19 Jul 2018

 

Manufacturers across the U.S. expressed concern about tariffs, with many reporting higher prices and supply-chain disruptions in the wake of new trade policies, according to the Federal Reserve’s beige book report.  Auto makers, parts suppliers and dealers are joining forces to push back against plans to apply tariffs of up to 25% on vehicles and components imported into the U.S. Nationwide home building declined sharply in June, a possible sign that construction labor shortages and rising material costs are causing more damage to the housing market than many analysts initially believed. Traders keep calm and carry on as volatility declines across asset classes. And the world’s biggest money manager says an escalating trade war shouldn’t scare investors away from China. 

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  EU to confront Hungary over anti-migrant laws

[I]  Subdued pound volatility contrasts with febrile Brexit politics

[I]  Turkey’s two-year state of emergency set to come to an end

[I]  European Investment Bank faces call for overhaul after UK exits

[I]  Quantitative easing helped vulnerable more than rich, says ECB

[I]  Brussels imposes tariffs on imports of Chinese electric bicycles

[I]  Chinese VC funds pour $2.4bn into Silicon Valley start-ups

[I]  UK’s investment consultants avoid forced break-up

[I]  The cold war revival will be very expensive

 

REUTERS

[I]  EU order against Google opens new doors for mobile industry

[I]  India raises 2018/19 sugar cane floor price by 7.84 percent - minister

[I]  Australia jobs jump in June, still plenty left to hire

[I]  ADB maintains 2018, 2019 GDP growth forecasts for developing Asia

[I]  U.S. housing starts hit nine-month low; permits drop

[I]  Japan business mood slips amid fears of trade war: Reuters Tankan

[I]  Israel adopts divisive Jewish nation-state law

[I]  U.S. housing starts hit nine-month low; permits drop

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Australian Jobs Growth Surges Past Expectations; Currency Jumps

[I]  Trump Administration Reviewing Proposal to Curb Drug Rebates

[I]  Israel Passes Controversial Nation-State Bill, Haaretz Reports

[I]  Japan’s Exports Extend Growth Streak to 19 Months in June

[I]  Yen Haven Status Eclipsed by Japan Hunger for Foreign Stocks

[I]  Sydney Housing Slump Predicted to Last Until at Least 2020

[I]  Yield-Curve Inversion Imminent for Some, Long Way Off for Others

[I]  Australian Jobs Growth Surges Past Expectations; Currency Jumps

[I]  Singapore’s Future Is Good, Not Great, Economists Estimate

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Report Shows Mounting Tariff Concerns Among Businesses

[I]  Manufacturing Sector Hits a Sweet Spot

[I]  Auto Industry Pushes White House to Back Off Tariffs

[I]  Trump Threatens EU With ‘Tremendous Retribution’ on Auto Trade

[I]  Before House Panel, Powell Affirms Fed’s Plan to Raise Interest Rates Gradually

[I]  Democrats Could Become a Free-Trade Counterweight to Trump

[I]  Housing Market Stumbles at the Beginning of Summer

[I]  Iran’s Businesses Begin to Buckle Under Sanctions Threat

[I]  Former Fed Chief Ben Bernanke Says Economic Outlook Is ‘Quite Strong’

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  After public outcry, Govt drops FRDI Bill

[I]  Govt hikes fair price for sugarcane by Rs. 20 per quintal to Rs. 275

[I]  Nod for Bill to replace insolvency ordinance

[I]  Rising steel price hurting ‘Housing for All’ projects: CREDAI

[I]  Reconsider zero duties on e-transmission, they hurt poor nations: India, South Africa tell WTO

[I]  Rain deficit down to 3% despite sustained lag in the East

[I]  Credit card usage vaults; banks rake in the moolah

[I]  Govt introduces legislation to tackle ponzi, unregulated deposit schemes

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  RS passes Immovable Property (Amendment) Bill

[I]  Our bilateral relationship with Iran stands on its own: India

[I]  India engaged with US for amicable solution on duty issue: Commerce Minister

[I]  245 infrastructure projects delayed, 345 report cost overrun

[I]  FM to meet realty leaders on Thursday to discuss ways to boost the sector

[I]  Government introduces bill to check unregulated deposits, prescribes 10-yr jail

[I]  GST Council to decide when GST can be levied on petroleum products: Government

[I]  ATF under GST? Council unlikely to discuss in July 21 meet

[I]  Apps should collect minimal data like Aadhaar: TRAI chief

[I]  Government to release unemployment data in next 2 months

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  High coal prices, weak rupee leading to a crisis in power generation firms

[I]  Here's how the brands are using 'payback' offers to improve loyalty

[I]  Homegrown PEs to bet on logistics due to demand from e-commerce firms

[I]  Indian shipping cos struggle due to trade war, corrective pollution actions

[I]  Be ready to shell out more for airfares as govt mulls security fee hike

[I]  Data privacy: Govt to wait for Srikrishna panel's report before framing law

[I]  Current framework not enough for privacy, stop-gap measure needed: Trai

[I]  India gearing up to get protectionist tag at WTO after US' import duty hike

[I]  Note ban hit GDP growth by up to 7.3 percentage points: World Bank

 

MARKETS (08:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 11009;  USDINR DGCX: 68.5300;  DJIA Mini: 25188;  FTSE 100 Fut: 7621;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22863;  EUR-USD: 1.1644; Crude Oil (WTI): 68.88;  Gold (Spot): 1224          

Best Regards, ARBIND

19 Jul 2018