MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS

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Macro Economic News 26 May 2020

The first shoots of an economic recovery from shutdowns caused by the coronavirus pandemic are starting to emerge, but the U.S. is likely to face a sustained period of record-high unemployment. Recovering air travel, hotel bookings and mortgage applications are among the early signs the U.S. economy is slowly creeping back to life although global trade flows saw their largest decline since the financial crisis in the first quarter, as multinationals strained to restructure cross-border supply chains disrupted by the coronavirus pandemic. Australian PM calls for economic overhaul to fuel whereas China considers strengthening policy and lowering lending rates as told by PBOC governor. BOJ's Kuroda says ready to do more for economy after emergency lifts whereas Singapore cuts 2020 GDP outlook again as virus batters economy which Contract 7%, most since its independence.

A Reuters poll predicted that India’s economy is likely to have expanded at its slowest pace in at least eight years in the January-March quarter, partly as a result of the coronavirus clampdown. Ratio of India's public debt to GDP likely to scale a new high in FY21 while Icra pegs GDP growth at 1.9% in Q4 and 4.3% in FY20 resulting in HNIs turning to low-return products like tax-free bonds, FDs preferred choices. Foreigners flee India’s bond market just when it needs them most coinciding Indian brokers consider taking a long view telling clients to write off year. ILO expresses deep concern at ‘suspension’ of labour laws while 40% tourism firms staring at complete shutdown risk in next 6 months as per a report.

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Australia unleashes ‘Neighbours’ to counter China influence

[I]  European consumers stockpile savings, adding to economic drag

[I]  Europe eclipses China in electric vehicle investment

[I]  Some Americans fear their jobs will be lost forever

[I]  Beijing’s message to HK: ‘We waited for you guys long enough’

[I]  Coronavirus crisis provides fertile ground for online fraudsters

[I]  Brussels looks to new taxes to pay off pandemic recovery debt

[I]  German business expectations pick up as lockdown is lifted

REUTERS

[I]  GDP growth in first quarter could be weakest since 2012

[I]  Australian PM calls for economic overhaul to fuel post COVID-19 recovery

[I]  Dollar dips as pandemic recovery hopes buoy risk assets

[I]  China says banks' bad loans at high level due to virus, credit risks accumulate: statement

[I]  Germany wants to end travel warning for 31 European countries - report

[I]  China to strengthen policy, lower lending rates: PBOC governor

[I]  BOJ's Kuroda says ready to do more for economy after emergency lifts

[I]  Singapore cuts 2020 GDP outlook again as virus batters economy

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  China Strongly Condemns U.S. Blacklisting Dozens of Its Firms

[I]  Speculators Target Hong Kong’s Currency on Outflow Concern

[I]  Global Trade Volumes Fall the Most in More Than a Decade

[I]  Foreigners Flee India’s Bond Market Just When It Needs Them Most

[I]  Singapore Economy Could Contract 7%, Most Since Independence

[I]  Indian Brokers Take Long View Telling Clients to Write Off Year

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  For Economy, Worst of Coronavirus Shutdowns May Be Over

[I]  Mortgage Credit Tightens, Creating Drag on Any Economic Recovery

[I]  Steep Drop in Trade Flows Shows Pitfalls of Cross-Border Supply Chains

[I]  In Coronavirus Fight, Uncertainty Emerges as New Enemy

[I]  Summer Jobs Dry Up and Teens Face Highest Unemployment in Decades

[I]  State, Local Budget Woes Create Drag for Recovery Prospects

[I]  Economy Week Ahead: Consumer Confidence, Spending, Inflation

[I]  Economy Recovering, but Unemployment Likely to Remain High, Trump Adviser Says

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India’s first quarter GDP growth is likely to be the weakest since 2012, finds poll

[I]  ILO expresses deep concern at ‘suspension’ of labour laws

[I]  States pitch for maximum permissible use of Consolidated Sinking Find

[I]  Vegetable prices decline in Maharashtra

[I]  Food companies may raise R&D spends post-Covid

[I]  Monsoon may revive in Bay tomorrow

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Employer can maintain EPF input at 12%: Here's how

[I]  How India can become global supply nerve

[I]  India's April crude processing in biggest drop in at least nearly two decades

[I]  State government bonds back in favour, yields drop

[I]  How India can script a self-reliance success story in agriculture

[I]  Medium company turnover limit may be doubled for MSME benefits

[I]  NCLAT quashes NCLT order to make MCA party in all insolvency cases

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Covid-19 crisis: 80% MSMEs in Sonipat hub await their turn to open

[I]  40% tourism firms staring at complete shutdown risk in next 6 mnths: Report

[I]  Ratio of India's public debt to GDP likely to scale a new high in FY21

[I]  Icra pegs GDP growth at 1.9% in Q4 and 4.3% in FY20

[I]  HNIs turn to low-return products; tax-free bonds, FDs preferred choices

MARKETS (10:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 9135;  USDINR DGCX: 75.7150;  DJIA Mini: 24898;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6131;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 21281;  EUR-USD: 1.0919; Crude Oil (WTI): 34.37;  Gold (Spot): 1733

Best Regards, ARBIND

26 May 2020