MACRO ECONOMIC NEWS

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Macro Economic News 11 Jun 2020

 

The OECD warns of deep economic scars and the global economy suffering the biggest peace-time downturn in a century before it emerges next year from recession. It forecasts, second pandemic wave would inflict big economic cost, and a deeper recession in UK than other rich nations. It cautions - a second wave of lockdowns would deal a terrible blow to a global economy already facing a severe contraction. OECD India economist sees India’s economic growth profile will be ‘W’ shaped if the virus outbreak recurs.

 
The U.S. Federal Reserve signalled it plans years of extraordinary support for an economy facing a torturous slog back from the pandemic, with policymakers projecting the economy to shrink 6.5% in 2020 and the unemployment rate to be 9.3% at year's end. FED officials also signalled plans to keep interest rates near zero for years (through 2022) while the U.S. Labor Department said that a “misclassification error” has caused the unemployment rate to be lower than it would have been otherwise. China’s factory-gate deflation accelerates as Industrial prices fell at their fastest pace in more than four years as the pandemic crushed global demand for commodities.

Fitch sees revenue destruction of $8.5 trillion in global corporate portfolio by 2022 while it sees the Indian economy growing 9.5% next fiscal but warns of high debt-to-GDP ratio could strain India's sovereign rating although S&P reaffirms India’s BBB- sovereign ratings retaining at the lowest investment grade for 13th year in a row. A study finds 80 per cent working Indians experiencing income loss while OECD said that India's economy could contract by as much as 7.3% in FY21 in the event of second Covid outbreak.

 

FINANCIAL TIMES

[I]  OECD warns of deep economic scars from pandemic

[I]  Bumper CEO stock awards dwarf salary sacrifice

[I]  EU states warn Brussels of hard Brexit risk to coronavirus plans

[I]  Trump’s embrace of Modi stokes India-China stand-off in Himalayas

[I]  China faces outcry after premier admits 40% of population struggles

[I]  Germany warns Israel over West Bank annexation plans

[I]  OECD forecasts deeper recession in UK than other rich nations

 

REUTERS

[I]  Fed vows to support U.S. economy's 'long road' to recovery after dire 2020

[I]  OECD sees deepest peace-time slump in a century

[I]  U.S. economy has hit turning point -White House's Kudlow

[I]  Possible Fed move to cap yield rise could further weaken U.S. dollar

[I]  Zimbabwe president says currency under attack as prices spiral

 

BLOOMBERG 

[I]  Powell Emphasizes Inequality in Pandemic-Fueled Job Losses

[I]  Treasuries Bulls Energized After Fed Sees Years of Easy Policy

[I]  New Zealand Retail Sales Jump, But Still Trail Pre-Covid Levels

[I]  Virus Exposes ‘Systemic Risk’ in Australia Pensions Industry

[I]  Even With $500 Billion Forex Warchest, RBI Won’t Let Rupee Climb

[I]  U.K. Realtors See Surging Demand for Green Space in Housing

[I]  Lack of Liquidity in India Market Fuels Woes at Weaker Borrowers

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

[I]  Fed Officials Project No Rate Increases Through 2022

[I]  Coronavirus Pandemic Makes Jobless Rate Calculation Harder

[I]  Pandemic Continues to Weigh on U.S. Consumer Prices

[I]  Coronavirus Obliterated the Best African-American Job Market on Record

[I]  China’s Factory-Gate Deflation Accelerates

[I]  Parsing the Fed: How the June Statement Changed From April

[I]  Newsletter: Uncertain Future, Uncertain Data, Uncertain Forecasts

[I]  Second Pandemic Wave Would Inflict Big Economic Cost, Says OECD

 

BUSINESS LINE

[I]  India’s economic growth profile will be ‘W’ shaped if the virus outbreak recurs: OECD India economist

[I]  Global aviation industry to notch up $84-billion loss in 2020: IATA

[I]  Fitch sees revenue destruction of $8.5 trillion in global corporate portfolio by 2022

[I]  Fitch sees the economy growing 9.5% next fiscal

[I]  S&P reaffirms India’s BBB- sovereign ratings

 

ECONOMIC TIMES

[I]  Forex reserves closing in on $500-billion mark

[I]  India alleges EU-UK hurting agricultural exports

[I]  80 per cent working Indians experience income loss, says study

[I]  High debt-to-GDP ratio could strain India's sovereign rating: Fitch

[I]  S&P retains India's rating at lowest investment grade for 13th year in a row

[I]  India's economy could contract by as much as 7.3% in FY21 in the event of second Covid outbreak: OECD

[I]  India inflation likely to have hit six-month low in May: Reuters poll

 

BUSINESS STANDARD

[I]  India to drive global gas demand post-slowdown, output to rise too: IEA

[I]  Indian Oil cranks up refinery runs to over 80% as demand doubles in May

[I]  Household savings may rise in Q1, then moderate, say RBI officials

[I]  Govt considers infrastructure push, direct cash transfers to boost demand

[I]  RBI staff studies on NBFCs call for more policy help to avoid systemic risk

 

MARKETS (09:00 am)

[I]  SGX NIFTY Fut: 10074;  USDINR DGCX: 75.9100;  DJIA Mini: 26750;  FTSE 100 Fut: 6262;  NIKKEI 225 Fut: 22882;  EUR-USD: 1.1376; Crude Oil (WTI): 38.46;  Gold (Spot): 1733

 

Best Regards, ARBIND
11 Jun 2020