MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS

ITS PLEASING TO BE COOL CALM AND COMPOSED BEFORE CHERISHED CELEBRATION; ON FRIDAY THE 13^TH OR WHATEVER. WISHING A COMMEMORATIVE DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 13 Dec 2019

 

Trump has agreed to a limited trade agreement with Beijing that will roll back existing tariff rates on Chinese goods and cancel new levies set to take effect Sunday. As the Federal Reserve kept interest rates low after the recession, critics accused it of courting inflation. Today, with a record expansion and unemployment at a 50-year low, some critics are making the opposite case: The Fed has tightened too much.  The European Central Bank joined the Federal Reserve in pausing a global wave of monetary easing, reacting to early signs that the world economy is stabilizing as international tensions and uncertainties begin to fade. Bank of Canada Gov. Stephen Poloz gave no indication that a near-term interest rate cut is in the offing while Turkey slashes key rate to 12% in bid to rev up economy and Peru holds key rate at nine-year low amid slow growth. Chinese leaders pledged stepped-up efforts to boost slowing growth, as they try to manage a downshift in a maturing economy and fallout from the trade war with the U.S. whereas Fed aims a half-trillion dollar liquidity hose at year-end risks. Indian retail inflation rose to a 40-month high of 5.54% in Nov on higher food prices with food inflation of 10% while industrial output shrinks 3.8% in October, 3rd straight month of fall. Nomura estimates a fresh low of India's economy growth at 4.3% in Q4 2019 while S&P flags growth risk that may lead to India debt downgrade; however Centre may announce increase in FPIs' debt limit to 10% during Budget 2020.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Lagarde follows Draghi’s lead but sounds upbeat tone

[I]  Germany hits back at US pipeline sanction threat

[I]  US and China near trade deal lowering tariffs

[I]  Poland resists EU carbon-neutral ambition

[I]  Fed to keep rates steady until inflation picks up

[I]  Swiss central bank warns on climate change activism

[I]  China rifts put pressure on Canada’s foreign minister

[I]  Turkey slashes key rate to 12% in bid to rev up economy

[I]  EU vows to toughen trade laws after partial collapse of WTO body

 

REUTERS

[I]  UK on track for Brexit as election landslide looms for Johnson

[I]  U.S. offers China tariff rate cut; announcement possibly 'imminent'

[I]  India's rising retail prices stokes worries of stagflation

[I]  Explainer: Reality check for Johnson's Brexit: it's just the beginning

[I]  Japan business mood gloomiest in nearly seven years as trade war bites

[I]  EU welcomes Brexit clarity from Conservative victory

[I]  Senior China diplomat says U.S. seriously damaged hard-won mutual trust

[I]  Japan government to set assumed long-term rate for budget at record low - sources

[I]  'Wise owl' Lagarde outlines broad ECB review, pledges new style

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Christmas Comes Early for Markets as Key Risks Get Taken Out

[I]  Pound Surges Most in 2 1/2 Years as Election Results Filter In

[I]  Indonesia Stirs Ghosts of 1998 With Deficit Debate

[I]  Fed Aims a Half-Trillion Dollar Liquidity Hose at Year-End Risks

[I]  It Took 13 Years for the Crisis to End in U.S. Financial Stocks

[I]  Peru Holds Key Rate at Nine-Year Low Amid Slow Growth

[I]  China’s Yuan Rises Most in a Year as Trump Approves Trade Deal

[I]  Bond Titans Betting on Inflation Gains Find a Friend in the Fed

[I]  Draghi Says Euro-Zone Banking and Fiscal Union Is Inescapable

[I]  China’s Decade of Drama for Yuan Sets New Risks for the 2020s

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Trump Agrees to Limited Trade Deal With China

[I]  Fed’s Lesson: Keep Your Errors Manageable

[I]  ECB Keeps Rates Steady as Lagarde Makes Debut

[I]  China Signals More Efforts to Ensure Economic Growth

[I]  Warren Wealth Tax Would Raise Nearly 30% Less Than Projected, Study Finds

[I]  Bank of Canada Chief Comfortable With Country’s Interest Rate Policy

[I]  Newsletter: The Fed Hangs Loose, Big Government Spending Is Back

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  IIP contracts for third month in Oct, Nov retail inflation spikes

[I]  Food inflation at 10%, highest since January 2014

[I]  The changing landscape of customer engagement model in India

[I]  Centre committed to paying GST compensation to States, says FM

[I]   Power output and GDP growth may not be interlinked

[I]  Carbon emissions per passenger has declined more than 50% since 1990, says IATA chief

[I]  Foul weather: Airlines fly more people in Nov, but on ‘on-time’ performance dips

[I]  S&P flags growth risk that may lead to India debt downgrade

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  More pain looms for Asia’s worst-performing bonds

[I]  How India can solve its $260-billion stressed debt problem

[I]  Rising retail prices stoke fears of stagflation

[I]  IT to get tax relief from redefined ‘intermediary’

[I]  Privatisation of railways gathers speed

[I]  RBI has not put banks on alert: Shaktikanta Das

[I]  Government may impose anti-dumping duty on a chemical from five countries

[I]  India to be an outlier in the global economy: Report

[I]  India's economy to grow at 4.3% in Q4 2019 : Nomura

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Amended IBC sets threshold for initiating corporate insolvency cases

[I]  Budget 2020: Centre may announce increase in FPIs' debt limit to 10%

[I]  Despite slowdown, air traffic grows fastest in November this year at 11.2%

[I]  India's crumbling cities: Falling bridges, rising sea level weigh on Mumbai

[I]  Brokerages see global growth picking up next year, stay cautious on India

[I]  Will downgrade rating if Indian economy doesn't show recovery: S&P

[I]  Retail inflation at 40-month high of 5.54% in Nov on higher food prices

[I]  Industrial output shrinks 3.8% in October, 3rd straight month of fall

[I]  Govt must consider creating, leveraging Brand North East: World Bank report

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

13 Dec 2019