MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS

FEEL THE BLESSING; IT’S COMING IN ABUNDANCE - EVERY MOMENT. WISHING A PIOUS DAY AHEAD.

Macro Economic News 02 Jul 2020

 

Factory activity around the world showed further signs of recovery in June as governments eased restrictions, but weak demand still weighed on production and employment. A recovery that started out like a V is changing shape - after recovering rapidly from mid-April through mid-June the economy has shown signs of sputtering in the past two weeks. ILO warns about another Covid-19 wave can result in loss of 340 million jobs whereas Fed’s Daly says recovery could take four years if Virus contained. Federal Reserve policymakers are looking at reviving a Great Recession-era promise to keep interest rates low until certain conditions are met, in a bid to deliver a more rapid recovery from the recession. The US administration said companies face legal risks for involvement with entities in China blamed for human-rights abuses. Latin America is seen heading for deepest slump since at least 1901 while OPEC cuts output to lowest since 1991. China’s Central Bank is signalling a slower pace of easing whereas emerging market inflows increase nine-fold in June. India's factory activity contracts for 3rd straight month and new projects fall over 50% in June.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  Europe outperforms Wall Street as investors look across the Atlantic

[I]  Russians set to back Putin’s move to extend his rule

[I]  Hong Kongers look to the exits as China imposes security law

[I]  Johnson the Brexiter offers open door to people of Hong Kong

[I]  Germans rushed to reopen wallets after lockdown eased

[I]  US Treasury takes stake in trucking company with $700m bailout

 

REUTERS

[I]  Record U.S. job growth expected in June, but masks labor market weakness

[I]  Huge acceleration of clean energy innovation needed to meet net zero target - IEA

[I]  Emerging market FX pickup exposed to reversal after new coronavirus surge: Reuters poll

[I]  U.S. House passes bill to sanction Chinese banks over Hong Kong

[I]  Fed revisits idea of pledging to keep interest rates low

[I]  Russians grant Putin right to extend his rule until 2036 in landslide vote

[I]  Emerging market inflows increase ninefold in June -IIF

[I]  Fed mulls promises for the future, appears to discount yield curve control

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Fed Mulls Explicit Forward Guidance, Stays Wary of Yield Targets

[I]  OPEC Cuts Output to Lowest Since 1991 as Virus Slams Oil Demand

[I]  Yield-Curve Control Experts Debate How Fed Could Juice the Yen

[I]  Aussie Bets Diverge as Virus Fears Collide With Growth Optimism

[I]  India’s Growing Economic Reliance on China May be Tough to Break

[I]  China’s Central Bank Is Signaling a Slower Pace of Easing

[I]  Latin America Seen Heading for Deepest Slump Since at Least 1901

[I]  Recovery Could Take 4 Years If Virus Contained, Fed’s Daly Says

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Debated Options to Provide More Economic Support

[I]  A Recovery That Started Out Like a V Is Changing Shape

[I]  Fed’s $600 Billion Main Street Lending Program Sees Lukewarm Interest

[I]  Global Manufacturing Shows Fresh Signs of Recovery

[I]  U.S. Warns CEOs Over Supply Chains Tied to Rights Violations in China

[I]  USMCA Takes Effect but Trade Tensions Remain

[I]  U.S. Treasury to Lend $700 Million to Trucking Firm YRC

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  GST collection in June exceeds ₹90,000 crore

[I]  Manufacturing PMI improved to 47.2 in June, butbusiness conditions continue to deteriorate

[I]  Consumers at the receiving end as power bills give them a rude shock

[I]  No change in small savings rates for July-Sept quarter

[I]  Customs department gives clearance to cargo imported from China

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Next up: Trade curbs on countries illegally holding Indian land

[I]  MSCI defers raising India’s weight in global indices

[I]  Auto sales improve in June

[I]  Aid for NBFCs come with riders attached

[I]  Private equity tap to run dry for realty firms

[I]  GST Council may look at rationalising rates

[I]  India's factory activity contracts for 3rd straight month in June

[I]  Curbs on companies from countries illegally holding Indian land

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  Digital payments rebound in June after blip in April transactions

[I]  Another Covid-19 wave can result in loss of 340 million jobs: ILO

[I]  Govt committed to reforms, make tax structure simple: FM on GST day

[I]  No cash benefits for ESIC subscribers without bank account details

[I]  World Bank grants India $750 mn emergency funding to help small businesses

[I]  New projects fall over 50% in June as coronavirus lockdown takes hold

[I]  June records 'excess' rainfall, good precipitation expected in July: IMD

 

MARKETS (09:30 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10492;  USDINR DGCX: 75.6925;  DJIA Mini: 25621;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6159;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22146;  EUR-USD: 1.1263; Crude Oil (WTI): 39.84  Gold (Spot): 1769

 

Best Regards, ARBIND

02 Jul 2020