MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS

Wishing Happy Harvest

On this very auspicious day, the day for starting the celebration of great harvest and thankfulness to the environment enabling our existence on the earth, I express my gratitude to you, everyone, and everything around.

Resting everything with God and vesting everything in you all, I intend to walk the path forward. Being assured of your blessing, I initiate with a little piece of macro-economic updates.

Best Regards

Arbind

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Macro-Economic News 13 Jan 2021

Economists believe that the economy would continue to need strong government-support while WHO anticipated the world won’t achieve 'herd immunity in 2021' despite Covid-19 vaccines. Thailand govt unveils $7 billion stimuli to counter coronavirus impact. Steep job losses drove up unemployment across the globe that, in some economies, is worse than in 1939. The number of companies facing permanent closure is increasing.

Global debt continues to rise.  2020 debt almost equals global GDP making total debt around 3.7x of global GDP. Biden plans to tackle the $1.6 tn student loan. Global Banks warn of market chaos if a court were to abolish Libor. China is closer to approving its first public REIT to ease-out the debt coinciding with US Muni-Bond trading at Extraordinarily Expensive Valuations.

Germany seeks a global corporate tax deal with the Biden administration. US Dollar and other matured currencies continue to decline while emerging market currencies continue to gain strength. Brighter US growth prospects challenge assumptions about the FED’s next move. The market appears factoring hawkish FED expectations while the EU is on the verge of a double-dip recession and South Korea’s jobless hitting 10-years high.

Indian markets are trading at 40x valuation, pushing SENSEX, a shy closer to 50K. A total of 11 private Indian firms having a combined valuation of nearly a third of the Indian GDP have made it to the list of 500 most valuable companies globally; India ranked 10th on the chart.

Indian retail inflation (Dec) eases to within RBI's 2% to 6% target range on easing vegetable prices, whereas manufacturing and mining pulled down the Industrial growth shrink to 1.9%. Economists believe that it would be too early for arriving on a consensus for direction on policy rate as 2021 may set a litmus test for retail and SME loans despite Indian GDP expecting a real growth in double-digit. India’s Apex Court suspends contentious farm laws and forms a panel for talks.

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