MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS

FRIDAY THE 13^TH OR WHATEVER, SMILE IS THE BEST SOLACE. WISHING A COMFORTING DAY AHEAD. 

Macro Economic News 13 Mar 2020

 

Economists see rising risks of recession world-wide as expanding swaths of commerce shut down in the U.S. and world economies. World markets suffer record meltdown as alarm grows of further disruption to the global economy. VIX rises to highest level since 2008 crisis as fear grips markets. Fed said it would inject $1.5 trillion in bid to prevent ‘Unusual Disruptions’ in markets while economists sharply cut forecasts for the U.S. economy this year, predicting it will contract in the second quarter and raising expectations for a recession. Bank of Canada follows Fed with market liquidity injections and ECB announced a package of bond purchases and cheap loans aimed at mitigating the economic shock while RBI said it has adequate dollar reserves and will conduct sell/buy swaps in the foreign exchange market to ensure adequate dollar liquidity amid the current global rout in markets. Although the shock has sharply raised the probability that the world will suffer a recession, the main challenge now is limiting its severity and preventing a health crisis from becoming a financial crisis. UBS cuts India GDP growth forecast to 5.1 pc for FY21 whereas Finance Ministry tells PSBs to ensure credit not disrupted although Auto sale picks up in Feb but negative outlook for March.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Fed promises to pump trillions into financial markets

[I]  Lagarde triggers investor jitters as ECB launches virus response

[I]  Banks scramble as companies rush to tap credit lines

[I]  Italy faces mounting economic damage from coronavirus

[I]  Iran asks IMF for $5bn to fight coronavirus

[I]  US health body’s reputation takes a knock over coronavirus

[I]  US Senate cancels recess as stimulus talks ramp up

 

REUTERS

[I]  Indian stocks crash to worst day since 2008 as pandemic fuels growth fears

[I]  Markets suffer record meltdown as global coronavirus alarm grows

[I]  India's retail inflation moderates, paves way for RBI action

[I]  World markets rout deepens as virus panic worsens

[I]  India's current account deficit shrinks sharply in October-December quarter

[I]  RBI seeks to ensure dollar liquidity amid coronavirus rout

[I]  Wall Street dazed and confused after worst day since 1987

[I]  U.S. weekly jobless claims drop, but coronavirus layoffs loom 

[I]  Euro zone industry output jumped in January before virus blow

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Unveils Dramatic Measures to Ease Market Strain on Virus

[I]  Banks Urgently Pitch Investors on Lending to Needy Companies

[I]  EU Leaders Under Pressure After ECB Salvo Fails to Calm Markets

[I]  Australian Stocks Could Drop 50% From Peak in Worst Case: IG

[I]  90% of Analysts See BOJ Adding Stimulus Over Virus Hit: Survey

[I]  Why India’s Financial Sector Keeps Blowing Up

[I]  We’re All Japan Now as Virus Drives Low-Rates World Toward Zero

[I]  China Home Sales Plunged in February as Outbreak Intensified

[I]  Bank of Canada Follows Fed With Market Liquidity Injections

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Economists See Rising Risks Of Recession World-Wide

[I]  Fed to Inject $1.5 Trillion in Bid to Prevent ‘Unusual Disruptions’ in Markets

[I]  WSJ Survey: Coronavirus to Trigger U.S. Economic Contraction in Second Quarter

[I]  ECB Steps Up Stimulus, but Doesn’t Cut Rates

[I]  Coronavirus Lockdown Batters Italy’s Fragile Economy

[I]  Trump Could Sign a Coronavirus Emergency Declaration Thursday

[I]  As Recession Looms, Priority is Lessening Severity, Easing Financial Stress

[I]  Behind the Scenes of U.S. Coronavirus Economic Policy-Making

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  Retail inflation falls to 6.58%; factory output goes up 2%

[I]  Taking a cue from the US Fed, RBI likely to cut policy rates

RBI to conduct sell/buy swap for $2 b to halt rupee’s fall, provide dollar liquidity

[I]  Coronavirus: Schools, colleges, cinema halls shut in Delhi till March 31

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Private banks safe: RBI assures state govts

[I]  Virus is giving CEOs across India a headache

[I]  Technically, we will be in recession in most parts of the globe, including India: Mark Mobius

[I]  UBS cuts India GDP growth forecast to 5.1 pc for FY21

[I]  India's current account deficit shrinks sharply in Oct-Dec quarter

[I]  NHAI's debt has risen over 9 times since 2014-15

[I]  Parliament passes amendments to IBC

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Ensure credit not disrupted after bank merger, Finance Ministry tells PSBs

[I]  Beware of competence without humanity or humility

[I]  Potato prices jump by 25% due to crop damage, frequent hailstorms

[I]  After a decade, cash may become king again amid market volatility

[I]  India VIX rises to highest level since 2008 crisis as fear grips markets

[I]  Foreign cruises banned from entering India amid coronavirus spread

[I]  Auto sale picks up in Feb but negative outlook for March over Coronavirus

 

MARKETS (08:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 8905;  USDINR DGCX: 74.8500;  DJIA Mini: 20406;  FTSE 100 Fut: 5238;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 16820;  EUR-USD: 1.1197; Crude Oil (WTI): 31.08;  Gold (Spot): 1563

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
13 Mar 2020